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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which Gamer Will Sell More in Japan- SSBB or FFXIII

Which do you think will sell the most?

After looking at past data it would be easy to say that FF will sell 2.5 million no problem right?

I decided to look into some past Data for this. This how much each sony console FF has sold(In Japan).

FF7- 3.93  FF8- 3.64  FF9- 2.8   FF10 3.02    FF12 2.42

An analysis in that data would assume a general decline with FFX breaking the mold of the decline. Based on the Console base these games were released the game would sell 2-2.3 million or so. Which would be really great sales except it is Final Fantasy. But, the PS3 WILL not have even close to the userbase any of these Final Fantasy's had. Right now the PS3 is just below 2 million and it appears to be stalling there. I do not know how soon that FFXIII is going to be release in Japan so I am going to error on the side of the PS3. So lets say that there is a Console base of 3 million by that point. The PS2 had around a 5 million user base when FFX was released. So userbase alone will stall its sales. Also FFX came out before Nintendo turned Japan casual with the DS, so who really knows what will happen. Right now I am predicting 2 million lifetime sales, but would not be shocked if it failed to reach 2 million.

 Now SSBB is much easier to call because it is already out and is selling like gangbusters. After these weeks sales are add SSBB will already be at 1.3 million +, and it legs are just starting to kick in. It will reach 1.6 million before golden week and then slow and chug its way to 2 million towards the end of the summer, after holidays 08 it will be sitting at 2.2-2.5(ltd should be 2.4-2.7mil) million far above what I believe FFXIII will sell. Could all the Smashboys buy it and then it stop at 1.6 million? =))) We'll see.

 Basically I decided to do this when I saw many Sony Fans putting their hopes and dreams on the back of FFXIII. FF has be around over 20 years, eventually, even the best things pass by the wayside to be replaced by something new. The 3.9 million people who bought FFVII have families now, and unless they are playing it with their children are not going to have time to put 80 hours into a FF game... Smash can be enjoyed in smaller increments and this phenom will not affect it to the same extent.

All this to say DQIX could become the best selling RPG in Japanese history(besides pokemon of course)



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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Super Smash Bros. Brawl. It is the most hyped game of this year and w. the release dates pushed more and more back SSBB is wanted even more.

There are so many FInal Fantasys so i think SSBB
btw; im still trying to get my hands on final fantasy



Depends on how much Brawl will sell, cause FF will sell *only* 2.5 million copies of the game. And 1.5-2 million of them will be in week one.



Probably FF13 but its goign to depend on PS3 userbase by itse release. But its more than likely going to be FF13.



I predict FF13 by a long shot.



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I predict Smash Bros. Brawl.



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Smash Bros.

PS3 install base is way too low.



Brawl will kick it´s as bigtime



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It's going to be close, but without an install base large enough to even do 2 million first week (since there's NO WAY it'll do 100% attach rate), and since Smash Bros has 50% sales compared to the PS3 install base, and I don't think FF13 will do 50%, I thinking it'll be Smash Bros. But it could go either way.

Also, without knowing how the Smash Bros series could do on a console that sells more than 5 million, one can't simply say "oh well FF's always outsell the Smash games." That statement is true, but since the FF games (on the PS2 at least) had an install base close to 20 million, while the best install base the Smash Bros had was 5 million on the N64. So this will be a very interesting comparison.



I think it's a coin toss really. Just depends on Smashes legs and the userbase of the PS3 by the end of the year (assuming XIII makes it out by then).

 

Let's consult this cat.

 



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