@Coglestop: Really? I did not know that. Still, they can't exactly rely on their Hanafuda cards to make up any losses in their gaming business, now can they?

Sony and Nintendo aren't going anywhere. Their brands are too deep into the system, and not fading, it would be suicide to just leave. Would be silly.

MS on the other hand is not in that same position and would probably leave eventually.

Replacement to MS? Apple, Square Enix, or possibly even EA. I really don't know. It'll probably not be a 3rd party because the hardware thing is just too much of a problem to deal with, not to mention it limits your profits when you can put it on everything.

Of the three companies at it now, Sony is currently the most likely to exit the market, and probably not for a generation or two. Nintendo's profits from consoles are too great and their strategies too effective for them to exit... well, ever, really. Microsoft was stubborn enough to release the 360 even though the XBOX lost them money, so they're going to stick to it at least until they make an overall profit (or take a huge loss). Sony, on the other hand, is at the other end of that: they've made a big profit and are now seeing heavy losses (heavier than ever before, even). Should the PS3 continue to be largely unprofitable, their stockholders will most likely demand an exeunt from the market within a generation of consoles.

As for who might enter the industry, anybody with a fair amount of money begging to be invested in video game systems is fair game at this point. Nobody thought Microsoft would enter, being the giants of PC software (and not especially noted for games), but they did. There actually is a strike against Apple entering the industry that very few people know about any more: the Apple Pippin. It did so poorly that it stands as the world's worst-selling video game system ever; most people haven't even heard of it. People at large may not remember it, but I doubt Apple's forgotten the sting of defeat it carried for them entirely.

Well, if any left, Microsoft would be the logical choice since they really don't have a long history of making hardware and they can only seem to sell their units in NA and UK.

What is more likely to occur is Sony and Microsoft battle for home entertainment center and only one wins ... and the loser exits.

Nintendo is playing a different game and survives and thrives.

About the only company that might consider entering is Apple. It has explored doing things with the iPhone(tm). But it might be too high-end to be mainstream. It could try to compete against the PSP for handheld media center though. (Again, Nintendo, playing a different game, survives and thrives).

It is doubtful any other company -- electronics or computer -- would want to enter the market because the risk/reward ratio is too high (high risk for low reward).

And as for the one console standard ... that will not come to pass. It already was tried with the 3D0 and that worked out well. We can't even get a standard PC standard for games. That's the nice thing about consoles, you buy the game and put it in and it WORKS. As consoles move away from that, they will start having more trouble.

Mike from Morgantown

i guess sega will return with some kind of sucky console and all the current companies will remain for at least 15 years

Wait, I'm completely lost. Why would Nintendo merge with Sony if they're dominating both fronts? And why would any of them agree on a single console? Last time I checked, Jaffe didn't control the industry.

Apple with IPlay

Sony will leave, in a fashion, next generation. Not entirely, but their system won't be marketed primarily as a videogame console anymore. The Playstation will eventually turn into a competitor for the Mac and PC.

Microsoft will be the first to abandon the home console business (this will be particularly because the Playstation 4 will be greatly threatening their desktop space... exactly what Microsoft has been trying to keep Sony from doing, with their Xbox).

Apple will move into the handheld scene, effectively pushing Sony out of it, but still not managing to move Nintendo out of first.

Phillips will re-enter the home console scene.

Wow. Judging by your predictions, you are actually serious. Nintendo is not a fad, the company has been making games since the mid-70s. The DS and Wii are also not fads, as they have sustained high sales for very long times and are not only the industry standards but are leading both sony and microsoft consoles in nearly every country in the world. Perhaps you should put some thoughts into your posts before writing something ridiculous again.

no one's leaving.