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Sony and Nintendo aren't going anywhere. Their brands are too deep into the system, and not fading, it would be suicide to just leave. Would be silly.

MS on the other hand is not in that same position and would probably leave eventually.

Replacement to MS? Apple, Square Enix, or possibly even EA. I really don't know. It'll probably not be a 3rd party because the hardware thing is just too much of a problem to deal with, not to mention it limits your profits when you can put it on everything.