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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which Gamer Will Sell More in Japan- SSBB or FFXIII

The Fury on 21 February 2008

I believe there are still hoards of PS2 owners, not having bought a console from this gen yet, waiting for the right game to come along before they buy their next console. That being the next Final Fantasy.

Weeks prior to the release the PS3 might have a huge spike in sales. 22 million PS2s sold and only just under 8 million already bought a new console. There are alot of PS2 users still to take the step. FFXIII could be it.



Hmm, pie.

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Joeron on 21 February 2008

I believe in Smashburu X! Games with the letter X sell more (I just made that up)

FF XIII (dang it has an X too)

Japan prediction:

SSBB: 2.4 by the end of the year, lifetime 3 million
FFXIII: 2 million before the end of the year if ever. 2.6 lifetime



tokilamockingbrd on 21 February 2008
The Fury said:
I believe there are still hoards of PS2 owners, not having bought a console from this gen yet, waiting for the right game to come along before they buy their next console. That being the next Final Fantasy.

Weeks prior to the release the PS3 might have a huge spike in sales. 22 million PS2s sold and only just under 8 million already bought a new console. There are alot of PS2 users still to take the step. FFXIII could be it.

there will not be a console to reach 22 million this gen. The PS2 had a high failure rate compared to Wii and PS3, and most people who bought the original PS2 upgrade to the slim. Not saying PS3 won't get a slim, but I think the amount of people with the PS3 needing to upgrade will be smaller. It would not suprise me if the PS2's actual userbase was closer to 14-16 million. Most of the PS2 selling now are people replacing older systems.



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routsounmanman on 21 February 2008
bigjon said:

Which do you think will sell the most?

After looking at past data it would be easy to say that FF will sell 2.5 million no problem right?

I decided to look into some past Data for this. This how much each sony console FF has sold(In Japan).

FF7- 3.93 FF8- 3.64 FF9- 2.8 FF10 3.02 FF12 2.42

An analysis in that data would assume a general decline with FFX breaking the mold of the decline. Based on the Console base these games were released the game would sell 2-2.3 million or so. Which would be really great sales except it is Final Fantasy. But, the PS3 WILL not have even close to the userbase any of these Final Fantasy's had. Right now the PS3 is just below 2 million and it appears to be stalling there. I do not know how soon that FFXIII is going to be release in Japan so I am going to error on the side of the PS3. So lets say that there is a Console base of 3 million by that point. The PS2 had around a 5 million user base when FFX was released. So userbase alone will stall its sales. Also FFX came out before Nintendo turned Japan casual with the DS, so who really knows what will happen. Right now I am predicting 2 million lifetime sales, but would not be shocked if it failed to reach 2 million.

Now SSBB is much easier to call because it is already out and is selling like gangbusters. After these weeks sales are add SSBB will already be at 1.3 million +, and it legs are just starting to kick in. It will reach 1.6 million before golden week and then slow and chug its way to 2 million towards the end of the summer, after holidays 08 it will be sitting at 2.2-2.5(ltd should be 2.4-2.7mil) million far above what I believe FFXIII will sell. Could all the Smashboys buy it and then it stop at 1.6 million? =))) We'll see.

Basically I decided to do this when I saw many Sony Fans putting their hopes and dreams on the back of FFXIII. FF has be around over 20 years, eventually, even the best things pass by the wayside to be replaced by something new. The 3.9 million people who bought FFVII have families now, and unless they are playing it with their children are not going to have time to put 80 hours into a FF game... Smash can be enjoyed in smaller increments and this phenom will not affect it to the same extent.

All this to say DQIX could become the best selling RPG in Japanese history(besides pokemon of course)


It's not Nintendo's fault Japan has turned casual nor it was Nintendo who did it. They merely were the first to grasp the opportunity to make tons of money off the casuals.



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macross on 21 February 2008

will see 2010



Poor PS3 Sales Means Smaller Losses

"Actually, because the number of units sold was not as high as we hoped, the loss was better than our original expectation," Quotes from Sony’s CFO Nobuyuki Oneda.

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Mummelmann on 21 February 2008

I think FFXIII in the long run seeing as its first week sales might nearly catch up to whichever number SSBB is at when it launches.
We'll see how it fares, like some said; a lot has changed in Japan, and this change may very well also affect FF sales.
I firmly believe, however, that FFXIII will push past 3 million lt sales in Japan.



kirby007 on 21 February 2008
CrazzyMan said:
FFXIII.

SSBB - is NOTHING new? Or it`s a REVOLIUTION since SBM?
FFXIII - is GRAPHICAL REVOLIUTION.

I expect over 3 mln. LTD for FFXIII in Japan.

you probably don't even know what SSBB is =))))



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Christopher_G2 on 21 February 2008

I would say Final Fantasy XIII wins, marginally. First of all don't be mislead by the so called trend of Final Fantasy game declining in sales. Final Fantasy XII really diverged from the Final Fantasy formula, and that probably hurt it in sales a bit. On the other hand you have to wondar what the PS3's install base will grow to. Final Fantasy XIII will be a huge system seller. I could see Final Fantasy XIII ending with 2.8 million in sales, and Smash Bro's Brawl ending somewhere around 2.5-2.7.



Dark_Lord_2008 on 21 February 2008

SSBB will smash FFXIII in sales. Who really cares about another RPG sequel with fairies? FFXIII will be so meh, all FF games are rubbish.



cdemakis23 on 21 February 2008

Definitely SSBB, out of the question