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Forums - Sales - WiiU and the "under 100k NPD curse"

fleischr on 17 June 2014

June being a 5 week month and assuming VGC tracked the June 7th period reasonably well, the WiiU has 4 weeks to sell 71k for the rest of the month or about 17-18k a week.

Seems possible. No doubt the great e3 Nintendo had has only encouraged potential buyers further.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

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Seece on 17 June 2014

@ Eric - whilst MK is leggy the first 2 days are still highly indicative of demand, you can't write them off and make out the proceeding 35 days are going to be similar. WiiU got a boost (up YOY 100%?) so it DID get a boost.

fleischr, well how do you think that 60k was split throughout May?



 

OfficerRaichu15 on 17 June 2014
Seece said:
@ Eric - whilst MK is leggy the first 2 days are still highly indicative of demand, you can't write them off and make out the proceeding 35 days are going to be similar. WiiU got a boost (up YOY 100%?) so it DID get a boost.

fleischr, well how do you think that 60k was split throughout May?


im more impressed with how its doing against wds ps4 wd ps4 is 2k more than mk8 which surprises me because i was expecting over 200k for watch dogs :P



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

Max King of the Wild on 17 June 2014
WhiteEaglePL said:
I exoected ps4 150+ and wii u 125+

both under performed for me.


Uh... Ps4 did 197k lol. Must have smashed your expectations 



OfficerRaichu15 on 17 June 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
WhiteEaglePL said:
I exoected ps4 150+ and wii u 125+

both under performed for me.


Uh... Ps4 did 197k lol. Must have smashed your expectations 


well thats good but i was actually thinking(not that its bad) it would do over 250k because watch dogs felt like it would be big



Bets:

(Won)Bet with TechoHobbit: He(Techno) says 10 million by January 1,2014 I say 9 million by then. Winner gets 2 weeks of sig control.

(Lost)Bet with kinisking: I say Ps4 will win April NPD while he says Xbox One will win it; winner gets 1 week of avatar control.

Raichu's First Series:

First RPG?

First Fighter?

First Racer?

First Shooter?

First MMO?

First Horror?

Official Ni No Kuni Fanboy:

Familiars Captured:37

Game Beaten: 2 times almost

Times I got teary during some scenes: 3

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fleischr on 17 June 2014
Seece said:
@ Eric - whilst MK is leggy the first 2 days are still highly indicative of demand, you can't write them off and make out the proceeding 35 days are going to be similar. WiiU got a boost (up YOY 100%?) so it DID get a boost.

fleischr, well how do you think that 60k was split throughout May?


What I find curious from the NPD data on our VGC NPD May thread is that it mentions only 6.6% of the MK8 sales came from bundles. Of the 375k sold of MK8, that works to about 24,750 MK8 bundles. But that's only two days of sales. So, the rest of the month only works to be slightly ahead where WiiU was in May 2013. Roughly 8-10k a week. Or here's a better contrast: 36.25k for 29 days of the month vs 24.75k for just two days of the month o.0. (EDIT: This basically assumes only the MK8 bundle was the only onel bought/sold in those two days, in reality a good portion of the remainder of  WiiU units were probably moved in those two days as well).

No doubt the MK8 bundle is the best value for the system and it's clearly what new buyers prefer to other SKUs or we would have seen some bumps to WiiU prior to the launch (and we really didn't). June may have a backfill of buyers who are specifically looking for the MK8 bundle.



I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016

last92 on 17 June 2014

I don't think the WiiU will ever break through the 100k barrier in a non-holiday month. BTW if it ever will, it will happen this month, so we'll know soon enough.



WhiteEaglePL on 17 June 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
WhiteEaglePL said:
I exoected ps4 150+ and wii u 125+

both under performed for me.


Uh... Ps4 did 197k lol. Must have smashed your expectations 


uh...not june 7th sales.



Eddie_Raja on 17 June 2014
Seece said:

Seriously?! I expected 100k+ safely last May NPD with Mario Kart doing so well, somehow it's only the 6th highest non holiday month for WiiU, and yet again hasn't been able to break that 100k barrier (91k in September 2013 with Zelda remake was closest) outside of Nov/Dec holiday season.

When do you think WiiU can achieve a 100k+ selling month in US?

Is June a possibility? I reckon it will do much better than this May but it's not a lock IMO. More weeks and longer MK availabilty goes in its favour.


Isn't it obvious?  The next time a big game launches.



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

Welfare on 17 June 2014

It has only gotten >100k in Nov and Dec. If Wii U doesn't get >100k this month, it will be the curse.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287