A friend of mine is a huge fan of Gran Turismo, but he's fairly sure GT7 will NOT hit 10 million sales - he predicts 5-6, maybe even just 4.

His reasoning is that people will not come back after GT5 disappointed them. So, what do you think?

Edit: Oh, another thing is that he thinks that Driveclub and Project CARS (lol) will steal some of GT7's sales. And he's 150% sure that GT will NEVER hit 2,5 million units on the US again.

Here's my two cents: the simple fact that it's the first GT on the PS4 will make it reach 10 million. The fanbase didn't seem THAT disappointed with GT5, but I'm not part of that fanbase, so who knows.

Oh, and GT6 "doesn't count". It had a horrible timing, should have never been a PS3 game, imo.

People will be back, they need something to play

No, it wont.

The 2nd GT of a generation ALWAYS sells less than the 1st. GT6 also released AFTER the successor of its main console released. And GT6 pretty much looks on par with GT5

So this is new territory for Gran Turismo. We've never seen how a Gran Turismo game would react in this harsh situation. We're seeing it now.

GT7 will sell better than GT5 and GT4 ltd.

If Sony can get GT7 released during holiday 2015 and coupled with a price drop then I think it will do very well. Releasing early on in the console's lifecycle is the perfect place for a Gran Turismo game. Just look at the sales for 2, 4, and 6. None of them could match the sales of their direct predecessor. I'm starting to think Sony should just follow the Nintendo formula and release 1 entry per platform.

Nah, with the PS4's success GT7 will sell more than 10 millions. It would surprise me if it can't.

Shrink? Possibly, depends on where PD goes with the series, or, rather; if they're going anywhere with the series. I assumed it was going to shrink on the PS3 and never in a million years thought that GT 5 would sell anywhere near 10 million, especially on such a dramatically reduced user base. I was wrong. It also depends on how well the PS4 itself will do, at this point I'm thinking it will land somewhere around PS3 territory for lifetime sales, so the installed base should be there.

Don't underestimate the power of the GT franchise. Then again; I won't be hugely surprised if it does shrink a fair bit. Personally, I think Yamauchi and PD need a kick to the balls for their lack of progress on the PS3, let's see if the rest of the fanbase agrees with me.

YES!  And keep other franchises more limited as well.  2 GoWs was good this gen.  6 Ratchets...not so much.  3 Ratchets would have been perfect (and it's my favorite franchise ever and even I'm feeling the fatigue after platinuming Nexus today).

Depends on the game itself. If it's good enough, GT7 could sell on par with GT5. If it comes early enough in the life of the PS4, it could sell more than GT5.

I also don't think that GT5 really disappointed many people. Cosmetically, sure, but the driving was excellent as always, which is what GT fans are mainly after. It offered a huge amount of content over time, too, which was cool. The game GT5 became was much better than GT5 on launch day. My only disappointment was that the menu system sucked, which really isn't a big deal.

It will probably sell 10 million.

I'm a big GT fan and I think it all depends on how GT7 goes. I don't think GT6 is a good indicator of things to come sales wise just because there are so many things holding it back. I do think PD needs to come out guns blazing on the PS4 and really impress people to bolster up the fanbase again. They are certainly capable of doing so and I think they will.