toastboy44562 said:
This member http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/profile/84419/joethebro/#content expects the Xbox One to do worse in January than Wii U did. He expects 280k or less worldwide for the whole month. Many agreed with him. How can you guys possibly think this??!? Xbox One is still sold out in some area in the US. I live in the suburbs and you cannot find Xbox One units at best buy. Xbox One can easily do 200k the first week in January, then 150k the second week, 120k the third, and 120k in the fourth. Xbox One sales will be near 600k for the month of January. How can you guys possibly think that it will only do around 250k? I want to seriously learn how you guys came up with that number. I expect PS4 to do more than a Million in January and Wii U to do around 300k
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Regarding stock, anybody that has $500+ to spend can surely figure out how to find an Xbox One without much trouble.
250k would be a minimum floor on sales I think. My optimistic expectation is 350k~400k world wide.
If you want to know how to come up with those numbers, it's just by normal seasonal adjustment of sales. Historically sales in January are around 25% of December. XB1 will be around 1 Million for December, so 25% of that is 250k. I add in a somewhat optimistic 50% boost since it's a new console to get around 375k. If anything that's too much (you can quote me).
With the current stock picture: in US availability is so-so, while in Europe supply has already exceeded demand practically everywhere. New consoles have not been so "in stock" this time of year, so don't expect unusually high boost in January.