By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create/Famitsu Sales (9/15 - 9/21) Bayonetta 2 39k

GribbleGrunger said:

it's a cheap alternative for emerging markets such as China (when Sony release there)


???

Its not cheap at all. The little console thing itself is cheap (in America, you have no idea how it will even be priced in other countries. For example, in my poorer EU homeland, electronics and gaming devices are stupidly expensive to the point where its cheaper for me to send family things by mail and pay inport fees), but the memory cards alone are prohibitively expensive and, from experience, I can tell you that emerging markets means people who are much more careful with their money in the long run.



Around the Network
gabzjmm23 said:
i'm realistic so a Bayo game won't really sell that much. i don't know why a lot of people are overreacting.
it is just really a handheld market nowadays in Japan. and not into consoles. hopefully it would be better for all consoles before we reach the end of the year.


There is a belief around that exclusive games have to sell well.



i expected that number for bayo 2 but the wii u number is that bad?



 

for the people why 3ds is up.... because of all those broken 3ds analog :P



 

ouch at bayonetta 2.
which really is a shame.



Around the Network
vivster said:

I'm going to be smug right back at you when I'm playing it :P

Yes, Nintendo financed it. And it may be true that they approached Sony and Microsoft for funding as well. But in the end they chose Nintendo and Wii U exclusivity, which means they will at least be expecting that it won't sell well.

They had the choice between releasing on a platform where there aren't as many potential buyers and not releasing at all. So financial success was never an option. But they won't go hungry since for them the game already paid off and moneywise the game doesn't need to sell a lot. At least not for Platinum.


They didn't choose Nintendo, the game was canned, it was Nintendo or nothing. Now, it's another thing to see if this venture was profitable for Nintendo, certainly their expectations were higher.

 

OT: It may be negative for the WiiU, but SSB for 3DS is a success for Nintendo as a whole. It may cross 2m with little effort. And YK2 will get to 3m before 2015, this week is up in MC! And YK is still charting.

Quite amazed at DQX, it will get to 100k, exceeding everyone's expectations.

Now, Bayoflop, fortunately they did lowered our expectations, but Nintendo needs to learn how to publish this kind of titles. It's going to be a really tough road if they pretend to survive only on their classic IPs. This title was a great move, but very poorly executed. They better start praying for some legs.

HW minor bump was expected, even if it sales were higher it wasn't going to go very high without a bundle. I mean, after MK had such a small effect, it wasn't really going to be a huge one for this title.

O.o XOne is really sad, that's too low for, is it the 3rd week?



Incubi said:
CosmicSex said:
I don't really approve of Beyonetta on Wii U as exclusive because according to the data, all that has happened is that the majority of the fanbase has been separated from the series. Games should follow the audience IMO. Games shouldn't be used as ransom to make you buy into a product. This happens in all sorts of industries though. Its like 75% of their audience just vanished. They are going to need every penny the sold the series for.

Just like when Sony snatched Final Fantasy 7 from Nintendo back in 97? Or when Nintendo snatched Monster Hunter from PSP? If the franchise is strong enough, the fanbase will follow. Bayonetta was just not nearly strong enough to do much of anything, atleast in Japan. 


No, FF7 was NOT POSSIBLE on N64.   Because as most people know, and N64 version was being prepared.   And monster hunter was made popluar on PSP, but at least Nintendo had an audience to keep the game relevent.  There is no evidence to suggest that Monster Hunter stole PSP's base.  Really bad examples.  

And Beyonetta was strong until she couldn't preform on the Wii U.    Now you call her weak?



ryuzaki57 said:
81% of Bayo1 day one buyers didn't come for Bayo2. Enough said.

never coming to PS4



Click HERE and be happy 

BeElite said:
39k, that cant be good.

Wii Party U sold 76k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold nearly 800k to date.

Lego City Undercover sold 18k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold just over 100k to date.

The Wonderful 101 sold a little under 6k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold 52k to date.

Dragon Quest X sold 35k in week 1 in Japan (now at 200k).

DKC:TF sold 38k in week 1 in Japan (currently at 112k without a holiday season).

Amongst non-launch titles, it seems like games that do reasonably well typically get multipliers of the order of 5-10x within about a year, with 10x obviously being for the longer-legged titles. 5x39k = 195k. For comparison, Bayonetta for PS3 sold about 212k in Japan (and of that, 139k was in week 1).

So I really don't think 39k is all that bad considering it's a Nintendo console, and considering sales patterns of other comparable titles (I included Wonderful 101 because it's another Platinum title - if Bayonetta 2 follows that pattern, it'll be at about 338k by this time next year). In the end, it comes down to legs, not week 1, on Nintendo systems.

Of course, what gives me much more hope that it will do well in general is looking at pre-order numbers - 46k in the US now, with 6 more weeks to go before launch. For comparison, here are the numbers for pre-orders 6 weeks out, pre-orders right before launch, week 1 sales, and lifetime sales in the US for Bayonetta on each of the systems:

PS3: 16k (6 weeks before) -> 32.5k (final pre-orders) -> 53k (week 1) -> 377.5k (LTD)

360: 14.5k (6 weeks before) -> 35k (final pre-orders) -> 91.5k (week 1) -> 450k (LTD)

If we suppose that growth of pre-orders is only, say, 30% from now (much less than the just-over-100% for PS3 and the 140% for 360) until launch, that would put preorders at 60k. Week 1 sales for PS3 was 63% more than preorders, and for 360 was 160% more than preorders... if we assume Bayonetta 2 week 1 sales are only 40% more than preorders, that puts it at 84k. LTD is about 7.1x week 1 for PS3 and 4.9x week 1 for 360. If we assume only 4x for Wii U, that puts LTD at 336k. Considering that I lowballed on all three calculations, whereas Nintendo system games have a tendency to have longer legs (relative to launch numbers), that's a pretty solid result.

If we were to assume that the boosts follow the weaker of the two consoles at each step, rather than lowballing further than that, with 100% boost in preorders (like PS3), 63% boost for week 1 (like PS3), and 4.9x for LTD (like 360), then we get 735k.

At the very least, there is reason to be hopeful.



Aielyn said:

So I really don't think 39k is all that bad considering it's a Nintendo console, and considering sales patterns of other comparable titles (I included Wonderful 101 because it's another Platinum title - if Bayonetta 2 follows that pattern, it'll be at about 338k by this time next year). In the end, it comes down to legs, not week 1, on Nintendo systems.


But, aside from Wonderful 101, did you actually compare sales patterns of any comparable titles?  The only link seems to be "available on WiiU".  There doesn't seem to be any link between genre; target audience; amount of marketing etc.

Aielyn said:

Dragon Quest X sold 35k in week 1 in Japan (now at 200k).

Aside from this looking like it's another victim of VGC's pretty steady overtracking (I'll get onto that later in the post), check the release schedule of the game:

TitlePublisherRegionDateDistribution
Dragon Quest X: Mezameshi Itsutsu no Shuzoku Online Square Enix Japan 30th March 2013 Retail
Dragon Quest X: Nemureru Yuusha to Michibiki no Meiyuu Online Square Enix Japan 05th December 2013 Retail

Two versions of the game - Original release + expansion - tracked in one SKU.  Sales of DQX individually are probably going to be more like 60% or so of those 200k.  In fact, Japanltdrank have it at 80k (84k including the "all in one" pack).

Aielyn said:

Wii Party U sold 76k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold nearly 800k to date.

Are you expecting Bayonetta 2 to be a mandatory bundle throughout a significant period of the WiiU's life like Wii Party U was?

Aielyn said:

The Wonderful 101 sold a little under 6k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold 52k to date.

This one I'm really struggling with.  Japanltdrank have it at 27k.  It's pretty impressive that VGC have it at almost double that.

On the subject of overtracking - lifetime sales of a game in Japan comes down to how long ioi decides to continue tracking them.  Some games get weeks and weeks and weeks of ~ 500-1k sales charting at 50-75 in VGC's Japan sales, when we haven't seen them in either Media Create or Dengeki's top 50's for months.

Or, they could track the 1st week sales:

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/70525/metal-gear-solid-hd-edition/Japan/

And then just randomly throw in some numbers for the remaining sales without any real semblance of tracking to it (more sales in 2013 for the game - 15k - than the 6 months following release including a holiday period - 9k?)

Point being, legs are all over the place.

And I don't even want to get started on VGChartz pre-orders, in particular with Japanese titles which are horrifically all over the place.