Why do you act like the only logical conclusion is that the Xbox One will pull massive numbers this holiday, and that everyone who disagrees with you is definitively wrong? Regardless of overtracking, there still remains a massive gap between the sales figures of the two consoles (which I assume you don't deny). You assert that this gap will not only disappear, but the Xbox One will pull a large lead, all by the end of this year. What evidence do you really have to back up this claim? PS4 has stolen the spotlight for every multiplat released after the launch period  Xbox One's boosts form new releases were negligible compared to what was expected. Even the $100 price cut had little effect. Why do you think that market interest will suddenly rebound dramatically after having been stagnant since Titanfall? Pre-orders for Xbox One exclusives are not that significant and there's still the possibility that many may be coming from current owners. I think it's quite likely that the PS4 will once again take away significant marketshare from the Xbox One, leaving it much closer to the Wii U than you might think. 

Why do you think that? You realize Nintendo does better than both of the other companies during the holidays in terms of %increase typically right? Especially compared to MIcrosoft. Millions of families will be looking for kid friendly experiences which are increasingly only being found on NIntendo devices or Apple/android. Microsoft and Sony are increasingly becoming more saturated with M rated games with boobs everywhere or violence the likes of which haven't ever been seen before in videogames. I still believe that MOST parents, when it really comes down to it deep down, still want their kids to be at least somewhat protected from that stuff and that is why they will turn to Nintendo/Apple specifically over Microsoft and Sony.

didn't people say this about the Xone when Titan Fall came.... and then when the kinectless Xboxe came? Sorry but people are not buying the Xbox for the multiplats, they are going to the PS4 for that so really, any major releases will have little affect on the Xones sales as most people can get the majority of the Xones games on the PS4. Really, people who want an Xbox would primarily want it for Halo and Halo only.

Coupled with third party support and an actual audience to target at. Something XB1 has shown it can do (Launch, Titanfall period) XB1 sells crap when it has nothing going on, but WiiU has sold poorly (consistantly) throughout its whole life no matter what has been put on the table.

Xbox One's audience is being taken away by the PS4. Almost every major third-party game is laos on the PS4, and third-party games have sold more PS4s than Xbox One's (when you compare the boosts. Launch periods definitively prove nothing, as proven by consoles like the DC, the GC , and yes, the Wii U, which experienced huge sales drops after the first few months. There's no way of telling is the strong Xbox One sales are simply a result of Xbox fans and hardcore gamers adopting the console early; meanwhile, the PS4 baseline has been consistently high. It isn't enirely true that the Wii U has been selling consistently poorly. The Wii U did sell well at launch (as previously mentioned) are sales did increase significantly upon the release of major exclusives (so far SM3DW, MK8, nad WWHD gave notable boosts. I don't know why you you think that Smash Bros. (assuming that it doesn't miss this holiday) will do next to nothing and MK8 will cease to make any notable impact despite Mario's long history of performing well during holidays. 

It's funny because I don't anticipate massive numbers for XB1 this holiday. Certainly under Xbox 360's average.

I'm confused, then. For what you anticipated (namely, for the Xbox One to achieve a substantial lead over the Wii U by the end of the the year) to come to pass, either one or a combination of the following two things would have to happen:

(1) The Wii U would have to flop hard.  

(2) The Xbox One would have to pull very large numbers.

I don't deny that, given what has happened so far, it's extremely likely that the Xbox One will outsell the Wii U at some point in the future. However, I don't think it's the necessary conclusion that it will easily pass it in the next four months. I believe I have additional explanation as to my opinion in another post as well.

Who is even debating this? And why is it so black and white for some of you? Third parties will do more for PS4's than they will for XB1's. That does not mean multiplats will not shift XB1's either, they will, they have, and they will continue to do so. It's exactly the reason XB1 is vastly outpacing (alligned launch) WiiU despite being $100/$200 higher.

unless you think MS first party studios push more hardware than Nintendo's? You'll have to make your mind up on that one, can't be both now can it.