I think you linked to the wrong thread.

That Nintendo was saving units for christmas is definitely no "myth". The increase in sales was just too high. So its not a myth. (and I don't have any problems with it anyway). If they do it now I have no idea. But they did it for christmas. And again I do not see the problem.

Just _Ben wasn't arguing that there has been no stockpiling, he was saying it has had a lesser part to play than we (many of us) think.

There is a lot of evidence to show they did stockpile some for Christmas, and I am pretty sure they did, but taking away 3X1.8million from what was shipped in Q3 is not what was stockpiled.

As for the recent weeks, it is pretty difficult to tell if any stockpiling is happening, and if it is it will be miniscule.... what we are seeing currently will just be Nintndo not having settled into regular weekly shipments properly.

Ok I thought this had been put to rest. Everyone seems to be agreeing but comign away with different opinions. What seems relevent is the OP opinion on recent sales.

While I do believe they will stockpile for Christmas, I don't think they will do anything until they can get staightened out from the holiday which doesn't appear to be happened yet.

The main thing people never seem to take into account with these major fluxuations is that these are retail sales not Nintendo shipments. Where I live stores will often combine Wii shipments or hold onto them un til they have enough for all stores in the chain or hold them for a special sale. Sometimes it is for a big game like Brawl and sometimes it is just the last Sunday of the month. Personally I thnk Nintendo shipped a huge pile to the US end of January, many got sold last week, some trickled through this week and reatailers may be holding a few for Smash.

What I don't expect is for US numbers of Wii to go over 250,000 for smash week. There just is not enough units in the channel yet.

So yes I agrees that Smash stckpiling is a myth, but the OP is over simplifing the process.

I understand that Just_Ben was not saying there's no stockpiling at all (although his thread title made me think so at first). But besides that, I still think he's underestimating the stockpiling which took place for Christmas.

It's not a very important or fundamental disagreement though. Beyond any petty numerical disagreement, I think the important thing to know is that stockpiling is in Nintendo's dictionary. Last year, many people doubted it, now, we know for a fact that it's true.

 Quite true, quite true.

It's pretty ignorant and foolish to argue a point that you can't prove, especially when reality just might turn around and prove you entirely wrong in a couple weeks.

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 24th Feb 2007 to 31st Mar 2007:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 07th Apr 2007 to 12th May 2007:

As you can see, last year the 6 weeks leading up to their fiscal year end had a noticeable smaller shipment than the 6 weeks after their fiscal year end; with how close Nintendo got to their projected shipments many people suggested that Nintendo held back hardware to be released in their next fiscal year.

This year Nintendo forecast 14 Million Wii systems from March 31st 2007 to March 31st 2008, currently they have sold 15.8 Million and will likely pass 17 Million by March 31st. It is possible that Nintendo is limiting the ammount of hardware shipped out in order to stay close to their projection.

Note: You want to stay close to your projection at the end of the year, or to adjust your projection through out the year (so that it will match at the end of the year), otherwise people will distrust your future projections.

stockpile or short shipment, Nintendo STILL needs to get its act together and produce ENOUGH console for people who want it.

It is seriously killing them, if Microsoft drops the price at this point, I'm sure some customer who couldn't find a Wii, will buy an Arcade version instead if it's cheaper.

Some? Probably ...
Many? Not likely ...

From January through November there is little need to make substitutions and most people who are buying a console are not in that much of a rush; on top of that the Wii shortage is not bad enough to prevent motivated purchases (most people can pick one up in a weekend or two), but is enough to prevent impusle purchases.

 I don't know... considering the arcades are supposedly in good supply and people are looking for pro versions, it seems not many people will even choose the arcade instead of searching for a pro. (This is assuming there is actually poor supply of pros)

Still, you are correct, they need to get supply sorted.