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Forums - Sales - [Poll] Will the PS4 have 50% market share?

 

?

Yes, and keep it 278 65.41%
 
Yes, and lose it 50 11.76%
 
Nope 85 20.00%
 
After gen is over 12 2.82%
 
Total:425
Troll_Whisperer on 22 June 2014

No doubt, it's almost guaranteed.

The Wii U will end up selling 20m tops. That means that as long as the Xbox One is 20m behind PS4, the latter will have 50% of the marketshare.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

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*Sound Of Rain on 22 June 2014

Last time this question was asked I voted "No".

Now? It it will for sure.



Dark_Lord_2008 on 22 June 2014

PS4 will get and keep 60% market share.
XBox One and Wii U are struggling in sales.
PS4 sales are only limited by supply shortages.



Troll_Whisperer on 22 June 2014
Nintentacle said:

Yes, and it will lose it. Wii U and Xbox One combined will definitely be over half of PS4's sales.

They don't need to be over half of PS4 sales, they need to be over the total amount of PS4 sales.



No troll is too much for me to handle. I rehabilitate trolls, I train people. I am the Troll Whisperer.

Norris2k on 22 June 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:
Norris2k said:
RubberWhistleHistle said:
you can only sell off of hype for so long. sooner or later, the console is actually going to need to get some games.. so,

[x] yes, and will lose it

What make you think that the leading console with 50% shares (your assumption), relatively easy to develop for, supported by 3rd party studios and by a bunch internal studios... will not "get some games" ?


what i mean is enough games to come close to ps1/ps2 levels. those machines had games coming out the ass. cerny and friends wanted us to believe that the same kind of thing was going to be possible with ps4 (due to shorter development cycles) because of the architecture, but we have yet to see it. maybe this will change, but honestly i thought we were going to see it during e3. i dont believe ps4 is going to have enough games coming out of it to push it that far ahead of the other consoles for the long haul.

Then it's quite different from "some games". Certainly it will be absolutely different from the PS1/PS2 in term of total software domination, but we are not talking about selling 150 millions consoles and ending with 75% of the generation sales. And also, having a massive exclusive game advantage was the only way to go. We now have multiplatforms, superior version, Public Relations, indy games, hype, etc. to make a difference. And so far it proves to be enough to get 50% of the market.

My opinion is that the current trend will continue, because the next batch of buyers are followers. They see their friends, watch the news, and based on that buy a console that they think will not fail, not end too soon, is guaranted to be supported by games, and have the best FIFA/COD version.



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RubberWhistleHistle on 22 June 2014
Norris2k said:

Then it's quite different from "some games". Certainly it will be absolutely different from the PS1/PS2 in term of total software domination, but we are not talking about selling 150 millions consoles and ending with 75% of the generation sales. And also, having a massive exclusive game advantage was the only way to go. We now have multiplatforms, superior version, Public Relations, indy games, hype, etc. to make a difference. And so far it proves to be enough to get 50% of the market.

My opinion is that the current trend will continue, because the next batch of buyers are followers. They see their friends, watch the news, and based on that buy a console that they think will not fail, not end too soon, is guaranted to be supported by games, and have the best FIFA/COD version.

50% is still quite a bit.. i am not willing to bet that (marginally) superior multiplats and  hype are going to push it to those levels.



Nintentacle on 22 June 2014
Troll_Whisperer said:
Nintentacle said:

Yes, and it will lose it. Wii U and Xbox One combined will definitely be over half of PS4's sales.

They don't need to be over half of PS4 sales, they need to be over the total amount of PS4 sales.

Brain fart.

It will happen then. It'll stay ahead too.



bubblegamer on 23 June 2014

50% is nothing now, it will reach 60%.



AshKetchum1992 on 23 June 2014

I think it's possible in the future especially if the Wii U gets stuck near 20 million and the One doesn't get near 80 million.



Norris2k on 23 June 2014
RubberWhistleHistle said:
Norris2k said:

Then it's quite different from "some games". Certainly it will be absolutely different from the PS1/PS2 in term of total software domination, but we are not talking about selling 150 millions consoles and ending with 75% of the generation sales. And also, having a massive exclusive game advantage was the only way to go. We now have multiplatforms, superior version, Public Relations, indy games, hype, etc. to make a difference. And so far it proves to be enough to get 50% of the market.

My opinion is that the current trend will continue, because the next batch of buyers are followers. They see their friends, watch the news, and based on that buy a console that they think will not fail, not end too soon, is guaranted to be supported by games, and have the best FIFA/COD version.

50% is still quite a bit.. i am not willing to bet that (marginally) superior multiplats and  hype are going to push it to those levels.

You can disagree on what the market will become, it's not big deal, but it's not about "pushing to those levels". It's about staying at the current level. The PS4 is already getting about 50% of the console sales for a few month, that's not anticipation, that's reality. The hype, marginally superior multi, etc. is already giving it a 50% share of monthly sales. The installed market share is only 42% because the Wii U was 1 year ahead and the xbox one had a great launch, but the current trend is 50%.

So, my point is that it will not change because the later the client buy, the more he has a chance to be a follower, and that will preserve the current trend. The question is : does the guy that bought a PS2 3 years late was crazy about the 1000 exclusive games, or did he buy it because all its friends had it, he could get cheaper games, it was a secure buy and because he could borrow FIFA from a friend for free ?