By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

mornelithe on 17 May 2014
Arkaign said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Arkaign said:

Keep it going guys, this thread is the best comedy of 2014 :D

The gap by June will be immense. It's already what, 500k, 600k? ~2.6M vs. ~3.1M US? Wider? At that gap it's something like 20% in favor of PS4 already.

http://venturebeat.com/2014/05/15/april-2014-npd-playstation-4-outsells-xbox-one-again/

http://www.examiner.com/article/xbox-one-april-npd-2014-sales-figures-illustrate-necessity-of-going-kinect-less

Holiday will shrink the gap, but not significantly, probably 250k at most. Thats assuming worst case scenario for PS4.

If that gap persists into next year, XB1 still has a chance but PS4 could pull away.

However, if that gap gets to 750k+ in US, Xb1 is done.

Going with smart estimates, April should be ~85k for XB1, ~250k for PS4. That will put 160k+ towards the PS4 number. Then you have all the multiplats pushing PS4 advantages into fall.

If something big doesn't happen, the gap could widen to 1M by Jan 1st, 2015. (taking into account that ~750k will be nearly there by June 1st).

Think you meant May?



Around the Network
Intrinsic on 17 May 2014
TheDrill said:

I assure you I am very educated, I have a Masters degree in computer science, I am more educated and intelligent than most people on these forums.

NPD just publishes numbers, Microsoft doesn't know how many units they sold, just shipped, so they just took NPD's numbers, and published them on the xbox site, of course NPD numbers are highly inaccurate as VGChartz show.

Thats what makes your posts here much more scary. Honestly betwen you and I, I want to believe that you are just messing around cause I can't bring myself to believe that anyone can be so blindly ignorant and proud of it. 

  • VGC releases numbers (that naturally you believe is right cause they favor your position)
  • NPD is released and VGC goes back and changes their numbers to match the NPDs (but of course you ignore this little detail)
  • Companies (including MS) pays NPD for their numbers which they use for their on analytics, they don't pay VGC. 
  • MS made a PRESS RELEASE not only using NPD hardware numbers but their software numbers, not VGC (which even marked them higher).

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to make sense outta the above information. But even if you want to ignore that information, how about this;

  • In 4 months on the market the pirce of the XB1 unofficially dropped to $450 and still included free game (Titanfall).
  • It was still outsold during that month by over 60K consoles.
  • Less than 3 months later its getting another price drop to $400. The PS4 is still the same price it is today to what it was at launch.
If the X1 is doing so well, do you really think MS will bother dropping the price, here is a quote by MS circa 2006 when asked if they would drop the price of the 360. "We had a price drop when sony announced $599". Thats MS for you, they like money like any other company, they wouldn't be doing all thi if they were doing so well.

DonFerrari on 17 May 2014
Intrinsic said:
TheDrill said:

I assure you I am very educated, I have a Masters degree in computer science, I am more educated and intelligent than most people on these forums.

NPD just publishes numbers, Microsoft doesn't know how many units they sold, just shipped, so they just took NPD's numbers, and published them on the xbox site, of course NPD numbers are highly inaccurate as VGChartz show.

Thats what makes your posts here much more scary. Honestly betwen you and I, I want to believe that you are just messing around cause I can't bring myself to believe that anyone can be so blindly ignorant and proud of it. 

 

  • VGC releases numbers (that naturally you believe is right cause they favor your position)
  • NPD is released and VGC goes back and changes their numbers to match the NPDs (but of course you ignore this little detail)
  • Companies (including MS) pays NPD for their numbers which they use for their on analytics, they don't pay VGC. 
  • MS made a PRESS RELEASE not only using NPD hardware numbers but their software numbers, not VGC (which even marked them higher).

 

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to make sense outta the above information. But even if you want to ignore that information, how about this;

 

  • In 4 months on the market the pirce of the XB1 unofficially dropped to $450 and still included free game (Titanfall).
  • It was still outsold during that month by over 60K consoles.
  • Less than 3 months later its getting another price drop to $400. The PS4 is still the same price it is today to what it was at launch.
If the X1 is doing so well, do you really think MS will bother dropping the price, here is a quote by MS circa 2006 when asked if they would drop the price of the 360. "We had a price drop when sony announced $599". Thats MS for you, they like money like any other company, they wouldn't be doing all thi if they were doing so well.

 


The reason for that is that MS believe NPD is right, but they don't know that VGChartz is more accurate than them... at least for our guy that can see the future.

Not even ioi would publicaly say that he is more accurate than NPD. But maybe this guy is a ioi alt account that is trolling us while drunk, it have happened before for different reasons.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari on 17 May 2014

The best part of this is a guy that have enrolled in the site for 4 days is sure it's more accurate than NPD and everybody is giving ears to him.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Arkaign on 17 May 2014
mornelithe said:
Arkaign said:
Dr.Henry_Killinger said:
Arkaign said:

Keep it going guys, this thread is the best comedy of 2014 :D

The gap by June will be immense. It's already what, 500k, 600k? ~2.6M vs. ~3.1M US? Wider? At that gap it's something like 20% in favor of PS4 already.

http://venturebeat.com/2014/05/15/april-2014-npd-playstation-4-outsells-xbox-one-again/

http://www.examiner.com/article/xbox-one-april-npd-2014-sales-figures-illustrate-necessity-of-going-kinect-less

Holiday will shrink the gap, but not significantly, probably 250k at most. Thats assuming worst case scenario for PS4.

If that gap persists into next year, XB1 still has a chance but PS4 could pull away.

However, if that gap gets to 750k+ in US, Xb1 is done.

Going with smart estimates, April should be ~85k for XB1, ~250k for PS4. That will put 160k+ towards the PS4 number. Then you have all the multiplats pushing PS4 advantages into fall.

If something big doesn't happen, the gap could widen to 1M by Jan 1st, 2015. (taking into account that ~750k will be nearly there by June 1st).

Think you meant May?

 

Yes, you're exactly right. I did mean May lol :)

The more interesting question : when will the 1M gap be hit in the US? I'm thinking that with no exclusives coming soon, and with a bunch of multiplats that will look/play better on PS4 leading us to the end of the year, that the PS4 will easily maintain sales lead. Kinectless XB1 may sell well for 1-2 weeks, then slide back down to baseline numbers. So months like 150k to 290k, 175k to 340k, etc.

August I guess. So during September NPD release we might be able to confirm that the gap is 7 digits at that point.

Honestly the ONLY thing that might give Sony any trouble at all is production limitation for the holiday season. They need to build up inventory so that they can keep stock flowing, otherwise you get the stupid crap like December, Black Friday, etc. Yes, they were technically outsold, but only because they had already sold out by and large.

This is also why April NPD being 'only' 199k is actually good news in a way, gives them a little breather to build up a bit of inventory in the warehouse. They should really pre-charge for the holidays as best they can. After all, with enough product, 500k/mo+ is easily possible later in the year for US NPD.



Around the Network
Nicklesbe on 17 May 2014
DonFerrari said:
The best part of this is a guy that have enrolled in the site for 4 days is sure it's more accurate than NPD and everybody is giving ears to him.


In order to give him ears one must first take him seriously. It's been established from post one that he is obviously a troll. No harm in getting amusment while practicing debate skills. Unless you think there is?



http://www.youtube.com/v/AoOOpLpcF28 http://www.youtube.com/v/CphFZGH5030

All Hail the Jester King. The King is back, and I am still a dirty girl prof ;)

DonFerrari on 17 May 2014
Nicklesbe said:
DonFerrari said:
The best part of this is a guy that have enrolled in the site for 4 days is sure it's more accurate than NPD and everybody is giving ears to him.


In order to give him ears one must first take him seriously. It's been established from post one that he is obviously a troll. No harm in getting amusment while practicing debate skills. Unless you think there is?


Well if we are only talking about laughing about someone so dedicated on being ignorant about facts them there is no problem. But I bet he is an alt account.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic on 17 May 2014

Arkaign said:

Honestly the ONLY thing that might give Sony any trouble at all is production limitation for the holiday season. They need to build up inventory so that they can keep stock flowing, otherwise you get the stupid crap like December, Black Friday, etc. Yes, they were technically outsold, but only because they had already sold out by and large.

This is also why April NPD being 'only' 199k is actually good news in a way, gives them a little breather to build up a bit of inventory in the warehouse. They should really pre-charge for the holidays as best they can. After all, with enough product, 500k/mo+ is easily possible later in the year for US NPD.

The real problme sony has is actually that they aren't just selling well in NA, they are selling very well in europe too. In the months of november and december, you can typically expect sales of 800k to 1000k from either the PS4/XB1 in NA alone per month. MS can afford to shift more stock to NA and send less to europe wheer they know they won't do that well but sony has to send an equal amunt of stock to both territories. What this means is that for the months of Nov and Dec. Sony needs to have around 4-5Ml consoles available. 

I don't see how they will be able to pull that off. 



mornelithe on 17 May 2014
Intrinsic said:

Arkaign said:

Honestly the ONLY thing that might give Sony any trouble at all is production limitation for the holiday season. They need to build up inventory so that they can keep stock flowing, otherwise you get the stupid crap like December, Black Friday, etc. Yes, they were technically outsold, but only because they had already sold out by and large.

This is also why April NPD being 'only' 199k is actually good news in a way, gives them a little breather to build up a bit of inventory in the warehouse. They should really pre-charge for the holidays as best they can. After all, with enough product, 500k/mo+ is easily possible later in the year for US NPD.

The real problme sony has is actually that they aren't just selling well in NA, they are selling very well in europe too. In the months of november and december, you can typically expect sales of 800k to 1000k from either the PS4/XB1 in NA alone per month. MS can afford to shift more stock to NA and send less to europe wheer they know they won't do that well but sony has to send an equal amunt of stock to both territories. What this means is that for the months of Nov and Dec. Sony needs to have around 4-5Ml consoles available. 

I don't see how they will be able to pull that off. 

You're assuming they're selling everything they stock still, which is untrue in America.  It's still selling well, sure, but it's not sold out worldwide the millisecond stock replenishes.  By Nov/Dec, there should be enough stock WW for Sony to keep up with any holiday demand.  At least, that's my thinking anyway :)



Damagon on 17 May 2014
TheDrill said:
 


You fail to understand that I did the math.

I understand perfectly well that both the ps4 and x1 are selling units, but for the last 4 weeks X1 either outself bu ~ 2-5k , per week or had the same sales as a PS4. furthermore before that the PS4 only outself X1 by ~3-5 k, if even that.

What that means is that for PS4 to gain 1 % edge on X1 it needs to sell approximatively 60k units, at the current pace it will take months to gain just 1 % over X1.

OK I shall bite. 

If NPD  is innacurate, and VGChartz is innacurate, then where exactly are YOU getting your numbers from? How can you make a prediciton/a deduction/math when you have already admitted not even Microsoft themselves know have many units they have sold? How do you know Sony's number too?  

You cannot reject the veracity of the numbers given just to later use those same numbers in an argument for your own agenda.