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Forums - Sales Discussion - 16th August HW up; + adjustments; PS4 at 9.9M

Baalzamon on 27 August 2014
Clyde32 said:

Let's take a look at Japan's current outlook on gaming systems. They love mobile, they love handhelds, they moderately like home consoles. The Vita has a plethora of Japanese games, yet it struggles to make all that much. 

You may be surprised to find out that since PS4's release in Japan, the PS4 has actually averaged a couple 1000 more units per week than the Vita in Japan.



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Nadwki on 27 August 2014

9.9? Lol Why delay the inevitable?



Ninsect on 27 August 2014
Baalzamon said:
Clyde32 said:

Let's take a look at Japan's current outlook on gaming systems. They love mobile, they love handhelds, they moderately like home consoles. The Vita has a plethora of Japanese games, yet it struggles to make all that much. 

You may be surprised to find out that since PS4's release in Japan, the PS4 has actually averaged a couple 1000 more units per week than the Vita in Japan.

Only due to a big launch being included. It's now selling considerably less weekly.



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FIT_Gamer on 27 August 2014

Next time Sony announces numbers i bet VG Chartz will be even further off than the 10 million announcement.



tbone51 on 27 August 2014
Ninsect said:
Clyde32 said:
Ninsect said:

3DS seems way too overtracked still. 


Not really. It was a holiday in Japan that week. 

I am talking about WW sales and lifetime. I don't want to have to bring out the figures each week so I'll just leave it at that.


Been on track with US numbers recently and we have japan #s, only Europe #s we dont have but Tomodachi is doing extremely well there so it itself could be pushing HW all on its own



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Tachikoma on 27 August 2014

PS4 is basically untouchable at this point, all eyes are on the fight for second place



Ninsect on 27 August 2014
tbone51 said:
Ninsect said:
Clyde32 said:
Ninsect said:

3DS seems way too overtracked still. 


Not really. It was a holiday in Japan that week. 

I am talking about WW sales and lifetime. I don't want to have to bring out the figures each week so I'll just leave it at that.


Been on track with US numbers recently and we have japan #s, only Europe #s we dont have but Tomodachi is doing extremely well there so it itself could be pushing HW all on its own

Does the world only consist of US and Japan? We don't have anything but that. "Only Europe" already sounds bad because Europe is huge, but you're forgetting a lot of important regions still.

I am talking about mostly lifetime sales based on shipped vs. sold being way too close, as often was the case with 3DS' predecessor (which tended to have higher "sales" than "shipments"...)



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Ninsect on 27 August 2014
Ka-pi96 said:

Does this work?

We need to establish a new term for frontloaded sales or high 1st week sales. I suggest "nice boobs".



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Baalzamon on 27 August 2014
FIT_Gamer said:
Next time Sony announces numbers i bet VG Chartz will be even further off than the 10 million announcement.

I highly doubt it. Something people need to keep in mind is with the beginning of a console cycle, it is extremely difficult to have the right numbers to extrapolate data on a region by region basis.

Where sales may have used a factor of 1.6 with the PS3, they may now use a factor of 2.2 with the PS4.

This adjustment alone should be extremely helpful for getting more accurate formulas for calculating the sales.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

kitler53 on 27 August 2014
ICStats said:
kitler53 said:
ICStats said:
...

Huh, PS4 is not likely to sell another 11 Million by the end of the year.  16-17 Million LTD by end of 2014 is reasonable.

go check our database if you don't believe me but year after year,. system after system,.. historical presedence says that:

(sales in jan-aug) x 2 ~= (sales in sept - dec)

run the numbers for all the systems for the last 5 years and you'll see that factor always lands between 1.8 and 2.4.

even with 2 weeks of data missing in august,.. ps4 as sold 5.3M units so far so ~10.6M in sept-dec should be a reasonable expectation.

I ran the numbers for PS3 & X360 (posted a about it a week or two ago) and it's not a solid 2X.  There's a range from around 1X to 2X.  Historically 2X range is in the best case scenarios with price cuts and blockbuster games launching.

PS4 hasn't had a price cut and doesn't have such a big title releasing, so I'm expecting between 1.2X & 1.5X, so 6.5~8 Million.  10+ Million would be outstanding.

hrm,.. i also ran the numbers a while ago and got 2.   ..but today i got the closer to 1 numbers like you said.   i must of fucked up my math last time.  i wonder if i didn't maybe divided yearly sales by pre-holiday sales or something. 

well fuck,.. i hate being wrong.