lifetime will be more than 500k but i expect a slow start. many the ppl who played the last one did not like the non dlc support and if they have to have dlc will not go with the wiiu version. Also all the ppl who will buy an xbone / ps4 will most likely get ghosts for their new system because there aren't many other games for them besides battlefield 4 with watch dogs being delayd. does anyone know the preorder# for wiiu ghost?

It is hard to predict, maybe folks who buy a wii u this holiday will pick it up alongside Mario and co.
i'd say 300 k

Question!

How many copies does the wii u version need to move for activision to break even or earn a small profit?

It will do better then last year. Reasons, why its releasing the same time as other versions, larger install base and demand for online games for the Wii U. I think that 400k is a safe bet, but I'm an optimist so I put 450k+. Call of Duty is weird and hard to predict for Nintendo consoles.

no one does and that is the worrying thing, from there i ask what makes you think it will do 500k? lets assume it will be like last year's with no DLC do you still think it will do 500k? I cant see it selling 300k more than Blops2 did, yes it has a bigger install base but not that much bigger, not to add that much numbers. 

not really every entry on Wii and DS did worst than the last. Not saying that it will be the case for Wii U (doubt it actually) but COD isnt hard to predict at all.

200k

I'm surprised by all the people saying 450k+.  I wouldn't be shocked if it actually sold less than what BO2 sold.  Reasons for this:

• The audience was more receptive to buying games at launch compared to now where seemingly only Nintendo's major IPs sell
• The install base really isn't much larger
• Bad blood from Black Ops II not including DLC, plus no DLC for Ghosts
• Wii U is dying in Europe.  Less retailers are carrying Wii U products, meaning less people have access to purchase them
• PS4 and XBO are releasing.  This gives two problems for the Wii U version:

                      1.  More avenues to purchase the game, meaning sales will be spread out across all versions moreso than before.

                      2.  Other next-gen systems will demand retail shelf space, meaning Wii U will either be relegated to a less than ideal

                            location in stores, or it will lose retail shelf space.  Either way, there will be less of a chance for customers to see

                            and purchase the Wii U version.

• I have a hard time seeing Ghosts really grow the franchise.  I feel it has already hit its peak (Of course, I thought that was already the case before)

I don't know exactly what Black Ops II sold, but I know it was nowhere near 450k.  I'll say 150-200k with the majority of that being in the US.