PS2 sales were at 15mil then

Better late than never. It's bound to happen. I bet that the Dolphins would win every single week last year, and it eventually happened. For those who don't know, the Dolphins almost went without a win, and won like their 14th game or something out of 16 games. I think they ended with 2 wins.

^lol at dolphins... Da Bears didn't do much better.

You're talking out of your ass my friend. You are guessing, the PS2 was actually less than Wii, at around 16 million. By the time it is released, PS3 should be about 13 million.

If MGS 2 can sell over 6 million on that userbase, the predictions so far haven't been unreleastic at all.

MGS4 will not sell as high as most people are predicting. The lifetime sales of MGS4 will be 4-6 million total. Most of those sales will be in the first month.

only people that are predicting huge #s (5,000,000 and up) are the ones who dont see that you dont need one game to save a system you need many games like MGS4, LBP, KZ2, R2 and all the other titles coming out this year, i think 2- 3 million is reasonable after awhile like 6 months - 1 year

I think it'll sell well because it it bundled with the ps3 and its not coming out with any other big titles (like how msg3 came out around the same time as halo 2 and san andreas).

Fanbase of a franchise is more important than userbase of a console. After all, consoles are bought for the games, so the fanbase is more likely to opt for the console the their preferred games are coming to. That was a bit wordy, but it still makes sense. :P

Let me give you some examples:

GTA: SA sold ~15 million on a userbase of 120+ million. It was the best selling ps2 game of all time, yet it only had a 12.5% attach rate. In comparison Gears of War sold over 5 million on a console with only a 17 million unit install base. Does this make Gears more popular than GTA? Hell no. Would it have outsold GTA if it had been released on a console with a 120+ million userbase? Most likely not.

The MGS series has a large fanbase, many of which either bought a ps3 for MGS4, or are planning to buy a ps3 for MGS4.

Also, the ps2 only had a ~16 million install base when MGS2 was released.

There's this site called VGchartz. Please use it.

http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS2&reg2=All&cons3=PS3&reg3=All&weeks=370

Go look at the database guys. The Ps2 user base was 15mil. The 5 mil prediction isnt that bad either. You have to think about the people that haven't bought a Ps3 yet. This is suppose to entice some of the people who love the series to finally dive in.,