My bet's still on 15.9 to 16.3.
Which would be really impressive considering how unimpressive I think the library is!

The term "unimpressive" depends on perspective. This year PS4 had lots of third party games with decent first party line up. Plus sales speak of the system's appeal by itself.

Yeah, of course I agree with you.

I would say 17M.

Clearly people think very differently than you.

The sales do speak but their words aren't making sense to me as a customer! :P
As a student developer I love that people are flocking to new hardware and (more importantly) willing to spend money on games, but I couldn't pull the trigger based on this year's lineup.

Good thing there's no such thing as a definitive console for gaming or universal taste!

It's possible. PS4 has exceeded the expectations in a great way.

This is why I mentioned "perspective". Example, for me Wii U library looks pretty much unattractive. Wii U even had a record of not getting a retail game in 4 months. And people are flocking to PS4 because it actually sells games. So in the end it depends on perspective.

Yes, and the perspective of the eager early PS4 adopter is simply by chance not one many people I know at home or university have, so it's exceeding my expectations.

Boy have you got a lot to learn about holiday sales. PS4 should be at 14 Million before December or after the first week of December at worst. For PS4 to sell only 2.6 million from Oct - 1 January would be the worst holiday period ever for a generation leading console. Wii U's first Oct-1 Jan was 1.8 million. PS3's first Oct-1 Jan was 4 million. Wii's was 7 million. 360's was 3.8 million. And you are doubting PS4 can do 2.6 million?

Remember the mantra for PS3 for it's first 3 years was "It has no games". But it managed 4 million during Oct-Dec of 2007. PS4 will do 4 million at minimum and given PS4 sales to date this year that would be somewhat disappointing. So the very least PS4 will have for lifetime sales come 1 january is 15.4 million. There is bascially zero chance of PS4 having a LTD less than that on 1 January 2015. It's more likely to be at around 16.5 million, which would still make it 2 million short of Wii's Oct-Dec in 2007.