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Forums - Gaming Discussion - ioi speaks out about ergh "VGC analysts"

Zod95 on 01 January 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
Zod95 said:
Max King of the Wild said:

And years ago a developer (forgot which one) said that people shouldn't take VGC seriously because VGC numbers of their games were way off. I want to say it was Factor 5/Free Radical or something. That was the begining of when I started to stop taking SW sales to mean anything.

Ok Max, then please tell me: in your opinion, what does VGChartz do differently from its "competitors" (similar services like Media Create, Famistu, Box Office Mojo, BARB, etc.) that makes it exceptionable/unreliable and why such differences are key to the reputation and credibility of the system?

What do they do differently? They report in territories they have absolutely no data for because they try to report global numbers. Their competitors report in specifc markets. Their competitors have much more resources (man power, money and data) for smaller areas.

You raised 2 important issues:

1 - "They report in territories they have absolutely no data"

2 - "Their competitors have much more resources"

So I have 3 questions for you:

1 - How do you know they report in territories they have absolutely no data?

2 - How do you know the resources of VGChartz?

3 - How do you know that, given the resources VGChartz has at disposal, there can't be a way to use them in order to get results as accurate as its competitors?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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Zod95 on 01 January 2014
kirby007 said:

And as much as devs like to claim they know the figure of their games, i severly doubt they know much more then total copies created

They should know their revenues...



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

kirby007 on 01 January 2014
Zod95 said:
kirby007 said:

And as much as devs like to claim they know the figure of their games, i severly doubt they know much more then total copies created

They should know their revenues...

revenue of units shipped to retail yes



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

Zod95 on 01 January 2014
kirby007 said:
Zod95 said:
kirby007 said:

And as much as devs like to claim they know the figure of their games, i severly doubt they know much more then total copies created

They should know their revenues...

revenue of units shipped to retail yes

I think that's not revenue. As far as I know, the revenue comes with the units sold. The retailer takes no risk.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Max King of the Wild on 01 January 2014
Zod95 said:

You raised 2 important issues:

1 - "They report in territories they have absolutely no data"

2 - "Their competitors have much more resources"

So I have 3 questions for you:

1 - How do you know they report in territories they have absolutely no data?

2 - How do you know the resources of VGChartz?

3 - How do you know that, given the resources VGChartz has at disposal, there can't be a way to use them in order to get results as accurate as its competitors?

1. 2. & 3. common sense. do you think VGC gets data from Africa, Japan and Middle East? Because they report numbers for each of those regions. If i remember correctly ioi said they fet 2000 data points a week.Thats not even enough for US let alone global. I know VGC resources because Ive been here since 2007. It use to be ioi doing estimates from home as a hobby.



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Zod95 on 01 January 2014
Max King of the Wild said:
Zod95 said:

You raised 2 important issues:

1 - "They report in territories they have absolutely no data"

2 - "Their competitors have much more resources"

So I have 3 questions for you:

1 - How do you know they report in territories they have absolutely no data?

2 - How do you know the resources of VGChartz?

3 - How do you know that, given the resources VGChartz has at disposal, there can't be a way to use them in order to get results as accurate as its competitors?

1. 2. & 3. common sense. do you think VGC gets data from Africa, Japan and Middle East? Because they report numbers for each of those regions. If i remember correctly ioi said they fet 2000 data points a week.Thats not even enough for US let alone global. I know VGC resources because Ive been here since 2007. It use to be ioi doing estimates from home as a hobby.

1 - Common sense and the 2000 data points per week aren't enough to claim they get no data from Africa, Japan and Middle East. The fact that you believe that not even USA would be totally covered with 2000 data points doesn't mean they have all of them in there. I'm not saying I'm sure you are wrong, just that you can't be sure to be right. What if VGChartz covers the main world regions and has extrapolations methods to make good estimations about totals?

2 - There is no common sense here. How can you guess such thing? Can you be sure that in 2007 it was ioi all alone to get the numbers? And how can you be sure that now (7 years later) nothing has changed?

3 - Specifically what common sense are you applying here? What hard science can support you in order to claim "no, there can't be a way, it's impossible and there isn't room for out-of-the-box solutions"?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Lawlight on 01 January 2014
kirby007 said:
Zod95 said:
kirby007 said:

And as much as devs like to claim they know the figure of their games, i severly doubt they know much more then total copies created

They should know their revenues...

revenue of units shipped to retail yes

And according to ioi, shipped = sold.



Lawlight on 01 January 2014
Zod95 said:

1 - Common sense and the 2000 data points per week aren't enough to claim they get no data from Africa, Japan and Middle East. The fact that you believe that not even USA would be totally covered with 2000 data points doesn't mean they have all of them in there. I'm not saying I'm sure you are wrong, just that you can't be sure to be right. What if VGChartz covers the main world regions and has extrapolations methods to make good estimations about totals?

2 - There is no common sense here. How can you guess such thing? Can you be sure that in 2007 it was ioi all alone to get the numbers? And how can you be sure that now (7 years later) nothing has changed?

3 - Specifically what common sense are you applying here? What hard science can support you in order to claim "no, there can't be a way, it's impossible and there isn't room for out-of-the-box solutions"?


2000 data points for worldwide numbers? Well, that would expect that big inaccuracies.



MaskedBandit2 on 02 January 2014
oldschoolfool said:
MaskedBandit2 said:

 

This is really tough to say because of how small the sample is.  On one hand, something like game 1 shows a large, clear decline, and so a general estimation showing a decline I think would be fine.  Just for easy calculations for show, scaled by 200, for game 1, week 1 published as ~200k, week 2 published as ~80k, and week 3 published as ~40k.  The numbers imply a reasonable level of doubt while still giving actual information about the current state of the title.  Game 2 on the other hand, the difference between week 2 and week 3 is so small, I have to wonder if there is just some statisical noise involved.  For me, I think reporting both as ~70k would be a better bet than trying to discern a trend between the weeks. 

I don't think it would be wise to publish the actual starting data, but that could also help show where the published numbers are coming from to also allow the user to make reasonable judgment about the publishings as well. 

Like Torillian stated, reporting the 95% CI in addition could also help solve the problem of misrepresentation and show that there is a range of values to consider because of the small starting data. 

And of course, the origin of the starting data needs to be explained, as I mentioned before.  Not only is it small, but does is it actually representative of the whole market?  Where and how is this data being gathered? 

Just let it go already. You should just assume the numbers aren't %100 accurate,end of story. No tracking are rating service is %100 accurate/perfect. ioi can run this site however he wants. He's not obligated to explain anything 2 you. If your such an expert and think you can do a better job of tracking numbers,then why not come up with your own website. You should just be thankful this is a free service. If you have vgchartz pro and your paying for these numbers,then all of your points and questions are %100 valid. These numbers aren't misleading,because %99 of people are smart enough to know there not %100 accurate. There's no possible way they can be,unless you have a person tracking every sale,in every store in the world. 

Well, he clearly asked me a question and asked for my opinion, so I gave it.  Again, I never once said it had to be 100% accurate or that 100% accuracy is even possible.  The goal, however, should be to strive to be as close to 100% accuracy as possible, and right now, VGC is not even close.  Couple the incredibly small sales data collection and ioi saying not to take the numbers at face value, but rather consider a range, their reporting methods and format make no sense to me.  That's what I'm saying.

That and to expand their methodology page (if possible) to help establish credibility. 



Hedra42 on 02 January 2014
Lawlight said:

Also, next time someone tells me that official numbers are shipped and not sold and we should therefore use vgchartz's numbers instead, I'll post this:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=3963064&postcount=53
Lawlight said:
kirby007 said:
Zod95 said:
kirby007 said:

And as much as devs like to claim they know the figure of their games, i severly doubt they know much more then total copies created

They should know their revenues...

revenue of units shipped to retail yes

And according to ioi, shipped = sold.


The link you are quoting from is to a post made 7 years ago, from a thread about a list of estimated software figures. It says 'shipped=sold give or take a few tens of thousands in most of these cases'.  It appears to be commenting about how close the shipped and sold figures were for that specific software at that specific time. Therefore it has been quoted out of context, and has nothing to do with the discussion here. I don't understand the point you're trying to make, by digging up something that old and irrelevant, and pledging to keep repeating it.

Back on topic, it's been established well enough on this thread now, thanks to ioi's explanations, what VGChartz figures represent and how they are used. The only issues seem to stem from the general lack of understanding here and across the internet about this. From what I've seen on this thread, ioi has been receptive to feedback and suggestions in that respect, and if that is addressed, it may lead to a reduction in VGChartz bashing in the future.