osed125 said:
A couple of days ago I made this post as to why I think this could potentially be the last console generation; and, as the tittle says, it has nothing to do with the Wii U, X1 or PS4 sales, this is all based on the future generations and what they are currently playing, which is something I honestly have never seen anyone mentioned. I'm just gonna copy paste the post I made:
I personally believe that mobile and facebook games have indeed been hurting both handhelds and consoles a lot. Before the mass popularity of these games, when people talk about playing video games they used to mention PS2, GC, Xbox, Wii, 360, PS3, etc..now they mention Candy Crush, Angry Birds, Clash of Clans, etc. People are starting to see that you don't need to pay $300 + a game to enjoy video games, or if you pay, is only max of $15. Now whether you consider games like Candy Crush or Angry Birds video games doesn't matter, that's the perception people have. I sometimes see the argument that "you also have to pay for the phone which is more expensive than the console" the problem is that phone gives the consumer much more value, you can make phone calls, take pictures, check your e-mail, and up top of all this, you can play video games. Marketing plays a huge role in this.
Yet just now 400 console set all time records while a 500 set all time Xbox brand records. There goes that pay 300 point you had. Seems there is greater value in consoles then ever before.
What Mario Bros. was for the kids 80s, it is now Angry Birds. You bet that the first game many kids that were born 2008 onward played was Angry Birds. I sometimes imagine how the forums will look like in 10 years and see threads asking "what was the first game you ever played?" and Angry Birds will be many people's answer. Those kids will then play other facebook and mobile games until the point where they won't need anything else, and most important, they won't have to pay for them, they will grow up with this mentality. Mobile and Facebook games are also getting bigger and "deeper", they of course don't match (and probably never will) the size of AAA games, but we will slowly start to see (as internet speeds get better) bigger games that you will only have to use a keyboard and have an internet connection.
Same way those kids moved from mario to Halo COD GTA whatever, the current ones will move on.
Now here is another thing to consider, will kids and teenagers that played mobile games will later move on to consoles as they become adults? hard to say, but I personally don't think so because even teenagers and people in the 20s are already playing these games, so why kids, that grew up playing this on top of all things, follow a different path?
Reality proves you wrong, my brothers 8 years old balled his eyes out when he didnt find a PS4 under the tree for Xmas. In my closest family there are 3 under ten and all already console game. They play all games, but even they see that tablet phone games suck and want the real deal.
You are going with the unrealistic expectation that people will not want better, if you are a gamer you will want better games console games. So it comes down to are they a casuals wiling to get by on phone showelware just killing time or are they a gamers.
The people's gaming needs will be satisfied with the likes of Angry Birds and Candy Crush, this will be the consequence of what I mentioned in the previous paragraph. A new generation that will grow up playing these games, and just as we saw Mario getting bigger moving from 2D to 3D, kids today will see mobile and Facebook game getting bigger and better.
No, im seeing with my own eyes a gen grow up on that crap yet they still want the CODs GT Halo. Causals are satisfied by it.
To add a little bit more, the fact that you don't have to pay for these games is a huge incentive to both parents and the kids and teenagers themselves. I mean parents will be happy to not waste any money in the kids gaming needs (well they have to pay for the phones, but like I already mentioned, the phone gives A LOT more value than a gaming console or handheld), and the kids themselves will be happier, why? remember when you were a kid and you spent months saving money to buy a single game? kids today won't have that problem, they will just go to the app store and download any game they find interest in, or at max, they will pay $15 or something like that.
You do get the difference of playing phone crap and a AAA console game. Based on your mentality I might as well not buy runners cause i already have flip flops which are far cheeper.
Let's also take into consideration that in a somewhat distant future, when the internet speeds are somewhat balance across the board, developers will stop making games for console. It will be cheaper for them to make the game with single specifications and just let people stream it. Although I don't see this as a viable option for at least even a decade when the people that have a good internet speed will overshadow the ones who don't, making it the best option for developers. And this is why I personally believe Sony and MS will do, who knows maybe there won't ever be a PS5 or Xbox Two (?) and all their games will be played by streaming; Nintendo is a weird case because they live in their own little world, so who knows what they will come up with. Imagine if at some point EA decides to make a full FIFA game that can be played on a web browser? If that day ever comes, it will be the nail in the coffin for consoles in Europe and Latin America. It benefits EA as well because they won't have to pay for console royalties nor the retailers, meaning they will get every single penny the game costs (well EA is trying to do that with Origin right now, but we all know it sucks really hard).
We are decades from that, in case you havent noticed internet and cable providers dont adopt new tech overnight. We got 4k tvs already yet most my programs are barely 1080i and manya re still sd. I wonder how many decades it be before you can stream a 1080p 60fps game anywhere in the world no problem.
To be clear, I don't expect the things I mentioned above to take full effect until a decade at the earliest, especially the streaming part since that requires a huge percentage of people to have good internet speeds. Or maybe, console gaming will become a niche market, the problem with this however is that big publishers will have to re-think their business strategy; if games are having a hard time making profits selling 2 million copies, in niche environment, this has to drastically change.
TL;DR version: kids are stupid and they won't buy consoles because they can play Angry Birds, they will grow up with this mentality and will play more stupid games. If consoles don't die, they will become a niche market. THE POWER of streaming video games....all this coming in the next decade.
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