I was just thinking about how many Wii U will be shipped this fiscal year and realized there is a strong chance it doesnt even match last years numbers.

Wii U launched in late Nov/early Dec in America/Europe/Japan and the fiscal year ends on Mar 31 so it was on the market for 4 months. In that time Nintendo shipped 3.45m units.

From Apr 1-Sept 30, Nintendo shipped an additional 460k units for a total of 3.91m. In order to pass last years shipments, they woukd need to ship an additional 3m from Oct 1-Mar 31.

We dont have numbers for the latest quarter yet but Vgchartz has Wii U sell through at 5.25m. Its safe to assume shipments are 5.5-6m. That leaves another .9-1.4m for Jan-March, is that possible?

It's unlikely it'll do anymore than 500k in Q1, DK isn't going to push hardware that much.

So yeah, down YoY with an extra 7 - 8 months is not good.

DK sells more than you give it credit for. Wii U selling 500,000 over 3 months is a complete underestimation. 500,000 per month is more realistic, selling at least 100,000 Wii U's sold worldwide every week is plausible.

Impossible. If the Wii U can sell 5.2 million consoles with the garbage advertising (if any) it had, lack of compelling games outside 3d world and pikmin, and almost no rpg games for the japanese market, then i can only imagine this year, when games like Smash for the hardcore, Mario Kart for everyone, X and the shin megami/fire emblem crossover for rpg fans, and bayonetta 2 for the action fans come out.

it isn't. not even close, seece.

Did u even read the OP?

Last fiscal year ended March 31, 2013. Wii U shipped 3.45m by then

This fiscal year is from April 1, 2013-March 31, 2014. In the first 6 months Wii U shipped only 460k. That means it needs to ship another 3m from October 1, 2013-March 31, 2014 in order to pass last fiscal years shipments.

2m over the holiday quarter is a reasonable estimate so from January 1, 2014-March 31, 2014 there needs to be another 1m shipped give or take a few 100k.

I believe fiscal year 2013/14 will be worse than fiscal year 2012/13 in terms of Wii U hardware sales. But it might actually be quite a close call
I've put Wii U sales at 900 000-1,2 million during Q1.

How much do u think it will ship this quarter? And why?

DK is certainly a good seller, but how much impact did SM3DW really have on Wii U sales.... I wouldn't consider the holiday season a success for the Wii U... It actually still looks pathetic in all honesty. 500k per month... no, just no.

To answer the OP's question... It's very likely.

Ugh dude you've shown you can't accurately predict WiiU sales so stop calling out others. DK is not going to shift hundred of thousands of consoles and other than that there is no other SW that will sell systems.