Stever89 said: Here's one that is predicting the Wii's fall, and this was only a month ago... It is Pachter though. Link.

I have always stated Pachter lacks the insight and understanding despite his job description. He has been way off so many times, I don't understand why he's being invited to speak and quoted so often... If he ends up right on some accounts IMO it's by pure chance (you can't be wrong all the time or at least that's unlikely).

MikeB said: @ Stevr89 Why would you think that they'd all go out and buy it in one year though? By the time that Mario Sunshine, Zelda, Mario Party 4, Metroid, Super Smash Bros, were out, about 2 or 3 years after launch, at max there were 10 million GameCubes out there. Mario Kart was released during this time as well. So more than half of the Wii userbase may be hardcore Nintendo fans. How large of a percentage would you think? And you haven't answered my question, now that the Wii has reached GC levels, is it just going to stop? Not all GameCube users have upgraded yet. So I'll stick to my prediction 2008 will be an excellent year for the Wii, but in 2009 the PS3 will outsell it. For the XBox 360 these effects will take effect much sooner, 2008 it will be beaten considerably. All major XBox games have already seen sequels on the 360. The PS3 is yet to begin, starting with GTA IV, GT5 Prologue and most importantly MGS4. But that's only the beginning.

I'm starting to think we're running in circles.

Yes, the owners of the GameCube were very much Nintendo fanboys. They almost had to be because of lack of quality software outside of Nintendo games. Also, since the GameCube didn't attract a lot of casuals/mainstream users, depsite being a lower price, nearly all of the userbase was, in a sense, hardcore Nintendo fans. The N64 had the same problem. Attracted mostly Nintendo fans. It's why Nintendo's consoles have decreased in sales, because the number of "hardcore Nintendo fans" is decreasing (as less and less people are around to remember the NES days).

But this generation is different. The Wii is attracting the casuals, so instead of Nintendo only getting the "hardcore Nintendo fans," they're going to get the casuals and many hardcore users. Sony, on the other hand, will get mostly hardcore Sony fans. Luckily for them, there's probably a good amount of them out there, probably to the level of the N64 or so. But not enough to beat the massive amounts of casuals that will sworm to the Wii, for it's cheap price and fun, pick up and play, games. Sony doesn't have the cheap price, and will never beat the Wii when it comes to price, unless the Wii sells out for the next 2 years and the Wii never gets a price cut. Sony does have some good casuals games coming, but it just won't help it enough.

MikeB said: Stever89 said: Here's one that is predicting the Wii's fall, and this was only a month ago... It is Pachter though. Link. I have always stated Pachter lacks the insight and understanding despite his job description. He has been way off so many times, I don't understand why he's being invited to speak and quoted so often... If he ends up right on some accounts IMO it's by pure chance (you can't be wrong all the time or at least that's unlikely).

Well I can't find the thread that has all the predictions in it. There were a good amount of them. And I'd assume many of them were professional and pretty much highly regarded.

@ Stever89

I think the PS3's appeal will be much broader, I think the experimental new games and Blu-Ray appeal will help to broaden its appeal beyond the sequels of proven franchices.

I don't agree that every casual Wii user is a lost potential PS3 customer. Games like Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 will probably appeal to many FPS fans, a gerne the PS2 was relatively weak at, there's also potential with regard to strategy games (also due to mouse & keyboard support).

Thanks Rol. I think there was a thread on VGChartz that linked to that. But that works just as well.

Stever89, running in circles eh? Don't you think this discussion mimics those you're having with a certain vgchartz member from Lithuania already? =)

Stever89 said: MikeB said: ecurbj said:   I do think Blu-Ray movie functionality speaks to more kinds of people for the long run than Wii-mote gaming. If the PS3 can continue to offer the best package they could capitalize on this introducing even more casuals to gaming. Yes, the movie industry is much bigger than the gaming industry. So it's true that the blu-ray speaks to more people than the wiimote may. But unfortunately, at least for 3rd parties, these blu-ray player owners may not buy any games. So Sony will win with blu-ray royalties, but 3rd parties will lose. And when they start losing they jump ship. And we see what happens when they jump ship. That and regular blu-ray players will become cheaper than the PS3 by the time the masses want blu-ray and are ready for it. So they'll end up buying a regular player, and not a PS3.

Btw internet says hi.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080124-growth-of-gaming-in-2007-far-outpaces-movies-music.html

Last chart in page

MikeB said: @ Stever89 But this generation is different. The Wii is attracting the casuals, so instead of Nintendo only getting the "hardcore Nintendo fans," they're going to get the casuals and many hardcore users. Sony, on the other hand, will get mostly hardcore Sony fans. I think the PS3's appeal will be much broader, I think the experimental new games and Blu-Ray appeal will help to broaden its appeal beyond the sequels of proven franchices. I don't that agree every casual Wii user is a lost potential PS3 customer. Games like Resistance 2 and Killzone 2 will probably appeal to many FPS fans, a gerne the PS2 was relatively weak at, there's also potential with regard to strategy games (also due to mouse & keyboard support).

I agree with the bolded part. I think the difference is I just don't think there'll be enough of them to counter the Wii sales. Yes, a PS2 sale last generation probably was a lost sale for the GC/Xbox, and I think that still holds true. Maybe not as much, with the different experiences, but in the end, I just think it'll be enough to beat the Wii.

Punisher said: Stever89 said: ... I do think Blu-Ray movie functionality speaks to more kinds of people for the long run than Wii-mote gaming. If the PS3 can continue to offer the best package they could capitalize on this introducing even more casuals to gaming. Yes, the movie industry is much bigger than the gaming industry. So it's true that the blu-ray speaks to more people than the wiimote may. But unfortunately, at least for 3rd parties, these blu-ray player owners may not buy any games. So Sony will win with blu-ray royalties, but 3rd parties will lose. And when they start losing they jump ship. And we see what happens when they jump ship. That and regular blu-ray players will become cheaper than the PS3 by the time the masses want blu-ray and are ready for it. So they'll end up buying a regular player, and not a PS3. Btw internet says hi. http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080124-growth-of-gaming-in-2007-far-outpaces-movies-music.html Last chart in page

Well the fact that moves on average cost $20, whereas games cost around $50, and the revenue of games and moves were close, I would say that the movie industry is still larger.

Maybe not as large as I thought though. I'll retract my statement. New statement:

"The movie industry is on par with the gaming industry."

I'm not sure that helps his statement more or less though.

Edit: Slimebeast... yes, my "friend". Haven't seen him in a while. 

people...the only reason this system is not number 1 is because of the price...200 bucks people will buy.....