It's not a sudden downfall, didn't everything go down? I mean even 360 is below its average of 3,000 to a whopping 2,000. The went down, too. So isn't it logical that PS3 would go down too. Don't worry, it won't be this low forever.
NPD will show the truth about Sales you SONY boyz!!!
XBOX 360 RULES!!!!!
| eliasg said: NPD will show the truth about Sales you SONY boyz!!! XBOX 360 RULES!!!!! |
Delusional new users coming out of the woodwork.
Stever89 said:
I'm only going to respond to this one and then, because this has been gone over so many times. You need to take a statistics course. 10% of the market can show very reliable sales trends, and ioi has proved it over and over again. It's not simple math either. More of the market doesn't mean you are getting a better sample. And maybe you should start a thread asking which of us should leave. And whoever has more votes, should leave. Or at least not post anymore. Or whatever. |
yes, you could use 10% of the market to represent the whole, but unfortunatelly poorscooper is right. 60% of the market can give better estimates and representation of the whole market with less degree of errors. The smaller your sample, the larger your room for error, the larger your sample, the smaller the room for error.
bigjon said:
I know you are gonna hate to hear this but Vgchartz was about 250k closer for the Wii than NDP was for decembers(nintendo's official numbers confirm this). I happen to know alot about statistics, and I know that they do not have a sample from Walmart(which was known last gen as a bastion of PS2 casuals sales) Things have change since last gen and if NDP has not adjusted their formula for Walmart they ARE off. The Wii has effectly stolen most casuals from sony, and as I stated earlier the others have gone to MS. The PS3 did not sell great over Christmas despite being in ample stock, and now it is selling better than the other 2? This does not add up. If someone was buying a next gen console for GTA4 they would just pick up a 360 Arcade(not hard to find) and it is 120 bucks cheaper(remember GTA is VERY Casual). Basically these good sales make no logical sense, NDP without walmart is no better than VGC IMO. ioi changed his formula based on NDP's ESTIMATION, which explains why VGC has been about 30k higher a week since Jan NDP came out. I believe ioi may have over adjusted because NDP is high. That sums it up. (sorry, for bad grammer- I have to get back to one of my clients) |
Arcade = no Hardrive
Microsoft keep bragging about GTA4 DLC.
How you do DLC with no Hardrive ?
You don't....
That's why the Arcade isn't that great of a choice for GTA4
PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !
PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !
| bigjon said: ok, I'm back. you do realize it is very possible to get within 5% with a 1% sample if you take they sample from unbiased representive sources. I will give you an example- When I was in college for a statistics project I got the data of types of cars people owned on my campus(ford, honda, etc) and my sample was VERY small compared to the total population(like .0000001%). But do you what I found? My sample was with 10% of that of the national statistics based hard retailer sales. 10% is huge is VGC really had that much. And yes NDP is probably perfect for their 60%, but the problem is that Walmart makes up for the rest. And since they are making an estimate to what walmart is selling but have no data they are making and nothing more than an educated guess. They are making this "guess" based on historical data, which I pointed out would be irrelevant in the changing marketplace. I believe walmart Walmart is throwing off their numbers by ALOT. I am not gonna pull numbers out of my rear, but I am gonna guess where you see NDP high and VGC low(and Vice Versa) you can bet that it would be somewhere in the middle. |
lets see...
1. yes, you can get an accurate representation of an accurate market with a sample of 1% and only have a 5% degree of error.
2. historical data is a good place to start when you dont have anything else to base your projections/ estimates or forecasts on. it isnt 100% accurate but as the saying goes "history always repeats itself". companies still look at and use historical data to project sales growth, profit growth, overhead expensses, etc etc.
3. in the end, all these estimates are all guesses but "intelligent guesses". none are 100% accurate thats for sure. and it isnt unheard of for some estimates to be off even with a larger sample size. its all guess work and during december, vgc just made a better estimate. january figures however had vgc adjusting figures to aline with npd data, probably coz vgc saw that the npd numbers were closer.
Ail said:
Arcade = no Hardrive Microsoft keep bragging about GTA4 DLC. How you do DLC with no Hardrive ? You don't.... That's why the Arcade isn't that great of a choice for GTA4 |
spot on my man!
congrats PS3. No matter how it was done, you sold the most this week in NA.
For those who are complaining about supply constraint issues and blah, blam ninty and ms, not fishy. if they are not capable to get products on shelf, they dont sell systems, hence their systems dont sell. thats why ps3 outsold them.
On a related note, the Jaguar would have outsold all three systems last week, were it not so supply constrained!!!!
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Well done to Sony,
Yeah - the Wii would probably be on top if supply issues were not an issue but at the end of the day... Sony got it's supply right and sold the most consoles.
Good business from them - not from Nintendo.
Be interesting to see if we get sustained levels now the format war is over or if they peak in the next few weeks as any fence-sitters decide to buy a HD player...
Wow, this thread certainly got derailed.
Anyway, I'm more interested to see how sales are next week. It's starting to look like more Pro/Elite 360s are coming back in stock (from what some people have said/online stores having "stock", etc.), so it should be interesting.
Wii should own, considering 1 day is ~120K sales (from the deduction that happened), so it should be very strong.
starcraft: "I and every PS3 fanboy alive are waiting for Versus more than FFXIII.
Me since the games were revealed, the fanboys since E3." 
Skeeuk: "playstation 3 is the ultimate in gaming acceleration"
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