The Xbox brand is irrelevant outside of English speaking countries. In Europe, the PS4 will have a large advantage, but I do not see an advantage similar to the PS2, because of high taxes and economic crisis, Furthermore the Xbox brand is very popular in the UK, and this will help balance the sales in Europe.
In the USA I see a hard battle, with perhaps a slight edge to Sony. Japan seems irrelevant, maybe the PS4 sales are the same as the PS3 sales, it can also sell less if Sony leaves the PS4 as main console for less years or if the economic crisis worsens.
I might think than Sony with a lead 25-35 millions, especially because of Europe. But let's see how the market will behave in the economic crisis and, how will be the long-term sales in the United States.