metroid prime 3 in the long run will probably get 3 million sales, depending of course, on how good the controls actually are and if there is a good online mode. Bioshock is not selling 3 millions, no fking way, I think that game will be outstanding, but it is just too weird and sick to have mass appeal. It will definitely pass the 1 million barrier, it is getting hyped a lot by the hardcore. And as Legend11 said, Singstar, Too Human and Heav.Sword have no chance to get even to 2 million. Singstar is a mainstream game, in the biggest anti-mainstream console of all time, Too Human, though it looks nice, will get its but kicked by the other big 360 hits, and Heav Sword, will likely appeal to GoW fans, so a million will be probably a good estimate for it. To me the only games on that list with a chance of 3+ million are Madden 2008, GTAIV, Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, and Halo 3. They will definitely break that mark, and probably a lot more. Madden will probably do 4 million, GTAIV 5 (it IS a mainstream game, but $400 is not a mainstream price), Galaxy 4, Brawl 5 and Halo 6

I think you all are giving these new IP's coming out later this year far to much weight. I keep seeing people say games like Wii health Too human or Lair are going to "move consoles" and sell 3 million.

 

I would just say dont count on it. I can see some of these maybe doing Lost Planet numbers. But a new IP isnt exactly a shoe in for 3 million games sold. Thats very VERY rare. The DS software numbers have spoiled people into thinking 3 million is easily reachable by any old good concept + well executed game. That just doesnt happen alot on new IP's. The established IP are the titles that normally hit those type of numbers easily. 

Cipherr said: I think you all are giving these new IP's coming out later this year far to much weight. I keep seeing people say games like Wii health Too human or Lair are going to "move consoles" and sell 3 million.   I would just say dont count on it. I can see some of these maybe doing Lost Planet numbers. But a new IP isnt exactly a shoe in for 3 million games sold. Thats very VERY rare. The DS software numbers have spoiled people into thinking 3 million is easily reachable by any old good concept + well executed game. That just doesnt happen alot on new IP's. The established IP are the titles that normally hit those type of numbers easily.

More like established IP + large userbase will hit big numbers. 

Don't underestimate the Wii games, Wii play is probably around 2 million worldwide, and Wii Sports while only selling seperate in Japan, has already hit 1.5 million there.

if EA get Boogie right then that just might suprise a few people also, this is coming bundled with a microphone and karaoke mode for the Wii.  Could be the new singstar taking the supposedly main stream audience of the Wii.

I mean what better way to spend the holidays with your family than a good old fashioned karaoke on the new wii (think i'll go abroad on my own these holiday!!).

 

 

Personally I think MySims Wii/DS will do much better for EA than Boogey, but that's just a guess. :)

Has everyone forgotten about Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games?  Did you forget about the success of Wii Sports?  It outsold Zelda 3 to 1 in Japan.  As long as they're smart and include a fair number of games with the same or more depth as the Wii Sports games then the sales of this game are going to be HUGE.  The name recognition of Mario and Sonic and the fact that it will have online play(according to IGN) is going to be a huge factor as well.  Miyamoto is involved with this game and odds are that the team behind it is going to include every single game that he tells them too.  Miyamoto is a genius so this will definitely be a good thing.  If this game is good, everyone is going to buy it:  young children, teenagers, adults, elderly, males, females, etc.  I wouldn't be surprised if this sells better than every big game coming out this year.

A few non-related things. 

Heavenly Sword is by the makers of Kung Fu Chaos, wow.  There is no reason to expect that it will be good.

Also, System Shock flopped because of Doom, System Shock 2 flopped because of Half-life, Bioshock will flop on the 360 because of Halo 3.  It may sell better on the PC where there is less competition and a more loyal following, but it won't sell squat on the 360. 

deadhorse said: Heavenly Sword is by the makers of Kung Fu Chaos, wow.  There is no reason to expect that it will be good. Also, System Shock flopped because of Doom, System Shock 2 flopped because of Half-life, Bioshock will flop on the 360 because of Halo 3.  It may sell better on the PC where there is less competition and a more loyal following, but it won't sell squat on the 360.Â

I honestly wonder about Heavenly Sworrd... I played the demo the other day and walked away, saying "Well, there's one more reason I didn't buy a PS3". I was extremely disappointed. The gameplay was bland, the camera angles sucked balls, and overall, I got the feeling that I've played the game already a hundred times over. I just don't see it being a system-seller. I didn't even think it was a very good game and I played the demo for over 15 minutes.

Good points about System Shock and Bioshock. While they're all fabulous games, they won't move many units. But I'm more optimistic than you are about it. I think it will be profitable for the company, maybe moving around 1m copies. I think Irrational needs to put a little more thought into their release schedules. Their games deserve more press than they ever get.

Isn't there a Sony gamers' day next week, I think we'll find out some stuff then, however, Killzone 2 is going to be shown at E3, so I think that we still see many releases being announced then.

Plus I would add Uncharted to that list, all the crash games sold way over 3M, and the first Jak sold over 3M, I would guess that the new IP will provide a great boost to Naughty Dog's sales as introducing new IPs for the previous platforms