This is the PS4, it surpasses expectations over and over agian.  You may be confusing it with some other products that tend to fail and underpreferm quite a bit.  

They had all year to see its massive sales and prepare for the holidays.

Looking at 360 and PS3 numbers and its very possible and with in reach.

I seriously doubt PS4 will reach 20 million this holiday, another 8 millions consoles? I seriously doubt that, they have to sell 4 million consoles in both November and December (that's for a 50/50 split) to reach that goal, crazy talk

However in saying that, i believe around the 16 million mark is reasonable and within reach. SONY doesnt have any big IP release at all this couple of months (except LBP3 which i doubt will move many consoles) but the ps4 sells well regardless. If they had the Order releasing these holidays i would possibly say even 17-18 million but no more then that

Also i am going off the sales for the ps4 based on VGCHARTZ.....

It now points to 17 to best case 18mi... Won´t make that much difference for a year longe prediction.

Beliving it can sell 7mi in those 3 months is kind of far fetch. But who knows? May be people realy don´t need exclusive games and content to buy a console, and still think owning the physical disc is important.

1.5m october

2.5m november

4m december

would be a more accurate breakdown

no console is selling 50/50 november/december

not even the xbox 360 in the us only

still impossible to happen

1.5m october would be 25% wow increas from september (destiny and fifa 15 launch)

what excatly has ps4 to offer in october beside some decent selling multipalts and the worst launch fucked up exclusive game?

2.5m november would be the same figure like the best ever selling november for x360  and higher than any ps3 november

and only the last two weeks in november the ps4 has its exclusive game, thrid party co marketing games and bundles (lpb, farcry 4 and gtaV - all released on 18. november)

4m december would be the same as best selling ps3 and x360 december. only the wii ever managed to sell more than 4m in december

we talk about frist year sales for a 399 console here

if all this come ture, ps4 will have 200m lifetime

I keep thinking 20M will happen in March 2015, but congrats for this bold prediction.

PS4 have more exclusives than Xbone... there are more games overall... like ~30 mores games than Xbone right now.

You know what I´m talking. Don´t go to the indie bonanza argument.

It would be better if you say "Multplats are better on PS4".

But well, other than Japan there is noting that could push the PS4 much more over last year numbers, price is the same, no big exclusives, no big change in UI and no new features.

Worst indeed if VGChartz is right with pre-orders numbers, neither COD-AW nor AC-U will move consoles, we don´t have Battlefield this year and remakes are not pushing that great new hardware.

But let´s see. Sony will probaly state a forecast for this hollydays in their Q Report.

I know it is your opinion.

Reallity = PS4 have the best and most diverse library of the two consoles.

UI is the fastest and more easy to use I ever see in a console... most people find it is better than Xbone's UI... maybe the old 360 UI was better.

They never state holiday forecast lol.

PS4 will sell a lot this holiday... it is crazy to thing otherwise.

I really, really doubt it.