Yeah. Linear projections don't work because you can't have more than 99.9- market share or less than .0-1 %market share.

Things will eventually have to level off, as large fluctuations start contributing less to the overall sales.

God 360 is falling, and Wii is rising like a rocket. PS3 is doing that whole slow and steady thing, it may hit 25% or even 30% by the end of this year.

I would guess around 48/23/29 Wii/ps3/360 by the end of the year, though MS still has some price drops it could use to spark sales back up.

If you think the PS3 will hit 25%, it would basically have to pass the 360 selling 7 million more units than the 360 this year. To reach 30%, if the Wii settles around 50% this year, the PS3 would have to have the 360 outsold on a 3-to-2 installed base basis. So it would have to outsell the 360 by 15.5 million more units + a 1.5x ratio for all units the 360 sells this year. Conservatively, it would have to outsell the 360 by approximately 25 million units this year, or sell a total of 32 million units this year to reach 30%.

I'd be happy to bet you that the PS3 will not reach 25% this year. Most likely, it at least 3 million units short of 25%.

Interesting, but to some of you other people.

Of course X360 is falling, the only way it could have avoided it was by outselling Ps3+Wii 2:1, and we all know that is far from happening.

How are you so certain Ps3 will ever make 25 % share? If Wii remains close to 50 %, which it will, there are only 50ish % left for others. That means, Ps3 will have to outsell 360 in total sales, before 25 % market share. That means, we doubtfully will see a market share 25 % for Ps3 untill mid 09

This is exactly what my "simple math" post said (a few posts up).  The Wii will likely reach 50%, which means the PS3 has to surpass the 360 to reach 25%.  If the Wii is above 50% when that happens, the 360 will drop below 25% before the PS3 will hit 25%.  Otherwise, the opposite will happen.

I think the PS3 will reach 25%, but it's going to be very tight.  And the 360 probably wouldn't get pushed down near 20% simply because there'd have to be a huge gap between the 360 and PS3 to accomodate those numbers. 

im sick of this xbox price drop thing. if and when microsoft drops the price so will sony. sony has cut the price of making tthe ps3 in half and lazy ass microsoft has been out a year longer and still has not. (if it did then they are price hores and are not dropping prices).

point is there is no demand for the xbox 360 anywhere esle but U.S.A. and its a fact that there is for the ps3. so ps3 will have a higher market share then xbox but this year i dont think it will.

How are you a price whore if you are losing money on a console sale? Is Nintendo a price whore for making a profit on the wii?

It is without doubt that MS has reduced construction costs of the 360 (though with the RRoD Warantee, who knows where they stand.)

That fact of the matter is MS has a much larger price drop window than the PS3 has. I seriously doubt the ability of Sony to drop the PS3 price another $50-100, but I am sure MS can, or soon will be able to.

@ The Big Fat J

So you want to bet that the PS3 won't hit 25 percent this year?

what'd be the terms?

Hey CrashMan, how you do get Excel to export graphs to picture files? I have a few graphs that are similar to this one, and I think it'd be interesting to compare them.

But my graphs don't come out right (I'm using Print Screen to get them to picture files).