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That's just not going to happen. Xbox 360 customers are just too satisfied already.

@OP I disagree, PS4 is tracking well above PS3 and has much less competition.

But the PS4 isnt just barely tracking ahead its about 5 mil ahead with that said to match LTD sales including year 3 of PS2 all it will have to sell in year 3 is 15mil which it seems likly. Thats without considerin the year two gap may continue to increasencome this holiday.

But that's extactly what will happen: the PS4 will sell for more than 9 years and after its successor, like any other PlayStation console did.

However, I do believe it will only take 7 years for it to reach the 100M mark, once the competition is not that strong this time around (which is something you are not taking into account).

Not in its first year on market.

 Its sales would jump from 70k-120k obviously excluding the holiday anf major releases... The PS4 so far has been selling better and more consistently based on hype and cross gen/multiplatform releases (watchdogs, Fifa, COD). I imagine its sales will peak far above the PS3's peak once next gen exclusive games get released on it. Also Microsoft isn't as much competition, so it should steal more of the market if things continue along this trajectory.

Lets not forget that with PS4 sony could actually reach $199 before 2017, its already selling at a profit at $399 according to sony.

Finally, I can' t see the PS4 having a shorter shelf life then 7 years. If anything this is the generation where we may finally see 0.5 type console relaunch, with sony or microsoft releasing souped up version of the ps4 or Xbox One, fully backwars compatible to try and compete with mid-range PC benchmarks in few years from now.

Lets see how satisfied they are when their system can't play Assassins Creed Unity, Batman Arkham Knight and the Witcher 3. 

I don't think they'll be very satisfied. But shhhh don't tell Yusuf Mehdi

That sales hype is really making people crazy! Also no poll?!? So much missed potential >.<

Trending above a console in the 1st couple of months means nothing. 3DS trended above the DS. Doesn't mean 3DS will outsell the DS. PS4 will soon trend below PS2 as the sales gap shrinks. From July to October PS2 sold over 300k a month in U.S. Unless Europe makes up for lack of sales the trending above claim will be null and void. As for PS3 it might stay above for awhile but sales didn't explode until Sept 2009. (I remember because I was there)

Also for it selling over 100 million. No. This generation will end earlier. Nintendo does not really believe in long console cycles since their 1st party titles does not work that way. They usually have a 5 to 6 year life cycle. Next console will release in about 2017 to 2018. Meaning next gen will start at 2019. Unless PS4 explodes to PS2 levels it won't happen. MS might release early to since the Xbone will start trending below 360 and is getting slaughtered

Anyway I like this thread bookmarked (Yes I do this a lot)

Where's that data from? After a google search I found this:

Which is supposedly based on VGChartz numbers. It was done back in 2010 but doesn't match with your numbers.

Edit- Wait a sec, I think I found the data you were referencing (from financial reports) in which case the numbers need to be put into context.

1.41 million Yr 1 PS2 sales accounts for less than 1 month of sales in Japan only; 3.61 million Yr 1 PS3 sales accounts for 5 months in Japan and the US

9.2 million Yr 2 PS2 sales accounts for first full year of sales in Japan, plus 5 and 6 months of sales in the EU and US respectively; 9.24 million Yr 2 PS3 sales accounts for the first full year of sales in all three major regions.

In that context, it doesn't look so good for early PS3 sales. You could apply this regional context for PS4 and in US/EU (and overall) it still looks good for PS4 considering it's at 8.4 million in the space of 8 months. Japan looks to be a bit of a bust by comparison, but overall, it's still on course to beat 100 million lifetime sales.

Well, that and it was cheap and had a shit ton of games for it. It appealed to every audience. Plus it was one of the cheapest DVD players on the market at the time. They kind of hit the bulls eye with everything on that one. 
The whole "casuals" thing is BS. It's just people trying to be "hard core" or whatever. Name one game that isn't casual. It has nothing to do with difficulty or lack there of. Simplicity of play doesn't really tell either. FPS is just point and shoot. Side scroller is just run and jump. Or punch and kick. Sports, same sort of idea. Strategy just requires thinking ahead and a bit of wait for it.... strategy. RPG's are like reading books that are interactive. All casual. They are just games.