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Forums - Nintendo - Iwata: "never thought about resigning"

Soundwave on 12 February 2014
Mr Khan said:
Soundwave said:
 


Things wouldn't be as bad if the 3DS isn't looking like it's going to suffer a decline. Honestly the Wii U is maybe the lesser of their two problems here ... because they have shown they can tread water with a low selling console as long as they have a handheld that's moving 15-18 million units a year like the GBA was from 2001-2004 ... the problem is the 3DS looks like it peaked at 13 million and is declining from that. 

I also think smartphones and tablets being such a magnet for young kids is frustrating Nintendo to no end. At least in that market (the battle for young kids) Nintendo I think has finally met its equal/superior. Every time I go to a Best Buy, there's always like 3-5 kids swarming around the iPad section. 

That's kinda where I see parralels ... Blackberry's always had a nice nest egg of cash too, the problem is a cash nest egg doesn't do much when your product lines are all declining in market appeal. 

Profitability in decline means you live to fight another day, though. Nintendo games are generally lightweight enough that they don't demand an 8-digit sellthrough for titles like many top-tier third party games, and if you're not employing a loss-leading model, then just selling the devices is more or less okay.

Declinism is bad for stocks and investor confidence and needs to be addressed, to be sure, but Nintendo's not in the position where they're forced to lose money, unless they feel they do need the Wii U to sell more at the definite cost of getting it profitable per-unit, and that is certainly attainable. It wasn't about the volume of GBA sales, but the fact that GBA and GameCube were both turning a per-unit profit, so everything sold was money in the bank even if it was inconsequential compared to the business Sony was doing at the time.

(the real disaster of that generation, that nobody ever mentions, is the Xbox, where Microsoft's per-unit losses got *worse* as the generation proceeded, not better. Microsoft really shat out a lot of money basically just to build a bridge for the 360)


One other thing I think that gets lost in all this is the 3DS actually is NOT selling as quickly as the GBA (on top of losing Nintendo a ton of money its first year, whereas the GBA was a profit machine from day 1). The GBA was able to comfortably sell 15-18 million a year, 3DS even with Pokemon X/Y last year is about 13 million ... that's a fairly large gap. 

On top of that the Wii U is selling less than the GameCube at equivalent points in their life cycle by a substantial margin. 

So when people just casually throw out that "well GBA/GCN were profitable so Wii U/3DS surely will be" .... no it's no where near that simple. 



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dsp333 on 12 February 2014

Of course he wouldn't, self serving sack of shit.

Still, it truthfully wouldn't have done any good to kick him out right now. Any new energy and blood would be wasted on the Wii U, as would public perceptions with it on that new CEO.

They're going to be kicking Iwata out around the time of the next console release. Possibly around the time of the next handheld release, even. He's got until the end of 2016 at a bare minimum, 2017 or 2018 more likely .



Soundwave on 12 February 2014
dsp333 said:
Of course he wouldn't, self serving sack of shit.

Still, it truthfully wouldn't have done any good to kick him out right now. Any new energy and blood would be wasted on the Wii U, as would public perceptions with it on that new CEO.

They're going to be kicking Iwata out around the time of the next console release. Possibly around the time around the time of the next handheld release, even. He's got until the end of 2016 at a bare minimum, 2017 or 2018 more likely .


I think Nintendo internally is pretty much resigned to the Wii U being another GameCube type dissapointment (at best). 

If that "Quality of Life" thing turns out to be a dud, then I think the heat will form on Iwata considerably though. 



dsp333 on 12 February 2014
Soundwave said:

One other thing I think that gets lost in all this is the 3DS actually is NOT selling as quickly as the GBA (on top of losing Nintendo a ton of money its first year, whereas the GBA was a profit machine from day 1). The GBA was able to comfortably sell 15-18 million a year, 3DS even with Pokemon X/Y last year is about 13 million ... that's a fairly large gap. 

On top of that the Wii U is selling less than the GameCube at equivalent points in their life cycle by a substantial margin. 

So when people just casually throw out that "well GBA/GCN were profitable so Wii U/3DS surely will be" .... no it's no where near that simple. 

Hell, it wasn't just Pokemon last year either. It was Pokemon, Monster Hunter 4, Zelda, a new dirt cheap model that went for $99 even on black friday,  Puzzle and Dragons, and Animal Crossing in the west. And it's still set for an almost certain decline year over year.

Seriously, how much worse would it have been without Pokemon? Without MH4? Without AC? Without 2DS? 

They've already blown all their big guns with the 3DS, all they can do now is drop the price as sales continue to drop. Nintendo could give less of a shit about the Wii U's performance, but I guarantee you they're (rightfully) shitting themselves in fear over this.



Dr.EisDrachenJaeger on 12 February 2014
Soundwave said:
Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:
Soundwave said:
I don't see them making a profit this fiscal year either.

Last year they had Pokemon X/Y (which is far bigger than what Mario Kart 8 will be especially on that small Wii U userbase), Animal Crossing for the West, Luigi's Mansion 2, Fire Emblem, Super Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, Wii Party U, 2DS release + a favorable yen.

If they couldn't even come close to posting a profit with all that, they ain't sniffing one this fiscal year. 3DS sales will likely decline YoY and Wii U is going to need another price cut to $250 at least.


They did post a profit. An Operating loss is an operating loss, but NIntendo makes net profits. Get it straight people.

No they are not going to post a net profit this year. You are thinking of last year where they did post an operating loss, but ended up with a tiny net profit because a favorable yen/dollar turn for them. 

But its been 3 years of operating losses for them, and I don't see much changing for this coming year. It very likely will be 4 straight years of losses. 

They're buying back Yamauchi's shares So yeah posting a loss



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Soundwave on 12 February 2014
Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:
Soundwave said:
Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:
Soundwave said:
I don't see them making a profit this fiscal year either.

Last year they had Pokemon X/Y (which is far bigger than what Mario Kart 8 will be especially on that small Wii U userbase), Animal Crossing for the West, Luigi's Mansion 2, Fire Emblem, Super Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, Wii Party U, 2DS release + a favorable yen.

If they couldn't even come close to posting a profit with all that, they ain't sniffing one this fiscal year. 3DS sales will likely decline YoY and Wii U is going to need another price cut to $250 at least.


They did post a profit. An Operating loss is an operating loss, but NIntendo makes net profits. Get it straight people.

No they are not going to post a net profit this year. You are thinking of last year where they did post an operating loss, but ended up with a tiny net profit because a favorable yen/dollar turn for them. 

But its been 3 years of operating losses for them, and I don't see much changing for this coming year. It very likely will be 4 straight years of losses. 

They're buying back Yamauchi's shares So yeah posting a loss


Their game business posted a loss too.

The share buy back actually shouldn't have any impact on their 2013 fiscal year business, companies don't just leave their cash reserves sitting in a giant pile like Scrooge McDuck (there's a reason that's a cartoon), they are generally invested in securities and bonds, all they're doing is shifting their securities/bond/cash asset mix to having a larger share of Nintendo stock versus say ... any other type of security. 



Dr.EisDrachenJaeger on 12 February 2014

Did you read their forecasts good and proper? It seems like you didnt



Nem on 12 February 2014
Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:
Soundwave said:
I don't see them making a profit this fiscal year either.

Last year they had Pokemon X/Y (which is far bigger than what Mario Kart 8 will be especially on that small Wii U userbase), Animal Crossing for the West, Luigi's Mansion 2, Fire Emblem, Super Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, Wii Party U, 2DS release + a favorable yen.

If they couldn't even come close to posting a profit with all that, they ain't sniffing one this fiscal year. 3DS sales will likely decline YoY and Wii U is going to need another price cut to $250 at least.


They did post a profit. An Operating loss is an operating loss, but NIntendo makes net profits. Get it straight people.


That is not convenient for doomsayers and haters, so they choose to ignore it. Nintendo is on the doorstep of Oblivion and thats that. xD



NintendoPie on 12 February 2014
Soundwave said:

There are definitely parallels. Blackberry had a monster cash reserve just a few years ago too. 

Which they have religiously dried up. Nintendo's hasn't (to my knowledge), Nintendo also wasn't on top of the world just once. They did good with NES/SNES and have always done good with Handhelds. There's a difference.



Dr.EisDrachenJaeger on 12 February 2014
Nem said:
Dr.EisDrachenJaeger said:
Soundwave said:
I don't see them making a profit this fiscal year either.

Last year they had Pokemon X/Y (which is far bigger than what Mario Kart 8 will be especially on that small Wii U userbase), Animal Crossing for the West, Luigi's Mansion 2, Fire Emblem, Super Mario 3D World, Pikmin 3, Wii Party U, 2DS release + a favorable yen.

If they couldn't even come close to posting a profit with all that, they ain't sniffing one this fiscal year. 3DS sales will likely decline YoY and Wii U is going to need another price cut to $250 at least.


They did post a profit. An Operating loss is an operating loss, but NIntendo makes net profits. Get it straight people.


That is not convenient for doomsayers and haters, so they choose to ignore it. Nintendo is on the doorstep of Oblivion and thats that. xD

Meanwhile people ignore Sony's serious issues