BeElite said: 39k, that cant be good.
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Wii Party U sold 76k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold nearly 800k to date.
Lego City Undercover sold 18k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold just over 100k to date.
The Wonderful 101 sold a little under 6k in week 1 in Japan. It has sold 52k to date.
Dragon Quest X sold 35k in week 1 in Japan (now at 200k).
DKC:TF sold 38k in week 1 in Japan (currently at 112k without a holiday season).
Amongst non-launch titles, it seems like games that do reasonably well typically get multipliers of the order of 5-10x within about a year, with 10x obviously being for the longer-legged titles. 5x39k = 195k. For comparison, Bayonetta for PS3 sold about 212k in Japan (and of that, 139k was in week 1).
So I really don't think 39k is all that bad considering it's a Nintendo console, and considering sales patterns of other comparable titles (I included Wonderful 101 because it's another Platinum title - if Bayonetta 2 follows that pattern, it'll be at about 338k by this time next year). In the end, it comes down to legs, not week 1, on Nintendo systems.
Of course, what gives me much more hope that it will do well in general is looking at pre-order numbers - 46k in the US now, with 6 more weeks to go before launch. For comparison, here are the numbers for pre-orders 6 weeks out, pre-orders right before launch, week 1 sales, and lifetime sales in the US for Bayonetta on each of the systems:
PS3: 16k (6 weeks before) -> 32.5k (final pre-orders) -> 53k (week 1) -> 377.5k (LTD)
360: 14.5k (6 weeks before) -> 35k (final pre-orders) -> 91.5k (week 1) -> 450k (LTD)
If we suppose that growth of pre-orders is only, say, 30% from now (much less than the just-over-100% for PS3 and the 140% for 360) until launch, that would put preorders at 60k. Week 1 sales for PS3 was 63% more than preorders, and for 360 was 160% more than preorders... if we assume Bayonetta 2 week 1 sales are only 40% more than preorders, that puts it at 84k. LTD is about 7.1x week 1 for PS3 and 4.9x week 1 for 360. If we assume only 4x for Wii U, that puts LTD at 336k. Considering that I lowballed on all three calculations, whereas Nintendo system games have a tendency to have longer legs (relative to launch numbers), that's a pretty solid result.
If we were to assume that the boosts follow the weaker of the two consoles at each step, rather than lowballing further than that, with 100% boost in preorders (like PS3), 63% boost for week 1 (like PS3), and 4.9x for LTD (like 360), then we get 735k.
At the very least, there is reason to be hopeful.