$200 price tag + mainstream game (Home?) until then...

Games that appeal to your target market are what will attract buyers from your target market.

@ Stever89

I think the GameCube looked too much like a kids-only console. I also think Mario64 or Mario Galacy >>> Luigi's Mansion.



Buying a HDTV perhaps, seeing the difference between games quality, interesting extra's like Blu-Ray, DVR, Home, etc.

The Wii does an excellent job to introduce more people to gaming, however I think quite a few may want to extend that experience in the next couple of years.



Have a link? I guess they didn't do research. To me it was quite obvious the Wii would do a lot better than the GameCube did.

Words Of Wisdom said: Games that appeal to your target market are what will attract buyers from your target market.

Wow that was deep. But you forgot something.

"Games that appeal to your target market are what will attract buyers from your target market unless they've already been attracted to a competitor."

MikeB said: @ Stever89 1) If the Wii is mostly selling to GC owners, why didn't the GC sell faster at the beginning? I think the GameCube looked too much like a kids-only console. I also think Mario64 or Mario Galacy >>> Luigi's Mansion. So you expect it to stop selling now...? Just because the games are better doesn't necessarily mean that people will run out and buy the console faster. I mean, I would bet that many "Nintendo fans" would have been jumping ship thinking that the only games they would get would be Zelda, Mario and Smash bros. Three great games, but hardly enough to warrant the massive sellouts that have been occurring across NA and in Others, and somewhat in Japan. Why spend another $200 on the PS3 when it gets to that point to play more games that you don't have time for? Buying a HDTV perhaps, seeing the difference between games quality, interesting extra's like Blu-Ray, DVR, Home, etc. Quality in the games will be there, when 3rd parties actually start trying. The Wii does an excellent job to introduce more people to gaming, however I think quite a few may want to extend that experience in the next couple of years. Since the original point of your thread was about getting casuals, I won't say that some won't. But will it be enough? Of the 45 million people that expanded their experience last generation, how many will more will do that this generation? And how many will the PS3 get compared to the 360? Just like the industry predictions and outlooks were correct when they said the Wii would be lucky to sell 15 million lifetime, and that the PS3 would be ahead by 2008? Have a link? I guess they didn't do research. To me it was quite obvious the Wii would do a lot better than the GameCube did. There was actually a thread about it a month or so ago. It had about 20 different places that were declaring the Wii's doom and the PS3 victory. And even today there are still some that the PS3 will beat the Wii in the long... long... long... run. Without a search function, there's no way to find the thread. Maybe someone could dig it up if they posted in it.

 

@ Stever89

Why would you think GameCube fans haven't been upgrading to the Wii in big numbers?

The GameCube is discontinued and this combined with sequels to its most popular games have been released for the Wii. A new Mario, a new Zelda, a new Mario Party, a new Metroid, a new Super Smash Bros, a new Paper Mario, etc. Why wouldn't GameCube fans want to upgrade, what's stopping them? Price? Waiting for Mario Kart?

MikeB said: @ Stever89 Why would you think GameCube fans haven't been upgrading to the Wii in big numbers? The GameCube is discontinued and this combined with sequels to its most popular games have been released for the Wii. A new Mario, a new Zelda, a new Mario Party, a new Metroid, a new Super Smash Bros, a new Paper Mario, etc. Why wouldn't GameCube fans want to upgrade, what's stopping them? Price? Waiting for Mario Kart?

Being that the Wii has outsold the Gamecube, games have outsold their Gamecube counterparts lifetime sales in 6 months, they system is still selling at 4 times the rate the Gamecube did and is supply limited all implies that the Wii is selling to a (much) larger audience than the Gamecube did.

Certainly, the (roughly) 5 Million die-hard Nintendo fans have all (probably) bought a Wii but I see little reason to believe that all (or even most) of the 15+ Million Gamecube owners who do not fall into this category have bought a Wii yet.

MikeB said: @ Stever89 Why would you think GameCube fans aren't upgrading to the Wii in numbers? The GameCube is discontinued and this combined with sequels to its most popular games have been released for the Wii. A new Mario, a new Zelda, a new Mario Party, a new Metroid, a new Super Smash Bros, a new Paper Mario, etc. Why wouldn't GameCube fans want to upgrade, what's stopping them? Price? Waiting for Mario Kart?

Why would you think that they'd all go out and buy it in one year though? By the time that Mario Sunshine, Zelda, Mario Party 4, Metroid, Super Smash Bros, were out, about 2 or 3 years after launch, at max there were 10 million GameCubes out there. Mario Kart was released during this time as well.

And you haven't answered my question, now that the Wii has reached GC levels, is it just going to stop?

Edit: Not to mention that in this time the GC dropped in price twice I believe, whereas the Wii hasn't seen a new color, pricedrop, bundles, or anything, even though the GC saw 2 price drops, at least one bundle (I believe) and extra colors. 

Here's one that is predicting the Wii's fall, and this was only a month ago... It is Pachter though.

Link. 

@ Stevr89

So more than half of the Wii userbase may be hardcore Nintendo fans. How large of a percentage would you think?



Not all GameCube users have upgraded yet. So I'll stick to my prediction 2008 will be an excellent year for the Wii, but in 2009 the PS3 will outsell it. For the XBox 360 these effects will take effect much sooner, 2008 it will be beaten considerably. All major XBox games have already seen sequels on the 360.

The PS3 is yet to begin, starting with GTA IV, GT5 Prologue (will sell much less than the full version though) and most importantly MGS4. But that's only the beginning.