to PlagueOfLocust -

"You seem to be clinging to the idea that the future is not guaranteed yet. While this is true, it does not give you any ground to stand on to say that the predictions and opinions of everyone or anyone are "false."

==> I never stated this
Are you referring to one of my first post ? I used "WRONG" to show that I was thinking the opposite (typically when someone was summarizing the situation claiming 90% PS2 owners are buying Wii ...)
I never saied that people were wrong or not in their prediction
I just say that their predictions were NOT garanted
THIS is what i m trying to say since the beginning : allow everybody to expres and defend his opinion !

" "False" is not even an issue; we're not trying to argue "false" around here. It would require seeing the future through some crystal ball to accomplish what is going to be true or false."

==> right
Even if my point is not to demonstrate what is false or true, I aggry with you.

" We're arguing "likely" and "unlikely." Yes, technically Sony isn't dead yet,"

==> aggry

and technically they might never be,

==> who knows ...

" but based off of the facts we do have (knowledge of how markets/economics work, and the current successes/failures of the current generation of consoles) we can make safe or unsafe predictions and form good or bad opinions.

==> hum... yes again

" I'll just put it like this: your predictions are unsafe at this point if you put your money on the PS3."

==> lol, wrong, bip bip bip lol
the correct sentence should have been :
"(!!!!!) I THINK (!!!!) your predictions are unsafe at this point if you put your money on the PS3."

To claim something is safe or unsafe is, for me, highl subjective ...

To answer you, I have ALREADY say that, even for me, considering the current sales and the price, the probability that the PS3 will sell better than Wii in the future was very low.
But a probability high or low is, before all, a probability that will or not reallize ...

You know Sony/Microsoft still possess a lot of weapon in their pocket AND the Wii is so different in term of game (type and technology), that I think Wii and Xbox360/PS3 will co-exist in the market ... they don't compette for the same nich.

Wait&See

libellule said: to PlagueOfLocust - "You seem to be clinging to the idea that the future is not guaranteed yet. While this is true, it does not give you any ground to stand on to say that the predictions and opinions of everyone or anyone are "false." ==> I never stated this Are you referring to one of my first post ? I used "WRONG" to show that I was thinking the opposite (typically when someone was summarizing the situation claiming 90% PS2 owners are buying Wii ...) I never saied that people were wrong or not in their prediction I just say that their predictions were NOT garanted THIS is what i m trying to say since the beginning : allow everybody to expres and defend his opinion ! " "False" is not even an issue; we're not trying to argue "false" around here. It would require seeing the future through some crystal ball to accomplish what is going to be true or false." ==> right Even if my point is not to demonstrate what is false or true, I aggry with you. " We're arguing "likely" and "unlikely." Yes, technically Sony isn't dead yet," ==> aggry and technically they might never be, ==> who knows ... " but based off of the facts we do have (knowledge of how markets/economics work, and the current successes/failures of the current generation of consoles) we can make safe or unsafe predictions and form good or bad opinions. ==> hum... yes again " I'll just put it like this: your predictions are unsafe at this point if you put your money on the PS3." ==> lol, wrong, bip bip bip lol the correct sentence should have been : "(!!!!!) I THINK (!!!!) your predictions are unsafe at this point if you put your money on the PS3." To claim something is safe or unsafe is, for me, highl subjective ... To answer you, I have ALREADY say that, even for me, considering the current sales and the price, the probability that the PS3 will sell better than Wii in the future was very low. But a probability high or low is, before all, a probability that will or not reallize ... You know Sony/Microsoft still possess a lot of weapon in their pocket AND the Wii is so different in term of game (type and technology), that I think Wii and Xbox360/PS3 will co-exist in the market ... they don't compette for the same nich. Wait&See

Never stated that? "since this thread is suppose to be about FUTURE we are both wrong in a way." There ya go.

How can you both be wrong in a way, if you don't yet know what's right about the future? Rest assured, one of you will be right and one of you will be wrong. That is why I said don't cling to the fact that the future hasn't happened yet; it's not a defense all by itself. If that's the only way you can defend your opinion, then your opinion's rather indefensible.

And no, I don't just (!!!!!) THINK (!!!!) your predictions are unsafe. They are. Check the charts, read the news updates. "Safe" and "unsafe" are not subjective at all. "Right" and "wrong" (in reference to unknown future events) are. A safe prediction could end up being wrong in the future, just like an unsafe one could be right, so there's no subjectivity there at all. An unbiased mind will look at the present facts and make an objective detemination that the PS3's success is much less likely than it is unlikely. Notice how I didn't say the PS3 will fail. What I said is that it's likely based on the facts. If you don't like basing your opinion on facts, then believe whatever you like. Just don't have any illusions that your opinion is particularly sturdy, and expect unsturdy opinions to get attacked hard.

You seem to agree with most of what I'm saying in the middle of my post. Also at the end of your post, you seem to agree with me that the PS3 is not the likely victor of this battle. And then you say "But a probability high or low is, before all, a probability that will or not reallize ..." If I understand this, you're doing exactly what my point is that you shouldn't bother doing: clinging to the fact that the future isn't guaranteed. Then you say "Wait&See." Sorry, let's all just sit here and pretend like the Wii isn't doing great and the PS3 is, until we're sure that a winner has been decided. We'll postpone all debates about the likely outcome of the console wars until it's all over. So wait, why do these forums exist exactly?

Man...we're still talking on this 2 month old thread?

...Yes?

(Of course I'm not sure how indirectly we're now addressing the thread topic at this point. )

"Never stated that? "since this thread is suppose to be about FUTURE we are both wrong in a way." There ya go."

==> I could have saied "we are both RIGHT" too
But, I understand your point
In fact, I knew that this sentence was stupid, it comes from a stupid translation ...
I wanted to say that we are saying will not have consequence in the futures of consoles since it is just "subjectives estimations" that for the moment cannot be checked (future). So we cannot say if we are wrong or right ...

"How can you both be wrong in a way, if you don't yet know what's right about the future? Rest assured, one of you will be right and one of you will be wrong."

==> Wanted to say this ^^

"That is why I said don't cling to the fact that the future hasn't happened yet; it's not a defense all by itself. If that's the only way you can defend your opinion, then your opinion's rather indefensible."

==> it is not the only way to defend my opinion
BUT it is the best way to make someone doubt about himself when he claim, based on what he think, that "all is over".
Nobody can reject than the future is not know. That help to keep people away from thinking "I have the truth cause the current sales numers favor me"

"And no, I don't just (!!!!!) THINK (!!!!) your predictions are unsafe. They are. Check the charts, read the news updates. "Safe" and "unsafe" are not subjective at all."

==> of course it is subjective ...
it is all about opinion :
http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=3662&start=0#end
If I follow these guys then I can consider that nothing is really safe or unsafe.
I can even think that "the wii will dominate the market" is safe since they bring some arguments (that they consider important and valid) against her.
It is all about "in what do you believe"
Nothing more, nothing less.
This doesn't mean that there are not rationnal arguments that are in favor or against the Wii/PS3/Xbox360. That just show that currently, for the moment, there is no arguments strong enought to allow us to well estimate the future.
Even if these strong/ultimate arguments are, themself, subjecitves (strong/ultimate)
And, here again, it is only my subjectives opinion ...
Of course, If u want to make predictions based only on the sales numbers then ... you will obtain others conclusions.

" "Right" and "wrong" (in reference to unknown future events) are."

==> You re right,
But, again, I didn't truly want to use "WRONG" or 'RIGHT" in this fucking sentence lol

" A safe prediction could end up being wrong in the future, just like an unsafe one could be right, so there's no subjectivity there at all."

==> There is only subjectivity here ...
Cause, by definition, a prediction is subjective and relative.
Same for the fact to think it is safe or not.

" An unbiased mind will look at the present facts and make an objective detemination that the PS3's success is much less likely than it is unlikely."

==> If u just base on numbers sales AAAANNNNDDDD consider that the sell rate is fixed for eternity then YES.
But It is not a "unbiased" mind, it is just a "sales numbers based" mind ...
We all try to get others information in addition to numbers sales to make our prediction for the future. And then I think I begin more complicated to understand what will happen, and to consider hypothesis safe or not (3 consoles, lof of +, lot of - for eachone)

" Notice how I didn't say the PS3 will fail. What I said is that it's likely based on the facts."

==> Well I consider that 90 M PS2 owner still don't have buy a new next-gen console should be a egually important fact than 10/8/3 M total consoles sold ...

" If you don't like basing your opinion on facts, then believe whatever you like. Just don't have any illusions that your opinion is particularly sturdy, and expect unsturdy opinions to get attacked hard."

==> When u attack someone, U don't have to be rude and talk as a
GOD(DESS) that know THE TRUTH. That is all I wanted to say in this thread.

"You seem to agree with most of what I'm saying in the middle of my post. Also at the end of your post, you seem to agree with me that the PS3 is not the likely victor of this battle."

==> I aggry that actually "PS3/Xbox360 sell less than Wii"
So YES, if I base all my opinion on the only TRUE facts that we have (the current sales) "PS3 is not the likely victor of this battle." On this "current sales" side, the probability seems lower for a "PS3 victory", even null. Think that PS3/Xbox360 could "win" is very unsafe.

" And then you say "But a probability high or low is, before all, a probability that will or not reallize ..." If I understand this, you're doing exactly what my point is that you shouldn't bother doing: clinging to the fact that the future isn't guaranteed."

==> because a good way to show to someone that only focus on current sales that nothing is done is to explain him that 15 M is not a lot of console (only 6 month that the 3 consoles are out) for the total market (this is a TRUE FACT too)
But in another hand, I believe that, for other reason (+/- of each console), things are not fixed, that not all is in favor of the wii, that claiming "Wii is the likely victor of this battle" is not so safe.

" Then you say "Wait&See." Sorry, let's all just sit here and pretend like the Wii isn't doing great and the PS3 is, until we're sure that a winner has been decided. We'll postpone all debates about the likely outcome of the console wars until it's all over. So wait, why do these forums exist exactly?""

==> Man, I aggry with you.
But just look my next sentence :
If I follow you, the only fact that be taken in consideration is "Wii sell better than PS3 and Xbox360"
Sorry, let's all just sit here and SEE like the Wii IS doing great and the PS3 ISN'T, AS we KNOW sure that a winner has been decided. We'll postpone all debates about the likely outcome of the console wars BECAUSE it's all over. So wait, why do these forums exist exactly?"

You see ? Some people (Wii supporter in general) only focus on sales claiming, with so much arrogance (i m not talking of you ofc) that the war is over. I just don't like this.
This thread was about the future and speculation.
Knowing this you cannot come and claim that there is no way to speculate on the future cause "Wii sales like hot cakes", that all the PS3 supporters are crazy.
If it is right, then we should just all stop writing on these forums cause the only TRUE FACT are sales numbers and there are no way to discuss them.

Hopefully it is not the case, hopefully PS3 supporters can still dream. Not about their present (that is bad, sales numbers), but about their future that may be good.
That is all I wanted to say on these fews borring post ... make The Queen stop closing the discussion with her "hot shit cakes" argument.

TheSource said: Here are his predictions for 2007 and 2008.  In the gamasutra podcast today he claims his annual reports are quite accurate.  We shall see. 2007 Wii 7.0M NDS 6.0M 360 4.5M PS3 4.5M PS2 3.5M PSP 3.4M GBA 1.8M 2008 Wii 7.0M PS3 6.0M NDS 6.0M 360 5.0M PSP 4.0M PS2 2.5M GBA 0.8M

Wait, how is it that Wii sales are the same but other consoles change. I assum they are what the system sold all year.

Again, I feel most people hold on to the belife the same way they held on to the fact that the Gamecube and N64 would win. Games take a long time to develop, and since developers only get about 20% of the profit(let me know if this is off) then they need to put their faith some where. They relized this. If we want big, we need the 360 becuase of it's large, hardcore user base. They make smaller casual game for the Wii becuase of it's more casual userbase.

I doubt PS3 will suddenly jump like he seggest since developers would have to put more backing into it, and consumers need to have more faith in it. As of now, they only thing that can help them is al of a suddent there was a massive price drop and more developer support. Sadlly, the cards are on Microsoft's table. They have all the big hitters Sony needs. Sony will also miss out on 2007 with no FF13(and perhaps no MGS4 but that never sold that much any way). Right now, the public seems to shun Sony aand praise Nintendo, as well as "is cool" with Microsoft.

As I've always said, the begin of a console race will be the ssame as the end. Sony doesn't have the publics intwerest and it's price tag will prevent it from selling to a larger audience. Chances are, as time goes buy sales will only get lower and lower(which I beleive is happening now)

Also, Gballzack got banned. She was to Nintendoi what Kwaad was to Sony.

 

 

"Right now, the public seems to shun Sony aand praise Nintendo, as well as "is cool" with Microsoft."

 

==> in your minmaybe,

 RIGHT NOW,

 Wii is selling a lot in the world (all market) I'm ok with this = Wii is cool

But

Xbox360 sell well in NA, not bad in EU, VERY bad in japan

 PS3 sell medium in NA, not bad in EU, VERY bad in japan

do you want to know the more funny ?

Both console are freezed for the moment meaning that even with more games/cheapier price, Xbox360 is currently not able to outcompete the PS3

So "Microsoft is cool" only exist in your mind

For the moment, it is more something like "Xbox360 amazing failure rate" in the mind of people

 

 

 

 

@libellule - While I would like for an opinion to be based more on some more concrete reasons than you may have given, I can also tell that you're not a fanboy, so why don't I just take it easy. You're right, the future isn't guaranteed; I just know you'll get dog-piled in an argument if that's the only thing you stand on. Still, you're clearly not in denial about Sony's troubled position, and I respect you for your ability to see things as they are (while hoping for a small miracle in the meanwhile, which from a personal standpoint is perfectly fine.)

to PlagueOfLocust:

Thank you for allowing me to dream ;))

Well, I think this thread is over now.

libellule said:   "Right now, the public seems to shun Sony aand praise Nintendo, as well as "is cool" with Microsoft."   ==> in your minmaybe,  RIGHT NOW,  Wii is selling a lot in the world (all market) I'm ok with this = Wii is cool But Xbox360 sell well in NA, not bad in EU, VERY bad in japan  PS3 sell medium in NA, not bad in EU, VERY bad in japan do you want to know the more funny ? Both console are freezed for the moment meaning that even with more games/cheapier price, Xbox360 is currently not able to outcompete the PS3 So "Microsoft is cool" only exist in your mind For the moment, it is more something like "Xbox360 amazing failure rate" in the mind of people

Fioorst, chillax. You going spaztic.

But http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America

As you can see, 360 out preforms PS3. Now, Europe. http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=Total+Other&cons2=PS3&reg2=Total+Other&cons3=X360&reg3=Total+Other&weekly=1 As you can see, the 360 is now doing better then the PS3

I think you missed what I was saying. "cool with" is like OK. The World is Ok with the 360. Basiclly the only place the PS3 outpreforms the 360 is Japan, and not by much. Now, tell me. Where do you get "360 amazing failure rate" in the mind of people when most would probobly replace 360 for PS3. The meedia seems to say so.

Please 1)Chill anmd 2)Try and bring more of an argument. Can't be cocky if you don't have a firm arguemnt.