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Forums - Sales - The official January NPD Thread

ioinigger on 16 February 2008

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ioinigger on 16 February 2008

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ioinigger on 16 February 2008

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ioinigger on 16 February 2008

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konnichiwa on 16 February 2008

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DMeisterJ on 16 February 2008

Very annoyoing to have just blank pages.



Stever89 on 16 February 2008
Diomedes1976 said:
This is ridiculous.NPD are proffesionals and their data sample is 100 times bigger .Cant understand why data is changed when GFK or MC gives their data but with NPD we have to have this absurd rivality that detracts from the webpage credibility.

I'm going to take a shot in the dark with this, but my view of it is that the markets in Europe are much smaller than the US market (relative to the total NA market). Take a look at this chart. The Total Others market as a whole is about as big as the NA market, but each market is much smaller, and GFK and MC (as far as I know) track each country separately, and I believe it was GFK that said they tracked 80% of Germany's market. Germany as a whole is much smaller than US, so it's 80% could be very accurate, compared to NPD estimated 60%. Also, if you're off by 100k in Germany, it's nearly 10% of the entire market (all the consoles added together) at this time. If you're off 100k in the US, it's only less than 1% of any console, much less the entire market. The fact that he's 60k less on the PS3 is hardly that big in the scope of things.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that he probably doesn't have a very good coverage of Europe, and combine that with the smaller market, he has more reasons to change those numbers, whereas in US he probably has a better coverage, and it's a bigger market.

Also, he doesn't just change numbers on a whim. He changed those Germany and UK numbers after looking at them, and he'll make corrections to January's numbers if/when he sees fit. We can look back at Novembers numbers and know they probably won't be changed, but we can't say that for January's numbers won't change, because even without NPD he might change them for certain reasons (financial reports for example). NPD, on the other hand, might drastically change their numbers later and we'd never know. And again, they have a monopoly on these monthly sales numbers, so of course everybody is going to use them, no matter how much they change them.

If VGChartz could become known as more reliable numbers, then they would be seriously hurt (financially).

And finally, it's not like he's not going to change them. He has to look at the numbers, call a few people up, etc etc (basically what he already said), and then he'll change what he sees fit.

The two tracking firms in Japan (I forget their names right now), don't always agree, and are at times way off from each other (and at times disagree with VGChartz), yet we don't find them inaccurate or VGChartz inaccurate, even though those tracking firms are probably considered the "official" numbers over VGChartz. 



CrazzyMan on 16 February 2008

...and excellent point.
The ONLY difference, Microsoft knew, that x360 numbers will be low/lower in Januray, due shortages, and COMMENTED on THAT, before NPD numbers came.
That makes "PS3 outselling x360 in January" statement more creadible.

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSN1337448620080213

"We're literally out of stock in many stores. We think this will have an impact on our sales," Bell said. "It may cause the overall industry number to be down a little bit.

"Retailers have been really upset, they are on allocation. It is a lag I think we're seeing in January and that may continue into February, then as spring ramps up, we'll be able to meet that demand."



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

mike_intellivision on 16 February 2008

@Stever89
Excellent post. I cannot fathom why people think NPD estimates are gospel and VGChartz estimates are worthless.

Because VGChartz is the equivalent of "open source" -- everyone sees when changes are made.

Because NPD guards its information more closely than some national secrets, no one knows what changes it makes (unless you are paying them).

The analogy to the situation in Japan was excellent ... because there are multiple sources issuing weekly reports which sometimes have very different numbers.

Also, as I have stated before, I don't think NPD really knows how to account for not having Wal Mart and Toys R Us in their sample, especially given the very different dynamics of the Wii buyers, compared to the PS3 and Xbox 360 buyers.

Finally, Patcher's estimates were much closer to VGC than NPD, so others who in the industry and know the industry (and I can't believe I am writing this about Patcher) thought along the same lines as ioi before the announcement.

Mike from Morgantown



      


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