A decent price drop will see the PS3 easily make the mark. We need to consider the prevailing attitudes of gamers and the gaming culture not just the numbers we see on the tables. There are plenty of people with little money who will be looking for a new console; people who specifically wait for consoles to go last gen before picking them up in order to ensure they can buy a ready library of cheap games pre-owned or reduced. PS3 will still sell millions; the big question is, will it be millions bought from Sony directly or bought from the pre-owned market (as they won't be counted). If Sony can make some interesting bundles I can see them still selling well. A "Last Of Us" bundle with a price drop would certainly sell well. Also remember there are still some good exclusives coming in 2014, with 3 Tales games, Persona 5, and The Last Guardian (theoretically, I've been waiting for this game for half a damn decade), still to come. Add in Dark Souls 2 and Castlevania: Lords Of Shadow 2 (which are last-gen exclusives), and there's still plenty to get for PS3 this year. I can see Xbox/Wii/PC gamers getting a PS3 rather than a current-gen console simply because it's significantly cheaper and it has a larger library of solid exclusives than any current-gen console to date. I know at least 3 people who've done this personally, two PC gamers, and one Xbox 360 fanboy (seriously, the guy worships Halo, I'm shocked he even considered a Sony machine), who've bought PS3's just so they can play The Last Of Us, Uncharted, InFamous, and the Team Ico collection in HD. If this mentality catches on which I think it entirely likely, PS3 could conceivably end 2015 as the most sold console of the generation; after all the Wii U is backwards compatible and cheap enough at this point that I just don't see Wii sales lasting.

The adoptation of the new systems seems to go faster than expected, especially PS4. If that continues PS3 sales could fall pretty quickly, also developers could shift to the new generation faster. I have always thought 100 million to be possible but i'm starting to doubt now.

the wifi isnt even N band and those wifi cards cost dirt cheap for PC's, they probably cost sony peanuts when buying millions of them.

Same with HDD, they are already interested in buying many million HDD's for the PS4's, so adding a few million PS3 HDD's to the order will be cheap for them (especially for the 12GB SKU's).

Also, its not necessary for them to make a profit on the hardware, they are interested in the money they will get from software, including all the digital content that people wont ever see if they cant afford a PS4 (or dont think its worth buying yet).

I can see them getting 20m sales in 3 years, but I can also see them ditching the PS3 after 2 more years considering developers didnt want to use the cell processor to begin with so they wont support it as long as they supported the PS2.

I would still put my money on PS3 beating the wii.

The people buying PS4's are the people who already have PS3's (the vast majority anyway), they are irrelevant as far as PS3's future sales are concerned.

The PS3's market is now the late adopters, like casual, low income gamers and people in 3rd world countries where it is now finally becoming financially viable for them to buy one. The PS4 is unlikely to prevent them buying a PS3.

I don't agree. PS4 is pretty affordable and i think the price difference between PS3 and PS4 is small enough that a lot of people would go for a PS4. Every big PS3 game from now on will also realese on PS4, iwth the PS4 getting new exclusives. Buying a PS4 is also much more future proof.

Yes the PS3 already has a huge library off games, but if people want a PS3 for that they might aswell buy a used one.

Either way both scenarios will limit the number of new PS3's sold.

Don´t forget the everlesting promice of backwards compatibility through Gaikai.

The PS2 was not a basic system.  Just like the PS3, Sony went with a complicated CPU, the Emotion Engine.  Still, they got it to a point where they were making the whole system for less than $100.  Also, Wi-Fi adapters are pretty cheap, especially when buying them in bulk.  That's where MS got some flack at the beginning of last gen, because even Nintendo included Wi-Fi in the Wii, and they were making a profit at $250.  So, it was bascially a ploy to sell a VERY overpriced adapter.  Fortunately, they remedied that in the 360 Slim.  And I don't expect the 250GB model to hit $100 (though $150 isn't out of the question), but the 12GB SKU can definitely hit that.