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Forums - Sales Discussion - 2014 End Sales Estimates, more convincing than ever

DerNebel on 05 August 2014
Landguy said:

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.

That was because the 360 was way more popular than the PS3 in the US, you can't really expect the same kind of holiday increases that we saw for the 360 and PS3 now for the X1 and PS4.



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BeElite on 05 August 2014
Landguy said:
freedquaker said:

 

Note : I have no intention to spam or whatsoever, I am just trying to avoid typing the same thing again on another thread, but here you go, my reply:

---
2014 First half ps4-xb1 & ps4/xb4 market share are as follows:

Cumulative : 63.7% - 36.3%,  PS4 / XB1 = 1.76

Annual : 69.5% - 30.5%, PS4 / XB1 = 2.28

There is nothing that in the statistics that suggests XB1's share will rise further. It has gone down considerably since last year, and the only thing that stops it from going further is the price cut.

Market share of XB1 (between XB1 and PS4 only) in the first half of 2014

Cumulative : Decreased from 41.0% to 36.3%

2014 only : Decreased from 36.6% to 30.5%

Also the current annual 30.5%, which is smaller than the cumulative 36.3% suggests that the market share will keep decreasing below 36.6%, albeit the price decrease may reverse it a bit. So yes, 30-33% range is VERY LIKELY.

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.


Intresting thing about market share.  for 2014

Germany 80% is going to the PS4, NA PS4 is at 63%

What exactly is going to reverse it ? 360 was winning over PS3 in a few holiday happy markets, its sales are eaily explained. Now PS4 is crushing the X1, any reason why it will stop ?  MS had a winning product before, now it clearly does not.  Holiday sales will show that as have this years sales already.  



prinz_valium on 05 August 2014
DerNebel said:
Landguy said:

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.

That was because the 360 was way more popular than the PS3 in the US, you can't really expect the same kind of holiday increases that we saw for the 360 and PS3 now for the X1 and PS4.

do u expect a YOY increase or decrease for november and december xbox 1 sales?

1564k units november

1509,5k units december

 

and what about ps4 sales?

2101k units november

2308,5k units december

 

wich one will have the biggest % yoy increase?

or will we see a decrease? imho november ps4 is a given. ps3 never managed over 2m in november. ps4 got a huge launch

 



freedquaker on 05 August 2014
Anfebious said:
So... about the Wii U... do you think we could we get an estimate for that tiny console too?


There is nothing wrong with the WiiU. It's just not the focus of this thread because of my limited knowledge about it. It's more Japan centric and there seems to be lots of uncertainties in the japanese market, and I will hopefully address it later.

Please don't be defensive assuming wii may be discriminated. It has its very unique appeal, not for the better or worse, just a very different market segment.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

freedquaker on 05 August 2014
DerNebel said:
Landguy said:

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.

That was because the 360 was way more popular than the PS3 in the US, you can't really expect the same kind of holiday increases that we saw for the 360 and PS3 now for the X1 and PS4.


I did study this, although not thoroughly. It's true that the surges of X360 is far higher than PS3 but it is not because of X360 vs PS3, but mostly because of "US vs rest of the world". (Region specific, not console specific). Basically those surges often happen in the English speaking world where X360 dominated. Well, not this generation.... PS4 seems to be leading at least by a 55-45% margin, so most of those surges favoring Xbox are gone.



Playstation 5 vs XBox Series Market Share Estimates

Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

Sales Estimations for 8th Generation Consoles

Next Gen Consoles Impressions and Estimates

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Anfebious on 05 August 2014
freedquaker said:
Anfebious said:
So... about the Wii U... do you think we could we get an estimate for that tiny console too?


There is nothing wrong with the WiiU. It's just not the focus of this thread because of my limited knowledge about it. It's more Japan centric and there seems to be lots of uncertainties in the japanese market, and I will hopefully address it later.

Please don't be defensive assuming wii may be discriminated. It has its very unique appeal, not for the better or worse, just a very different market segment.


I wasn't trying to be defensive, just asking an honest question! I see you can't give an answer though so I won't bother you with the question anymore.



"I've Underestimated the Horse Power from Mario Kart 8, I'll Never Doubt the WiiU's Engine Again"

Xevross on 05 August 2014

Excellent analysis. I estimated 16.4m PS4 and 8.5m XB1 at the end of the year so I couldn't agree more



http://vizioneck.com/

DerNebel on 05 August 2014
freedquaker said:
DerNebel said:
Landguy said:

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.

That was because the 360 was way more popular than the PS3 in the US, you can't really expect the same kind of holiday increases that we saw for the 360 and PS3 now for the X1 and PS4.


I did study this, although not thoroughly. It's true that the surges of X360 is far higher than PS3 but it is not because of X360 vs PS3, but mostly because of "US vs rest of the world". (Region specific, not console specific). Basically those surges often happen in the English speaking world where X360 dominated. Well, not this generation.... PS4 seems to be leading at least by a 55-45% margin, so most of those surges favoring Xbox are gone.

Which is basically what I meant.



DerNebel on 05 August 2014
prinz_valium said:
DerNebel said:

That was because the 360 was way more popular than the PS3 in the US, you can't really expect the same kind of holiday increases that we saw for the 360 and PS3 now for the X1 and PS4.

do u expect a YOY increase or decrease for november and december xbox 1 sales?

1564k units november

1509,5k units december

 

and what about ps4 sales?

2101k units november

2308,5k units december

 

wich one will have the biggest % yoy increase?

or will we see a decrease? imho november ps4 is a given. ps3 never managed over 2m in november. ps4 got a huge launch

 

I guess the X1 should see a decrease. PS4 is more difficult could be flat or slightly up or down.



soulfly666 on 05 August 2014

tagging to add this to vgc buddy.