Sales:

YEAR SALES
1 YEAR	16,000,000	4,800,000
2 YEAR	24,000,000	6,300,000
3 YEAR	21,000,000	4,200,000
4 YEAR	17,000,000	2,750,000
5 YEAR	11,000,000	1,000,000
6 YEAR	5,000,000	700,000
7 YEAR	2,000,000	170,000

Legs (rate of first year)

YEAR SALES
1 YEAR	100% first year	100% first year
2 YEAR	150% first year	130% first year
3 YEAR	130% first year	90% first year
4 YEAR	105% first year	60% first year
5 YEAR	70% first year	20% first year
6 YEAR	30% first year	15% first year
7 YEAR	12% first year	5% first year

Wii lifetime = x6.3 first year

GC lifetime = x4.5 first year

Wii legs > GC legs

Wii U sales with the Wii legs:

1Y:  3.2m

2Y: 4.8m

3Y: 4.2m

4Y: 3.4m

5Y: 2.25m

6Y: 960K

7Y: 380K

LIfetime: 21,5m

Wii U with the GC legs:

1Y: 3.2m

2Y: 4.2m

3Y: 2.9m

4Y: 1.9m

5Y: 650K

6Y: 480K

7Y: 120K

Lifetime: 16m

A somewhat unsurprising outcome, given how much competition the PS2 gave the GC.

Cool! I however basing Wii U's legs on it's first year is problematic as it was a disaster. Many similar releases (smash, mario kart) that occured early in GC and Wii's lifecycle are showing up later on Wii U.

good thread

So the Wii U will sell less than 16 million.

If will have the GC legs... if will have the DS legs, will sell more than 50 million.

great effort and great thread! I guess you're comparing data from the launch? In that case we should know fairly soon whether Wii U has Wii legs, or GC legs...

Now, the DS legs.

Sales:

YEAR SALES
1 YEAR	11,000,000
2 YEAR	21,000,000
3 YEAR	30,000,000
4 YEAR	30,000,000
5 YEAR	27,000,000
6 YEAR	21,000,000
7 YEAR	9,000,000
8 YEAR	3,000,000
9 YEAR	800,000

legs:

YEAR SALES
1 YEAR	100% first year
2 YEAR	190% first year
3 YEAR	270% first year
4 YEAR	270% first year
5 YEAR	250% first year
6 YEAR	190% first year
7 YEAR	80% first year
8 YEAR	30% first year
9 YEAR	8% first year

That's interesting; your Wii legs suggestion falls right in the middle of my own lifetime projection running since least year; 18-25 million. For now; it appears as if the lower end of that will be the end result (21.5 or less, in other words).