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Forums - Website Topics - Feb 9th American Predicition League - Time to pay the Butcher!!

I wanna check me out now :P

Turok 360 - 58k- 82K -71%

Turok Ps3 -30k - 44K - 68%

DMC 4 ps3 -10K WTF? - 195K - 5%
DMC 4 360 - 13K WTF? - 337K - 4%
AC:AC - 47k- 23K - 0%
Culdcept saga -27 -20K - 66%
SMG -77 - 72K - 92%
GHIII Ps2 -61 - 64k - 95%
BP 360 -32 - 50K - 64%
BP ps3 -23 - 28K - 82%
DS - 151- 153k - 99%
Wii - 138- 216K - 63%
X360 - 80- 86K - 93%
Ps3- 50- 74K - 68%
PSP-63 59K - 92%

VERY vague total, I did this one in 2 minutes, so probably wrong: 64.13%. Darn! I lose money again!


For Stof, your average is 79%, that's insane! A shame you only bet 210. :P



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

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Hey, 210 is a lot more than most people bet. I'm quite surprised since I only got 58% on the Jaunuary 2nd Japan round.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

@Oyvoyvoyv: That's not how you count average accuracy. You counted accuracy of "average prediction". I guess you don't think that average accuracy for Culdcept saga was 99% and you have to get 99% or more accuracy to win on this bet, do you? Also there are no situation when average accuracy is 0 (unless every one person will get 0% accuracy).

To count average accuracy you have to count accuracy for every 140 users, add them up and divide by 140. Saying that what you counted still may be useful to predict results but it's not accurate way to do so.



@Kamil

I welcome you to do that. Prove that it has a big difference, I won't bother. I believe gives close to the same result, and it takes a hear piece only im time time. If you want to do 100 % accurate, sure do it. But untill then, I don't believe I'm a lot wrong.

Now I started repeating myself... Bad sign...



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

Game | my bet | actual | %-ish 

Turok (X360) 55,000 82,000 67%
Turok (PS3) 50,000 44,000 88%
Devil May Cry 4 (PS3) 70,000 195,000 36%
Devil May Cry 4 (X360) 120,000 337,000 35%
AA CC(DS) 55,000 23,000 42%
Culdcept Saga (X360) 60,000 20,000 33%
Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) 76,000 72,000 94%
GH: III (PS2) 68,000 64,000 94%
Burnout Paradise (X360) 50,000 50,000 100%
Burnout Paradise (PS3) 45,000 28,000 62%
DS 155,000 153,000 99%
Wii 143,000 216,000 66%
X360 78,000 86,000 91%
PS3 47,000 74,000 63%
PSP 70,000 59,000 84%

Total average: 70%

Summery: Much better then I usually do. My record was 62% before and if I've counted correctly I've a new record :) yay for me 



Predictions for December 31st 2008:
Wii 38,000,000
DS 84,500,000
PS3 17,000,000
PSP 41,000,000
X360 23,000,000

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@Oyvoyvoyv: I'm not sure if you read my post carefully. But if you did you would know that counting average accuracy requires counting accuracy for every 140 user (x15 inputs), so of course I won't do it.

I'm not sure if you understood what I have said (I actually had problem with understanding you also). You simply calculated a paramter that is not taken into account when calculating winnings from bets.
There is some relation between average accuracy in ioi' formula and what you counted but it may be far away.
I counted average accuracy it for 2 games but basing only on top 10 users (with the biggest bets). Results:
Assassins Creed: Altairs Chronicles: 10.6% (your number: 0%)
Culdcept Saga (X360): 32.2% (your number: 99%)
I think it would be similar if I counted all 140 users (I didn't chose those 10 users on purpose I just took 10 first on the list).
However I chose those games on purpose to show you have wrong you can be with your calcuations (it apperently didn't work with CS but worked perfectly with AC for which true accuracy is disastrus 33% contrary to your perfect 99%).



Any chance we could get an update on the prediction league situation? Just looking for an ETA...I'm assuming this delay is due to debugging issues with the code and that once the system is good to go there will be a set automated schedule.



To Each Man, Responsibility

@ Kamil I'm not sure you read my posts carefully. I said it would take too long time, so if you wanted to, you could spend that time.

I said specifically that this was uncertain, several times, and estimated at the end.

The numbers are CLOSE to the real numbers. I don't want to spend a lot of time doing that, is that so hard to understand?



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

kamil said:
@Oyvoyvoyv: That's not how you count average accuracy. You counted accuracy of "average prediction". I guess you don't think that average accuracy for Culdcept saga was 99% and you have to get 99% or more accuracy to win on this bet, do you? Also there are no situation when average accuracy is 0 (unless every one person will get 0% accuracy).

To count average accuracy you have to count accuracy for every 140 users, add them up and divide by 140. Saying that what you counted still may be useful to predict results but it's not accurate way to do so.

Are you really sure that's the way it's calculated? Because then, it's really ok, half of the gamers will be below the average, the second half above...

I thought the number used for our winnings was the accuracy of the average prediction, which is WAY different, and which is the number we find on the League page when the game is closed and finished...

And as you may remember, i've had quite a discussion with ioi about that unfamous 96% accuracy for PS3 in the first japanase prediction... with such a number, it's nearly impossible to win, of course, so that was the source of my confusion and my worries... maybe i've worried a little bit too much then... but there's no clear FAQ yet, so...



 

"A beautiful drawing in 480i will stay beautiful forever...

and an ugly drawing in 1080p will stay ugly forever..."

@ Kamil.

AC:AC - 56K - 23K I said 0%, if that is wrong look at this.

From1st league:

Wii Play -23,976 - 11,670 - 0%

The way I calculated was by this:

When bet
When bet > actual, I check about how much actual has to be multiplied with to get bet.

I have to correct myself though, I mistaked that on AC:AC on myself, it is supposed to be 0 % sorry.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS