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Forums - Sales - There's No Way This Generation Will Sell Better than Last Gen.

NintendoPie said:
Leadified said:
Well even if the PS4 pops 150 million the Xbox One does 80 million and the Wii U does 30 million (really optimistic predictions) that's still only a total of 260 million units, which is still less than what we currently have.

The problem too is I can't really see the Wii U managing 30 (more around 20 millionish) and the Xbox One 80, I have no way of knowing but I can't see it happening. So for now realistically speaking it's safe to assume there will be a decline.

Thank you. Thank you, thank you, thank you. People are missing the point of this thread, recently. It's not about one specific console (PS4.), it's about the generation as a whole. In my OP I post my highest predictions for each just to prove how an increase isn't plausible.

Again, thank you.

What if PS4 surpasses even the PS2

What if it does 200m becoming the first console to do so just as PS broke 100m and PS2 broke 150m, PS2 was never expected to sale what it did but it did sale that much.  Theres no telling how high PS4 can sale, it has all the advantages this gen.

We could see PS4 near 180/200, xbox do 50/70 and wiiu 15/20  Looks like this gens sales moslty rest on PS4 shoulders.



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BeElite said:
archbrix said:

I disagree.  The market in Japan has changed, even just since the era of Wii/PS3.  Whether or not the PS4 gets the "lion's share" of console sales in Japan is irrelevant when the console market is the way it is today.

Oh, and FYI, the WiiU won't be as easy a pushover in Japan as it is in the West.

Has it or is that just what some people on a certain side of the fence think.

Whats gonna be the excuss about Japan when PS4 does awesome numbers and maintains them ?

Yahh it will, wiiu has nothing to stop PS4 from owning Japan. 

IF the PS4 can maintain them in Japan.  That's the question.  



I agree with this 100%. It would take absolutely massive sales from the PS4 AND the Xone just to make up for the WiiU's dismal performance; both would have to sell over 100 million a piece.

It's not happening. In fact, I don't expect to see total generation sales like that ever again.



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FarleyMcFirefly said:
DialgaMarine said:
Why do you say the PS4 at most to sell as well as PS2? The PS4 has shattered every single PS2 record so far. Why is it somehow impossible for PS4 to surpass it? Sony is doing everything they did right with the PS2 this time around and then some. With strong continued (which every PS console has had) support and a good amount of time, the PS4 will go far.


Wii broke records too, it lost momentum fast.
PS4 is doing great, but it is far too early to say, but I doubt there will be another home console like the PS2

i agree the ps2 got lucky when Sega decided to end the in my opinion superior dreamcast, they had no real competition there for a little while the N64 was fun but was last gen and the gamecube/xbox didnt come out yet. so they had the gaming arena to themselves there for a little while.



I wonder just by how much... A lot of the sales from ps3 and 360 came from re-purchases of those consoles due to the consoles failing after the warranty expired and etc but the 8th gen seems to have more reliable hardware but again, we will see... It will be interesting for sure...



                  

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Funny even after the Vita, people are still overestimating how many hardcore gamers are out there.



What are you, some sorta sorcerer? Some kinda wizard? Whadaya think you are, some sorta fortune teller?

No but seriously. You don't know what's going to happen. Your prediction of 255 million is just that - a prediction. It's based on various assumptions which will no doubt be challenged and several of them overthrown - because that's the nature of assumptions. They don't last. They are before the fact. Professionals in the video game industry get paid to make predictions like these and they're nearly always wrong.



BeElite said:
archbrix said:
I don't think anyone would argue regarding handhelds, so, moving on...

Neither Nintendo nor Microsoft will sell as many console units as they did during the 7th gen. WiiU will be lucky to sell a quarter of the Wii's total at this point. XB1... maybe about half of the 360's total but not much more.

Sony is the only company who's console will see growth over last gen, and those thinking the PS4 can make up the difference all by themselves are kidding themselves. PS4 ain't selling PS2 numbers, people. Japan is a very different market today than it was in the early 2000s; PS4 won't manage 21m+ there.

The only thing that could possibly change things is if this gen went on for a very long time, and personally I think it will be shorter than last gen.

Wii/PS3 are nearling 23 million in Japan, PS4 will get the lions share of Japans sales.
Wiius failure points to a clear possibility of PS4 selling around 20m in Japan.

This gen will not be so short.


PS4's not even gonna outsell the damn ps3 lmao



DialgaMarine said:

freebs2 said:
Diadoesn'tne said:
NintendoPie said:
DialgaMarine said:

 I mainly skipped over the 3DS example because 1) it's a portable, and 2) it's actually doing pretty damn good. It did have a strong launch, but then it steadily started to die down, before starting to do amazing again, and continues to do so to this day. It's actually comparing well with DS numbers. The reason for it's original downfall were two obvious reasons: Lack of games and overpriced. Once Nintendo fixed both of those, it went up. The difference between the PS4 and the 3DS is that it has neither of those problems right out of the gate (yes the PS4 has plenty of games, and many more coming; don't BS me). 

Overall, you have a point that cummalitively, this gen won't do anywhere near as good, but that's if you include portables and factor in the clearly weak numbers of Vita and Wii-U. PS4, however, will do great.



Of course you would factor in the Wii U numbers. It is a home console. No?

I'm not saying the PS4 won't do great. Predicting that it'll do 153+ Million is absolutely mad, though.

 Once again, I ask, how is 153M + for PS4 LT so naive? Do you have any actually reasoning behind this?



Ok, I think we could both agree there are people not interested in video games and people who are just barely interested and not willing to buy consoles anyway, right? So the question is: What does the ps4 offer to these people that ps3 or 360 weren't offering already? If you could awnser to this question you may explain how the Ps4 is supposed to sell 153M units.

Right now Ps3 has sold 80m in 7 years and X360 80m in 8 years (let's leave Nintendo out of the equation), this means the whole console gaming population is 160m by now, actually it's less beacuse you know some people bought both Ps3 and 360 and those people are counted 2 times. So by saying the Ps4 will sell 153m you could imply 2 different things: or the Xbox One will sell abysmally (like the WiiU or worse), or the market as a whole, so the gaming population, will grow by a good margin. How is that supposed to happen? If Ps4 can't offer something very appealing to people who haven't bought Ps3 or 360 before it simply can't happen.

 You might as well ask what any new gen console offers over the previous gen? Why do people buy new consoles, period? Easy. More powerful hardware, more new games on said hardware, more new features, and so on. If people didn't see the potential of the PS4 over the previous gen, it wouldn't be continually flying off shelves like it has been.



I can't tell if you genuinely didn't get what I was saying or you just don't want to understand.

This is not about what a new gen offers over the previous to people who play games, it's abou what new gen offers to people who haven't bought consoles in the previous gen.

A person that hasn't played games in the previous gen doesn't care if the hardware is new.

To get "new" players jump in you need something easy to understand and possibly innovative (like Crasg Bandicoot or Gran Turismo were at the time), a bunch of sequels and a couple of new hardcore IPs are not enough.

Ps4 dosen't offer new features compared to the ps3, on the contrary it has less features (no DLNA, no CD).

The fact that Ps4 Is selling at a good rate right now doesn't mean the market is growing. People who are buying Ps4s right now are former ps3 or 360 owners, they aren't new gamers.

As I've explained you before the market of former Ps3 and 360 owners is not big enough for ps4 to reach 153m. To reach that goal the ps4 must draw people from outside that market and atm no one is doing anything substantial for it to happen.



archbrix said:
BeElite said:
archbrix said:

I disagree.  The market in Japan has changed, even just since the era of Wii/PS3.  Whether or not the PS4 gets the "lion's share" of console sales in Japan is irrelevant when the console market is the way it is today.

Oh, and FYI, the WiiU won't be as easy a pushover in Japan as it is in the West.

Has it or is that just what some people on a certain side of the fence think.

Whats gonna be the excuss about Japan when PS4 does awesome numbers and maintains them ?

Yahh it will, wiiu has nothing to stop PS4 from owning Japan. 

IF the PS4 can maintain them in Japan.  That's the question.  

Given developer support i can easily say yes it will.