If the sports/fps audience really did care about grafx power, then that means that GC+Xbox sales of Madden would be greater than PS2 sales of Madden (since Madden on those consoles looked better). Looking at Madden 2005 sales... PS2: 4.5 million... GC+Xbox: 2 million... hmm, nope. Xbox did have Halo 2 which sold more than the PS2 FPS, but the PS2 also had a lot more FPS including 2 Medal of Honors, SOCOM, and a Bond game sell over 3 million.

Basically what you're saying is the hardcore Madden and FPS gamers who care about grafx will not pick up the Wii, but they are not a big chunk of the gaming audience. They just aren't. The casual audience is much much bigger than the hardcore graphics loving audience, and those casuals will pick up the Wii. Not to mention the many non-casual and lapse gamers that are picking up the Wii.

So I'd say it will pass the PS2. 

Yeah tough prediction... we should see how the Wii runs. Its final 3 yrs could decide this probabely

The Wii will reach 150 million by the end of its lifespan. If Wii continues to sell over 20 million units a year. Why should Nintendo abandon it? They should continue selling it and releasing cheaper to produce non HD games. How much time and money would it cost to produce a Wii game as opposed to a PS3 or X360 game? I bet it would cost like a fraction of the cost of a X360 or PS3 game. By the looks of some of the games released on the Wii it would take maybe a few months to produce a game.

I reckon Nintendo should say screw Hd gaming which is expensive. The Big N should continue on releasing tons of games of various quality ranging from amazing to crap. 

Wii will pass PS2, it just might reach 150 million units sold, and it has a small shot at 200 million.

The only dangers I see are:

-Third parties keep screwing over the Wii with low quality games of the kind last generation's casual gamers used to buy. This could cost them 10-30 million units if the trend continues.

-The Wii doesn't break as fast as PS2. Could be another 20-40 million units less LTD.

-Sony and Microsoft are both in such a hurry of starting the new generation, they are coming out too soon. This could dramastically lower the Wii's lifetime sales, but it could help the Wii's successor's sales.
The Wii could slow down the PS4 and X720, and by the time Wii 2 launches, they have both run out of steam.
This scenario is unlikely, but it happened to the Dreamcast, which suffered greatly from the PS2 hype.


But then again, there are many factors that WOULD allow the Wii to pass PS2:

-As installed base passes the 50% marketshare, third-parties can't ignore half of the market. Combine that with the lower developement costs, and you see a source of huge profit for third-parties.

-More and more kinds of gamers start embracing the Wii. This has positive effects on game sales in multiple genres. Third-parties might also be seeing that sales of games with high quality are higher than the sales of shovelware. By making better games and taking a little more risk, they will eventually turn more profit, and they would see a lot of respect form the medai and gamers, boosting their game sales under hardcore gamers.

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One thing I'm pretty certain about: Wii's succesessor WILL pass PS2. If and when Wii will, is up to third-parties, Sony and Microsoft, and, of course, the consumer.

I used the FF analogy because FF10 came out early and FF12 came out late on the PS2 and were made by the same company and the graphical difference is immense.  Also because it was the first thing that came to mind.  I didn't get the PS2 early enough in its life to experience most of the early games but I did pick up FF10.  I could have used Madden instead of FF, the graphical upgrades Madden made through the PS2's life are significant also and a sports game is definately casual.

Also, you sound like you think I don't want the Wii to do good.  I want it to sell lots of systems so that Sony and Microsoft will relize that it is a mistake to put out expensive consoles.  I just don't think it will pass the 120 million-ish that the PS2 has gotten so far.  Like I said, the Wii isn't going to keep selling out in an hour like it is now for the rest of its life span, so to make some of the bold statements made here are kind of premature but if it is givin a good life span (6ish years) it should sell a good amount of systems because of this good start it has.

Can anyone extrapolate the EXACT CURRENT sales for the PS2. If the sales were about 125 million since the last sales update, when was the last update? How long has it been since the last Sony update? Could the PS2 be as high as 130 million? Please take this seriously, can this be possible?

The wii will definitely pass the sales of the PS2.

PS2 sales - Max 150 million - Probably 135-140 mil.

Wii is currently selling 1.8 mil/month = 21.6 mil/year

Historically the most popular console gains momentum in the 2nd thru 5th years.

It is likely that by the end of this year they will be selling 2.5 mil/month = 30 mil/year

By the end of year 5 this would make it 32 mil (Currently 21 mil + 1.8 for 6 month) + 30*3 = 122 mil.

By this time Nintendo will be introducing the Wii2, but with the large library of games and very low price (probably $99) they will continue to sell and ultimately pass the lifetime sales of the PS2.

I don't think so. For that, PS2 have to die before and it's not for now :)

i suppose you've never heard of the  "product life cycle".

many manufacturers project that their products whould have a life cycle of five years. 

1st year - introduction

2nd year - aceptance and increase sales

3rd year - product maturity

4th year - decline

5th year - death 

so its stupid to asume that sales would remain as high as you predict.

the ps2 is currently in its decline and would eventualy die in the next year or two. but by then, it would probably have sold 125-130m units.  and to set an example the xbox died in what? 5 years or so? same with the cube. died early.  the ps2 was first and still outlived both.  got to give sony credit for being able to develop a really good product.

Umm, NES/Famicom had a 20 year product cycle, nothing to show that Wii won't have a very long product cycle as well