I tend to agree. I don't see an excessive number of sales on the cards for anyone really, but effectively what we have is a repeat of the 6th generation of consoles. PS4 will screech ahead much like PS2 did, and the Xbone/Wii U will wind up with similar numbers, much like the Xbox/GameCube did. Again Microsoft will rely largely on one or two ungodly popular games like they did with the first Xbox and the release of Halo, while Nintendo will fall back on it's 1st party titles.
The question is, where will the sales figures land lifetime wise. That depends, if world economy improves, they could all see reasonable sales, with PS4 possibly topping 150 million worldwide, with the other two hitting between 30-40 million (which is not too shabby), if the economy doesn't improve however the PS4 will struggle to top 80 million, and the other two will struggle to top 20 million.
I see this being quite an obvious spread it'll be as follows
PS4>3DS>Vita>WiiU>XBO
The media will naturally present the XBO as far more successful than the Wii U, but that's because USA struggles to see past it's own borders and hasn't realised that outside of USA there are maybe three blokes who gave a shit long enough to buy an XBO and one of them was pissed out of his skull when he did it. As such, the Wii U simply has a larger audience to appeal to. It won't be a massive lead, but when it comes down to it, when everyone already has a PS4, it'll be Nintendo that gets picked for obligatory second console because "Well, I never did play that new 3D Mario game or that Donkey Kong game that came out two years ago, and people have been talking about that new Zelda game. May as well, it's pretty cheap now".
The Vita will become more and more desirable as the PS4 does better, plus people underestimate the appeal of handhelds in Japan. They sell REALLY well over there. Vita just needs one "sensation" game, anything that can become a fad, and it'll sell an additional 10 million practically overnight. It's happened for PSP, GBA, DS, and 3DS, I see no reason it won't happen again for Vita.
My predictions for lifetime sales; optimistic estimates.
PS4 - 165 million
3DS - 120 million
Vita - 60 million
Wii U - 40 million
XBO - 32 million
If the banks shit themselves again though (or simply fail to wipe their arse after the banging shit they started having 5 fucking years ago), or if the industry crash keeps going and takes more than just THQ for a merry trip to dev-heaven, Well in that case it'll likely go more like this.
PS4 - 80 million
3DS - 50 million
Vita - 25 million
Wii U - 18 million
XBO - 15 million
I'd like to be an optimist and claim the above is going to happen, but a part of me is cautious of such a prediction. The latter spread would certainly be a bad thing for gaming though and that's no good thing. All in all the order and ratio changes very little I think.
This seems like the most likely spread... though who knows for sure. The PS3 looked dead in the water in it's second year, and it's not only overtaken the Xbox 360 but it's even been outselling the Xbox One in recent weeks... so who's to say what can change. I'll bet no-one would have considered the PS3 the strongest 7th gen console in 2007.