smash no, Zelda is a possibility though Iwata will be slapping Aonuma so hard if that happens

Even if the game isn't finised, come october they're gonna wrap up and start debugging... they can't afford for it to miss the holiday IMO.

As for Zelda, I think its been in development for a lengthy amount of time, I think it will make fall 2015.

There is one very obvious reason why Smash will make it out by holiday 2014 and I am surprised that no one has brought it up
Amiibos

There is no way they are hyping the toy line up as much as they are and missing the ship date for the main vehicle of those toys. Thats pretty much a gimmie at this point as a toy line launching after Christmas isn't going to happen.

Nintendo had the Wii before.

Nintendo needs Smash 2014 for the holiday boost and Amiibo. Looking at how far along the game is and the fact that all the characters are already set for 3DS anyway there's no reason at all they can't make a November date.

Nintendo needs Zelda 2015. It's clear they have no other relevant title of scale in development to take its place should it not be there. They can obviously do it, they need to have learned from their HD development mistakes by now. 2016 would mean it launches on a dead console with no momentum and sells accordingly, in my eyes. Hello guaranteed lowest selling console Zelda game in history.

They'd have to have no interest in their own success if they delay. They've already delayed enough and I would be quite spiteful as a fan if they pulled two five year gaps in a row with Zelda, particularly if I felt the wait wasn't worth it.

All that needs to be said.