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Forums - Sony - How does Sony not Win this Gen

bigjon on 19 November 2013

as the point that PS3 only caught the 360 because of Japan. You do realize that PS3's edge over 360 was only 7.5 mil in its home country. The 360 had a 17 million edge in its home country. One could argue that Sony operates at a natural disadvantage because the 360 has the larget market it the world in its backyard and Sony operates from a much smaller market that has been in decline now for a decade.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

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STRYKIE on 19 November 2013
fallen said:
STRYKIE said:
fallen said:
bigjon said:
Last gen they overcame a year head start by the 360, a horrible 1st 18 months, and high cost (with little added value) to pass the 360. This gen. Same launch month. Cheaper console. Great start. No anomalies like the Wii to contend with (and leech casual sales and control of japan).  I mean I see no reason a person could go wrong with a XB1 purchase, but I see few reason why someone would purchase an XB1 over a PS4 (obviously the main thing is if you want to play one of their exclusives would be the main thing) Last gen the 360 got most of the mainstream gamers in NA and UK, Sony about everywhere else. I think due to the price and hype the PS4 come close to splitting these markets. I also see the PS4 dominiating Japan which last gen the Wii hurt it there alot.  I see WW the XB1 seeing slightly decreased console sales and in a twist it having a lower attach rate (seen a more of an all in one, who would buy a PS4 except to play games). I just think things could snowball a bit for Sony and being able to get a 55 to 60% market shart with the XB1 getting 30-35% and Wii U maybe 10 to 15%. That is WW. In NA and UK maybe like 40 to 45 for MS 35 to 40 for PS4 and Wii U gets the scraps.  All in all this gen I see total Console sales way down, but the PS4+XB1 will be = or > than PS3+360, of course the different is the Wii U gets 20 to 30 mil compared to over 100 mil the Wii got.

Err, actually 360 has outsold PS3 worldwide (just google for their recent respective 80 million sold announcements, Sony's was 3 weeks after Microsoft's)

 

Also, your points are valid, but do note the PS3 had an uncontested market all to itself in Japan to skew the worldwide sales (which wont change with PS4, but still makes the PS3 accomplishment of almost catching 360 come with a caveat, meaning 360 outsold PS3 to a greater degree everywhere outside Japan).

 

MS has made it difficult for themselves but it's a long generation. a simple price cut to 399 for Xbox One at any time for example would change a lot of things. They'll also have the big guns of Halo and Gears waiting in the wings. Sony has big guns of Uncharted and god of bore waiting, but imo those franchises are not as big to the mainstream (despite their popularity on forums)

......

 

Has this been the first time you've logged in since 2010 out of curiosity?


What do you have issue with in my post? Would you like links for the respective recent 80m announcements?

 

As I said, MS has made it an uphill battle initially mostly due to the 499 price, but it's way to long a generation to conclude a winner just yet.

Well first off, given the meagre disparity between the PS3 and 360 worldwide figures, I've maintained that it shouldn't be a talking point either way. I also consistently made a point of this between the original Xbox and Gamecube during the 6th gen. But to correct your notion, announcements aren't real time.

As I mentioned in my previous post, you can't downplay either install base on the basis of a single region. That's like me saying the 360 was only on top previously because of the UK.

And I couldn't help but raise an eyebrow at your emphasised disdain for God of War (I don't disrespect your opinion) and going on to disregard Gran Turismo, each and every iteration of the series have been released at the most unfavorble times thinkable (yes, even on the PS2), it's a small miracle that they went on to sell what they did. The Uncharted/Gears games have all roughly sold about the same, I don't get it?



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greenmedic88 on 20 November 2013

It will be a more interesting generation maybe; it's not as though any of the big three are going to hit it out of the park this time. Nintendo is already out of the equation as a market leader as the 8th gen will be more GameCube than anything else.

The majority marketshare will probably be closer to an even split between the XB1 and PS4 with the PS4 initially being better positioned to take a small lead. We'll see how that develops as software drives hardware sales rather than initial new product hype and consumer enthusiasm.

Number of hardware units sold will probably mean less during the 8th gen, which may well be the last as focus continues to shift to services and software. Naturally, there has to be some sort of box on which to connect to said services and software (contrary to a PC gamer popular belief, everyone will not be building their own box) but the focus is still shifting away from the box itself. I'm thinking something like the PS Vita TV micro console may well be the "face" of the PS5.

That said, it would be no surprise to me at all if Sony sells more PS4s in every region, including NA, than the XB1. Price-wise, the XB1 is hobbled by Kinect 2. MS won't increase losses by giving it away for free, and releasing an non Kinect 2 SKU doesn't really seem like it's on the table for their overall platform plan currently. MS drops the price of their current SKU to $399 at a larger loss, SCE can just as easily drop the price of theirs to $299. That said, I seriously doubt there will be a race to see who can lose the most money on hardware in the interest of "winning" more sales. Hardware pricing will most likely be dictated by streamlining in manufacturing processes, reduction in parts and silicon die sizes, etc. and the prerequisite external hardware refreshes.



STRYKIE on 20 November 2013
fallen said:
STRYKIE said:
By the way, I'm just thinking out loud here, but what's with the notion that Japan was Sony's only saving grace for the edge in worldwide sales? Should we pretend that the 360 didn't benefit from the PS3 being grotesquely overpriced for over 5 years in the UK?

Huh? That is Sony's own fault then if that is the case (I dont live in UK). Nobody made them include an expendsive Blu Ray any more than somebody made MS include Kinect. I'm just pointing out facts.

 

Are you going to dsay "Ps4 only sold more cause X1 was grotesquely overpriced" if initial sales reports favor PS4? It's the exact same situation.

 

Nope, each platform holder must live with their decisions. But we can analyze those.

Oh, so now the media functions incentive is frowned upon?

But to put into perspective what I'm saying: Most systems drop to under £200 within a year, if they haven't already launched at that RRP to begin with. The 360 Core I believe did this in August 2007. Followed by the 360 Elite in 2009. Now compare that to SCEUK refusing to budge under £200 for any SKU until the introduction of the 12GB Super Slim in September 2012.



Bet with Einsam_Delphin: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=172355&page=11

Fifaguy360 on 20 November 2013

Too early to say anything right now.



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tiffac on 20 November 2013
fallen said:

What do you have issue with in my post? Would you like links for the respective recent 80m announcements?

 

As I said, MS has made it an uphill battle initially mostly due to the 499 price, but it's way to long a generation to conclude a winner just yet.

Don't tell me you believe that MS was able to sell an additional 600k to reach 80M in 2 weeks (Oct 17) before Sony announced theirs on Nov 2nd because MS official 360 numbers as of Sept 30 is at 79.4 shipped.

That's just highly unlikely at the tail end of a generation and not during a holiday period.

Edit: Just to be clear, I still think the Vgchartz PS3 estimated numbers are still high to the possible actual numbers. I just don't think the PS3 is leading by that much. Not with the shipped numbers given out by Sony.



Lawlight on 20 November 2013
nanarchy said:
I don't think anything is certain this gen. MS are chasing a much wider audience than Sony is, if that works then even if Sony wins the gamers mindshare then MS may win the console gen. It is impossible to really tell at this point in time.

What does MS offer the wider audience that would get them to shell $500?



DarkD on 20 November 2013

It's hard to say still. What Sony has is the loudest and largest super hardcore players. They fill up forums with dozens of threads promoting their consoles bashing others and telling off people who post anti playstation news. Just look at when someone posted a picture of an overheating PS4 at a retail store. Anyone who said there was even the slightest chance of that being a launch issue was shot out of the room.

What I'm saying is, all we could be seeing is those super mega death PS4 hardcore fans who are buying the system at launch. The numbers could trickle off in the coming weeks.

Secondly, there is still the chance that as I've said in other threads, the launch issues are actually larger than Sony claims. Not saying they aren't honestly reporting the numbers, but what if the console is a timebomb. Amazon's shoddy treatment of the consoles may have only set off the bomb which will inevitably hit PS4 owners in the coming year. There are many people who have stated that their console started off working, but died after playing it for a day or so.



KingdomHeartsFan on 20 November 2013
fallen said:

Err, actually 360 has outsold PS3 worldwide (just google for their recent respective 80 million sold announcements, Sony's was 3 weeks after Microsoft's)

 

Also, your points are valid, but do note the PS3 had an uncontested market all to itself in Japan to skew the worldwide sales (which wont change with PS4, but still makes the PS3 accomplishment of almost catching 360 come with a caveat, meaning 360 outsold PS3 to a greater degree everywhere outside Japan).

 

MS has made it difficult for themselves but it's a long generation. a simple price cut to 399 for Xbox One at any time for example would change a lot of things. They'll also have the big guns of Halo and Gears waiting in the wings. Sony has big guns of Uncharted and god of bore waiting, but imo those franchises are not as big to the mainstream (despite their popularity on forums)

Japan was not uncontested, Microsoft bought out various JRPGs and tried hard to get Japan.  Sony also made a bunch of western focused games to target the US market I don't see why you would exclude Japan for the PS3, but not exclude the US for the 360.



Lawlight on 20 November 2013
fallen said:
bigjon said:
Last gen they overcame a year head start by the 360, a horrible 1st 18 months, and high cost (with little added value) to pass the 360. This gen. Same launch month. Cheaper console. Great start. No anomalies like the Wii to contend with (and leech casual sales and control of japan).  I mean I see no reason a person could go wrong with a XB1 purchase, but I see few reason why someone would purchase an XB1 over a PS4 (obviously the main thing is if you want to play one of their exclusives would be the main thing) Last gen the 360 got most of the mainstream gamers in NA and UK, Sony about everywhere else. I think due to the price and hype the PS4 come close to splitting these markets. I also see the PS4 dominiating Japan which last gen the Wii hurt it there alot.  I see WW the XB1 seeing slightly decreased console sales and in a twist it having a lower attach rate (seen a more of an all in one, who would buy a PS4 except to play games). I just think things could snowball a bit for Sony and being able to get a 55 to 60% market shart with the XB1 getting 30-35% and Wii U maybe 10 to 15%. That is WW. In NA and UK maybe like 40 to 45 for MS 35 to 40 for PS4 and Wii U gets the scraps.  All in all this gen I see total Console sales way down, but the PS4+XB1 will be = or > than PS3+360, of course the different is the Wii U gets 20 to 30 mil compared to over 100 mil the Wii got.

Err, actually 360 has outsold PS3 worldwide (just google for their recent respective 80 million sold announcements, Sony's was 3 weeks after Microsoft's)

 

Also, your points are valid, but do note the PS3 had an uncontested market all to itself in Japan to skew the worldwide sales (which wont change with PS4, but still makes the PS3 accomplishment of almost catching 360 come with a caveat, meaning 360 outsold PS3 to a greater degree everywhere outside Japan).

 

MS has made it difficult for themselves but it's a long generation. a simple price cut to 399 for Xbox One at any time for example would change a lot of things. They'll also have the big guns of Halo and Gears waiting in the wings. Sony has big guns of Uncharted and god of bore waiting, but imo those franchises are not as big to the mainstream (despite their popularity on forums)

It was 2 weeks, not 3 weeks. Also, that's assuming that MS didn't round when they said that they sold 0.6M in 2 weeks.