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Forums - Nintendo - Pach Attacks! Best WiiU can hope for is 20M lifetime.

Mr Khan on 13 November 2013

Gamecube level sales are the floor, unless the bottom has fallen out of the home console business altogether. Nintendo was in a stronger position moving into this generation than with the GameCube, and though the PS4 might prosper, it's dominance is nowhere near what the PS2 will have seen. Nintendo will at least get there and beyond, even in the worst case of a long, embarrassingly slow lurch to those levels.

2014's software lineup looks to be a yearlong affair, at least (unlike this year, where a few things drop in Q1 and then the console is forgotten until August), so we're going to see a turnaround.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

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softcoregamer82 on 13 November 2013
kitler53 said:
based on the current sales trajectory,.. 20M might be generous.

nintendo needs to find a really compelling peice of software if they are going to turn things around.

They did.  It's called Super Mario 3D world.  And Smash Bros. and Mario Kart 8 next year.  If none of those titles can significantly boost sales (or Zelda in 2015), then he's right that 20 million is about as good as it gets.  But I'm guessing he's wrong as per usual.



eFKac on 13 November 2013

Tagging. Love me some Pachter :*

 

Edit. I got deceived ;-] thought it's another episode of Pach Attack on GT TV.



So it is happening...PS4 preorder.

Greatness Awaits!

PeterSilenced on 13 November 2013

He could have at least waited till smash bros to say that but no...



Talal on 13 November 2013

20m is a worst case scenario imo.



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fps_d0minat0r on 13 November 2013

mans got a point, why are the nintendo fans not buying it?
likewise why are sony fans (or at the very least those with PS+) not getting the vita?

maybe people dont want consoles without support, regardless of the brand?



Mr Khan on 13 November 2013
pezus said:
A few months ago I would've called that a stupid prediction for best-case scenario but now I'd just say it should probably be what it can likely achieve or thereabouts. 30m should be the roof. But no, there is nothing to support the floor being above Gamecube sales. Actually quite the opposite, since Gamecube was doing quite a bit better at this point in time.

That's because GameCube had a much stronger 2001/2002, which petered off into 2003 and especially 2004. Wii U's equivalent year to GC's 2003 is 2014, which will be a flagship year, so Wii U will "bloom" later than the GameCube, which started hot and fizzled off into mediocrity. Wii U will run stronger further in, software-wise.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

softcoregamer82 on 13 November 2013
fps_d0minat0r said:
mans got a point, why are the nintendo fans not buying it?
likewise why are sony fans (or at the very least those with PS+) not getting the vita?

maybe people dont want consoles without support, regardless of the brand?

I think they have, and that's for the Vita and Wii U.  The problem is that neither system is getting the mainstream acceptance that the Wii and Playstation have received.  Heck, a good chunk of the public isn't even aware that the Wii U is a new system.  That's Nintendo's fault, of course, but I can't blame "Nintendo fans" however you define that group.  Pach is blaming them because he wants to troll them.



Mr Khan on 13 November 2013
pezus said:
Mr Khan said:
pezus said:
A few months ago I would've called that a stupid prediction for best-case scenario but now I'd just say it should probably be what it can likely achieve or thereabouts. 30m should be the roof. But no, there is nothing to support the floor being above Gamecube sales. Actually quite the opposite, since Gamecube was doing quite a bit better at this point in time.

That's because GameCube had a much stronger 2001/2002, which petered off into 2003 and especially 2004. Wii U's equivalent year to GC's 2003 is 2014, which will be a flagship year, so Wii U will "bloom" later than the GameCube, which started hot and fizzled off into mediocrity. Wii U will run stronger further in, software-wise.

I guess that's true. But it remains to be seen how the games will effect WiiU long-term. WiiU needs huge hits to surpass GC imo. 3D Mario won't be it. Bayonetta won't be it. Mario Kart and SSBB very well might help, but for how long?

Super Mario 3D World looks *so* much more compelling than Super Mario Sunshine. Check the sig.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

fps_d0minat0r on 13 November 2013
softcoregamer82 said:
fps_d0minat0r said:
mans got a point, why are the nintendo fans not buying it?
likewise why are sony fans (or at the very least those with PS+) not getting the vita?

maybe people dont want consoles without support, regardless of the brand?

I think they have, and that's for the Vita and Wii U.  The problem is that neither system is getting the mainstream acceptance that the Wii and Playstation have received.  Heck, a good chunk of the public isn't even aware that the Wii U is a new system.  That's Nintendo's fault, of course, but I can't blame "Nintendo fans" however you define that group.  Pach is blaming them because he wants to troll them.

you really think 4m wii U's and 6m vita's are enough in the time they have been on the market?

games are budgeted based on sales forecasts and those forecasts will never be impressive when the install base is so small.

I know its logical to think "launch the big games and watch the hardware sales go up", but sadly thats not how its done.

most third party developers will continue to be reluctant unless its a cheap port they are making, or the systems hit 10m and people start buying games. i cant argue against this because personally i havent bought a single vita game. PS+ all the way.