The fact is that there are a lot of people who won't notice the difference between a BD and a DVD.  They won't care, they won't want to pay more.  Even given consumers with a BD player and an HDTV, you'd still find that DVD sales would likely continue to dominate.

The rise of IPTV type downloading is inevitable.  I'm not talking about completely supplanting disc formats, but competing with and even possibly surpassing them within a decade.  The question isn't if, it's when -- when will the technology get there.

We have plenty of examples of it getting there -- 10mbit cable is fast enough for well compressed HD content.  Verizon FiOS is 100mbit or faster.  There are a lot of developed and developing technologies becoming available to more people that will provide download speeds faster than BD streaming to the home.  As infrastructure upgrades, companies will rush to monetize this opportunity.  And the biggest facet of that will be IPTV / HD movies on demand.

People will think of movie consumption in a different way.  They won't think "I need to go to the store and buy a movie," but rather they'll think, "when I get home, I will push a button on my TV/set top box and watch a movie."  It's quicker, it's easier, and it's the same movie.  That's how it will get adopted. 

I don't see d/l taking over for a long time.

But I don't see blu-ray overtaking DVD for a long time either.

Personally, digital downloads has killed my purchasing DVDs. I know a couple people shot down PPV, but I just got cable last week. The PPV will contribute to my not having to buy DVDs anymore. And the other contributor, is the instant viewing of movies from Netflix online. I have my 52" Sony Bravia connected to my PC, and the instant download movies from Netflix are of DVD quality. That's also contributed to my feeling that I don't have to buy the physical media anymore.

I actually believe that this is the big chance for digital downloads to take over. People keep saying things like "oh I rather have the physical movie or game" but people used to say the same thing about CDs. Look what happened, the IPod came and its taking over the music industry slowly making CDs obsolete.

All movies and videogames need to finally become a digital distribution is a new type of device that will be just as hip and cool as the IPod is for music. I think with videogames it'll be a tad harder because this generation is primarily in their teens to middle age people but once the new generation of videogame players come about they probably will probably just want to download everything since we're basically becoming acostumed to do so in our everyday life.

I have a 12mb download speed, but streaming and getting content from the web is still slow as shit! DSL lines have horrid upspeed and it hinders packet shipping both ways and inevitably slows down my line...

 Because it is a comparable system people are familiar with. If you sell digital downloads as a form of pay-per view the adoption rate will sky rocket. It won't ever be what I would call very high, and certainly won't kill DVD or even Blu-Ray mind you. Still, I think you can carve out a nice market amongst the technophiles and wanna-be technophiles.

Where in t he world do you live? I live in a small town in Texas and I watch all my TV shows online thru the big network websites and I never have a problem with streaming anything. Even Netflix works amazing for me streaming.

 Same goes for me as well.  I have 6MB/sec and my streaming and Netflix work beautifully.

^Here in the Scandinavia ADSL has terrible upspeed to crack down on filesharing. My up speed is less than 0.3 Mbit... A network or onlint connection with the same speed both ways works a helluva lot better, but here I'll have to go for fiber to get that, and it'll cost me over 1000$ just to hook it up followed by a monthly minimum of 90$. Yes, broadband is expensive in Scandinavia, especially outside of the city...