The only real way to win big is to hope that everyone else is wrong, basically? So there are weeks that you will actually lose, even if you're close to being right if everyone is closer? At least try a different percentage like seventy five or eighty, rather than us betting against the numbers and the users in order to win big.

@ ioi

Well, it's just weird that the faq page doesn't mention this whole thing at all. I mean, I'm fine. I barely made some money this league, but by changing the rule, and the faq page still staying the same, it makes this "sudden change" really hard to swallow. Not that I don't believe you, can you link to that thread, cause I sure as hell missed it.

I should clarify. The fifty percent rule being changed, and it still saying that in the faq section. What I suggested was that you keep that rule for the current and archived sections, and from then going on do this new rule.

The issue is you changed the system last minute when everyone had made their bets BASED on that system. Yes, it's not fair because they copped out on "easy bets", but it's also not fair that you changed it with no warning, or without waiting for say the 2nd prediction league to notify all the predictors how the system would change.

What I don't understand is why you don't take the difference in prediction accuracy to average accuracy of all the users to calculate loss or gain.  This would prevent the lucky person who manages to land say an 80% accuracy against the whole average of like 30%.  Sure, people won't loss as much money and they won't win as much money, but it all meshes with how it's all calculated.

Why winnings formula can't be like this?:

You have problem with that 50% accuracy is too low to be rewarded?
Imho, it's fair enough and 50% makes you a moderatly good predictor and you're worth to get your money back. I don't see a problem if everyone with 50%+ will gain money......
I think this formula should be implemented, because it doesn't makes ANY SENSE AT ALL when (almost) EVERYONE LOST THEIR MONEY. It's not fun at all and soon, nobody will play this because nobody will bet only to LOSE.

I don't see a problem (though I agree with the 1.2 multiiplier so payouts are positive overall)

I think people are complaining because they see they got 90% accuracy but they lost money... but when the majority of people were 95% or more accurate it means you did crap in comparison to everyone else... like me with the PS3, I only got 86% because I was obviously useless at predicting it (I thought it would rise more for DMC)
However I redeemed myself by being better than the majority for the PSP and 360, which I was above 90% for both compared to the 75% averages.

Well yes there is the argument that you could just not put in the easy ones... but then hardware can be easy (like Wii and PS3 were) and there are not always enough new games to add each week, and no-one wants to be predicting titles that are destined to be in 130th place or something just because they might be difficult to predict.

The only problem I had with it originally was being forced to bet on each game, (has that been added to the rules yet btw?) but it isn't that much of a problem when VG$ are only spent on this one thing, so losing $5 for a few games means nothing if you bet high and well on the titles you know about.... and you can just go with the flow for the games you are unsure of and copy what the site average is. 

As an example with that 96% PS3 AVERAGE accuracy, here are the results of the best 50 players in the League that week for the PS3 prediction:


73.98 / 48.78 / 84.06 / 86.58 / 93.26 / 93.26 / 86.58 / 48.78 / 86.58 / 61.38

73.09 / 98.62 / 95.78 / 99.18 / 86.58 / 75.61 / 99.18 / 85.51 / 70.55 / 99.18

75.61 / 93.26 / 93.26 / 99.18 / 61.38 / 84.06 / 90.73 / 86.58 / 95.78 / 87.84

99.18 / 75.61 / 86.58 / 99.18 / 75.61 / 61.38 / 95.78 / 99.88 / 61.38 / 65.53

99.18 / 10.96 / 73.09 / 83.17 / 46.25 / 86.58 / 99.18 / 99.18 / 88.21 / 89.1


As you may see, yes, 18 of these are in the 90%, and 10 in the 80%... so half of the players were close... but does it mean everybody was very close? Not at all...

I don't have the time to write all the 170+ results, but i'm sure you'll find the same tendency: the AVERAGE prediction doesn't mean most people were right, and that it's a really TOO EASY prediction... it just means most people were in the same kind of numbers...

In that case, from 20.000 to 60.000... and it's normal, we all know it will not be bellow, or it will not be higher... so hardware predictions will never be rewarding then...

Anyway, on these 50 people, only 10 have more than 96%, and win... nearly nothing... so that system drains money out of the game...

Now, i understand your point, ioi: you don't want the people to easily cash in on the easiest predictions... but i think that system should be more balanced... a 90% prediction should give people some good earnings anyway... and a 30% prediction should not give people a lot of earnings, just because most of the others were even more wrong... but once again, it's only my opinion, and i'll have fun doin' my predictions, no matter what the system finally is...

( ( (100 + (Accuracy-Average Accuracy) ) / 100) * original bet) That's how the payout should work compared to the comparison of accuracies. This way it's capped in that you can't make mega bucks if everyone screws up the average accuracy on something by underpredicting.

85.67%/40.45% = 2.118 X bet = double your money? Flawedz.