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Forums - Gaming - Destiny 1st Month Annyversary Stats (Avg. 3.2 million players per day)

PR Math is an amazing thing, especially when its blatantly miscalculated misrepresented:
The average player plays Destiny 1.8 times a day.
The average player has played Destiny 20.9 times.

These numbers contradict one another, did no one at Bungie bother to check? The numbers are literally impossible if they are using the same "average player". In a month, based on the first number, the "average player" would have played 54 times. Based on the second number, the "average player" played 0.7 times a day. Obviously they used different calculations which is a very annoying thing to see, I hate shit like this.

Anyone who uses "averages" to tell you something needs to burn in statistics-hell for lying.

----- Math Asside -----

For anyone curious, these two numbers together mean that the "average" is skewed from a heavy load. The average of the first number is calculated over all players, the average of the second number is calculated over 30 days. Had the first average been more a median than an average, you'd have a more steady line in the second number, leading to an overall larger average than 20.9 times. Obviously its not a median though, nor is it near the median in fact (as you can tell by the fact that 20.9<<54) this means that both numbers are bloated somewhere (think a histogram with a huge spike somewhere), the average ends up being very different from the median and we have an askew graph.

Actually... why did they even publish these numbers.



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ethomaz has replaced the GT fix with Destiny,be funny to see how destiny lasts with the DLC

seems destiny has to be compared to every other genre and top game out there as a new IP and grinding is suddenly not a part of gaming or gaming history anywhere,strange isn't it

i find destiny a blast,good fun shooter with 6-7m sold and a plan to back it up with DLC content,hope it sticks around because it really pushed PS4's,great tie up form sony



  

I smell like the dark forest of Dwemereth in the morning mist                                                   fanboy til i'm bankrupt

Vena said:

PR Math is an amazing thing, especially when its blatantly miscalculated misrepresented:
The average player plays Destiny 1.8 times a day.
The average player has played Destiny 20.9 times.

These numbers contradict one another, did no one at Bungie bother to check? The numbers are literally impossible if they are using the same "average player". In a month, based on the first number, the "average player" would have played 54 times. Based on the second number, the "average player" played 0.7 times a day. Obviously they used different calculations which is a very annoying thing to see, I hate shit like this.

Anyone who uses "averages" to tell you something needs to burn in statistics-hell for lying.

----- Math Asside -----

For anyone curious, these two numbers together mean that the "average" is skewed from a heavy load. The average of the first number is calculated over all players, the average of the second number is calculated over 30 days. Had the first average been more a median than an average, you'd have a more steady line in the second number, leading to an overall larger average than 20.9 times. Obviously its not a median though, nor is it near the median in fact (as you can tell by the fact that 20.9<<54) this means that both numbers are bloated somewhere (think a histogram with a huge spike somewhere), the average ends up being very different from the median and we have an askew graph.

Actually... why did they even publish these numbers.


They do the avg per day and sum it for the 30 days...

Day 1: 0.5 avg

Day 2: 0.8 avg

Day 3: 1.1 avg

Day 4: 0.9 avg

...

 

For the 1 day they do the overall average... that is the difference.



ethomaz said:

They sum the avg per day like:

Day 1: 0.5 avg

Day 2: 0.8 avg

Day 3: 1.1 avg

Day 4: 0.9 avg

...


Hum? That's not how it would work given their first statement. The second number is calculated over the thirty-day average, if you tried adding up then the first number wouldn't make sense unless you had something that was an almost exponential decay to end up at <2 given that at launch it would have been a HUGE number (especially with the many crashes, which would no doubt calculated *times played a day* over and over).

So either we have an exponential decay, or the average is being misrepresented by different calculations to acquire an average.

It would be:

Day 1: Very Many

Day 2: Very Many

...

...

...

Day 30: Very few.

Otherwise the average doesn't make sense. This is why averages are a bullshit number, medians are what one should be giving if they had something to say statistically. It doesn't make much sense as a whole, especially the "3 million per day" average as well, unless... we really are super front-loaded and bloated, then you could still get all these numbers using similar average parameters but you'd an exponential decay.



kowenicki said:

online only.... of course the stats look this way. lol.  people are still finshing the main game.  apples and oranges comparisons right there.

Cod and Bf are mostly bought for their online aspects. Sure they put some money into the story side and try to make something. But their primary concern is the Online. Im not sure how you think this is apples to apples. If you would like to dispute this feel free to check this out.

http://www.vg247.com/2013/08/13/call-of-duty-100-million-players-32-quadrillion-shots-fired-to-date/

So Cod has 100 million people that have played online. From some random site says 134.2 millions sales from the online Call of Duties. 

TheNelsconey said:
Here is BF4 numbers http://bf4stats.com/

I remember when Bf3 was 100,000 just on ps3 alone. Even more on PC. Cant believe how much the game has fallen. 

 

OT. Congrats to Destiny. Hopefully this gen continues with the new ips.



EVERY GAMERS WORST NIGHTMARE...THE TANGLING CABLES MONSTER!

            

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Vena said:
ethomaz said:

They sum the avg per day like:

Day 1: 0.5 avg

Day 2: 0.8 avg

Day 3: 1.1 avg

Day 4: 0.9 avg

...


Hum? That's not how it would work given their first statement. The second number is calculated over the thirty-day average, if you tried adding up then the first number wouldn't make sense unless you had something that was an almost exponential decay to end up at <2 given that at launch it would have been a HUGE number (especially with the many crashes, which would no doubt calculated *times played a day* over and over).

So either we have an exponential decay, or the average is being misrepresented by different calculations to acquire an average.

It would be:

Day 1: Very Many

Day 2: Very Many

...

...

...

Day 30: Very few.

Otherwise the average doesn't make sense. This is why averages are a bullshit number, medians are what one should be giving if they had something to say statistically. It doesn't make much sense as a whole, especially the "3 million per day" average as well, unless... we really are super front-loaded and bloated, then you could still get all these numbers using similar average parameters but you'd an exponential decay.

Day 1: 10 players / 10 logins

Day 2: 30 players / 60 logins

Day 3: 20 players / 30 logins

Day 4: 50 players / 150 logins

* Day 4 is suppose to be a weekend for example *

Overall average: 250 logins / 110 players = ~2.2

Sum avg per day: 1 + 2 + 1.5 + 3 = 7.5

 

if I do overall avg x num of days I have 8.8 but when I sum per day I have 7.5.



That's a lot of players for an allegedly bad game :^)



Panama said:
That's a lot of players for an allegedly bad game :^)

Yes, such a "bad" game all these millions are playing ! Oh well there will always be haters, don't count on them dissapearing.



I will tell something I didn't said before...

 If Destiny was launched/developed but company AlphaDogs then the reviewers will be saying it is an amazing and the next big thing in the shooter world.

But it was Bungie and they trashed it because didn't meet his super high expectations.

Give time to gamers/players decide

PS. Raid itself have a content of a small game... if they launch one Raid each 3 months I will be extremally happy.



ethomaz said:

Day 1: 10 players / 10 logins

Day 2: 30 players / 60 logins

Day 3: 20 players / 30 logins

Day 4: 50 players / 150 logins

* Day 4 is suppose to be a weekend for example *

Overall average: 250 logins / 110 players = ~2.2

Sum avg per day: 1 + 2 + 1.5 + 3 = 7.5

 

if I do overall avg x num of days I have 8.8 but when I sum per day I have 7.5.


Ahh I see what you meant, they are doing a sum average of the days rather than average over days.

Still a bit bizarre for the sum average to be so far removed from the average multiple, but there's not enough information to map this out but you won't get such discrepencies with a shallow linear fit. An sharp fall-off is pretty normal for MMOs, so that likely explains it but the front would be bloated enough to weigh out the average to look "big". That also explains why they are using a mean over the much more accurate (for this scenario) median.

I suspect that is why we are not given a median, because if the median and average (of 1.8, or average plays per player) were close, then there's no way for the sum and multiple averages to be so far apart. So the average >> median in this scenario. This is a pretty text-book case, actually: https://www.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/statmistakes/skeweddistributions.html