Just a minor note..if you are talking second half of the year..June games should not be included (jan-feb-mar-apr-may-june) June is month 6. Second 1/2 of the year starts in July (july-aug-sept-oct-nov-dec)
I would say the big 10 games for each system are (in the USA)..
360: Too Human, Bioshock, Alan Wake, GTA 4, Madden, Halo 3, Blue Dragon, Forza 2, Mass Effect, Devil May Cry 4
Wii: Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, Metroid Prime 3, Nights, Guitar Hero 3, DDR Hot Mix, Resident Evil: UC, Disaster: Day of Crisis, Mario & Sonic at the Olympics, and either Wii Health or Wii Music
PS3: GTA, Madden, Heavenly Sword, Ninja Gaiden, Killzone 2, Ratchet & Clank, Assassin's Creed, Devil May Cry 4, Metal Gear Solid 4, Singstar
Japan is far different in terms of what people will like and buy.
Wii - Galaxy, Nights, Brawl, Opoona, Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles, Dragon Quest Swords, Wii Health, Wii Music, RE: UC, Mario & Sonic
PS3 - Heavenly Sword, MGS4, GTA (500k is possible), Devil May Cry 4
360 - Lost Odyssey, Devil May Cry 4, GTA (100-200k?)
Europe is hardest to guess...
Wii - Super Paper Mario, Wii Health, Galaxy, Mario Party 8, Guitar Hero 3, DDR Hot mix, Mario & Sonic, RE: UC, Harry Potter, Wii Music
PS3 - Lair, Heavenly Sword, MGS4, GTA, Assassin's Creed, Singstar, Ratchet and Clank, Ninja Gaiden, Killzone 2, Devil May Cry 4
360 - GTA, Assassin's Creed, Halo 3, Too Human, Blue Dragon, Forza 2, Devil May Cry 4, Lost Odyssey, Tenchu, Guitar Hero 3
In terms of sales, 360 is going to get destroyed in Japan by Wii & PS3, Wii will keep outselling PS3, but itself will be destroyed in the DQIX DS hoopla. Here in the USA, 360 and Wii will alternate between 1st and 2nd depending on the exact release dates of big games.
In terms of games that will greatly raise hardware sales for a long time in the USA, each system has a couple big guns.
360 has Halo 3, GTA as the nuclear options, lifting sales by perhaps 100-200k for two-three weeks pre-holidays. GH3, Madden, Assassin's Creed, Too Human are huge bombs, probably worth a 25-50k boost in hardware for a few weeks. The other big 360 titles will sell decently to very well, but will not pick up the hardware much.
PS3 has a couple huge bombs in GTA, Madden, Assassin's Creed, Ratchet & Clank and Metal Gear Solid 4. GTA will sell better on 360, and it will pick up 360 hardware more since it is cheaper - so I think it is only like a 50k per week boost -preholidays, while the others big games are like a 2-4 week 25k weekly boost.
Wii has two markets to appeal too, casual Wii gamers, and traditional gamers. Wii Health/Music, DDR, GH3 are the killer apps for the casuals, while everything else goes to the traditional gamers. Wii, because of price will get a number of 50k boosts (GH3, DDR, Wii Health, RE, Disaster), and couple of big spikes of like 100k if Galaxy, Prime, or Brawl are released before November. Nights and Mario & Sonic could do 300k+ if they are made well and advertised since they could (maybe) find an audience with casuals and traditional gamers.
Europe I think will split. The UK will largely resemble the US market, with Sony a bit stronger than it is in the USA right now. France will be Wii, PS3, 360. Spain will likely be pretty close between PS3 and Wii. Generally speaking, 360 will sell least overall, but maintain a slim lead as Wii closes in, while PS3 will lose ground to the Wii, but catch up (in relative terms) to 360.
edited by BenKenobi88 - needed breaks for easier reading.