Will Wii hit 3 million sold in Japan before PS3 hits 1 million sold?

Currently Wii is over 2.2 million in Japan, while PS3 is at 889,000.

Given sales of 80,000 vs. 11,000 per week, for 10 weeks, they would reach the respective milestones at the same time.  However, for the next ten weeks I think sales will be within the following ranges:

Wii - 63,000 to 87,000 for the next ten weeks (Golden Week, DQ Swords in July) .

PS3 - 8,500 to 28,500 for the next ten weeks (Ninja Gaiden is in June right?, if not more like 8.5 k to 14k).

I'm guessing an average of 9,000 for PS3 and 72,000 for Wii, putting Wii at 3 million within 11 weeks, while PS3 will reach 1 million in 12 weeks.  We'll know in about 3 months which milestone happened first.

Ninja Gaiden is released June 14th.  Should give PS3 a little boost, but little boosts every couple months isn't going to get it done.  They need a constant stream of games.  Last PS3 release: March 31st.  Next PS3 release: June 14th.  that's 2 and a half months.

I basically agree with your predictions because there is no new game for 7+ weeks, and sales will fall below 10k. 

Surely there are PS3 releases - just not big games? They can't seriously have a gap in their schedule where ZERO titles are coming out? Didn't Sony's schedule have 20-30 games over the next quarter?

There are games being released I dunno what you're talkin' about.......

Actually, Wii is at almost 2.3M already, so it only needs to sell just over 700k to get to 3M. With the higher production Nintendo has promised I think they should be able to at least reach the 70-80k level on a weekly basis, so if we include some higher sales for Golden Week it should take them somewhere between 8 and 10 weeks. I don't think PS3 will drop to an average of 9k a week, it's still selling about 20 to 30% above that level so far. Going for about 10-11k average weekly sales and then adding Golden Week, Ninja Gaiden and any other positive news released which could increase sales I think it will also take them 8-10 weeks to reach 1M. So I think it will be very close and even possible they will reach the milestones at the same week.

ckmlb --> there aren't any BIG games released in JAPAN during that timeframe.

From IGN.com here is the Japaneese game release schedule for the PS3 ... This is probably not accurate much past June because more games will be announced at E3 (June) and TGS (September).

date	game title	publisher	genre
June 14,2007	Ninja Gaiden Sigma [JA]	Tecmo	Action
June 30,2007	EyeCreate [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Productivity
July 05,2007	Boku no Natsu Yasumi 3: Summer Holidays 20th Century [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Adventure
July 31,2007	Hot Shots Golf 5 [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Sports Action
September 30,2007	Home [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Productivity
December 30,2007	Beautiful Katamari [JA]	Namco Bandai	Action
December 30,2007	Devil May Cry 4 [JA]	Capcom	Action
December 31,2007	Afrika [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Action
December 31,2007	Bladestorm: The Hundred Years' War [JA]	KOEI	Strategy
December 31,2007	Castlevania PS3 [JA]	Konami	Action Adventure
December 31,2007	Fatal Frame PS3 [JA]	Tecmo	Adventure
December 31,2007	Fatal Inertia [JA]	KOEI	Racing Action
December 31,2007	Folks Soul: The Lost Folklore [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Adventure
December 31,2007	Goodnavigate Mystery Adventure [Working Title] [JA]	Goodnavigate	Adventure
December 31,2007	Gradius PS3 [JA]	Konami	Shooter
December 31,2007	Jikkyou Pawafuru Puro Yakyuu PS3 [JA]	Konami	Sports Action
December 31,2007	Konami PS3 Action Project [untitled] [JA]	Konami	Action
December 31,2007	Konami PS3 RPG [untitled] [JA]	Konami	RPG
December 31,2007	Marionette PS3 War Simulation [untitled] [JA]	Marionette	Simulation
December 31,2007	Martial Art [JA]	D3 Publisher	Action
December 31,2007	Monster Hunter 3 [JA]	Capcom	Action
December 31,2007	Ni-Oh [JA]	KOEI	Action
TBA 2007	Romance of the Three Kingdoms PS3 [JA]	KOEI	Strategy
December 31,2007	Soulcalibur IV [Untitled] [JA]	Namco Bandai	Fighting
December 31,2007	Square Enix Next-Gen MMORPG [untitled] [JA]	Square Enix	RPG
December 31,2007	Team Siren Project [Untitled] [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Adventure
December 31,2007	tri-Crescendo PS3 Project [untitled] [JA]	*TBA	RPG
December 31,2007	Way of the Samurai 3 [JA]	Spike	Action Adventure
December 31,2007	White Knight Story [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	RPG
December 31,2007	Winning Eleven: Pro Evolution Soccer PS3 [untitled] [JA]	Konami	Sports
March 31,2008	Gran Turismo 5 [JA]	Sony Computer Entertainment	Racing
December 31,2008	Final Fantasy Versus XIII [JA]	Square Enix	Action RPG
December 31,2008	Final Fantasy XIII [JA]	Square Enix	Action RPG
December 31,2008	Resident Evil 5 [JA]	Capcom	Action

From the looks of it, over the next 10 weeks there is really very few games released and we could see the PS3 weekly sales numbers drop below 10,000 (or even 5,000) units per week. I'm leaving the Wii release list off (mainly to prevent scrolling) but the releases for the Wii are far steadier and interest in the Wii should remain high; I suspect the Wii will sell nearly as many systems as they can produce.

I would say the Wii will pass 3 Million before the PS3 passes 1 Million by a couple of weeks.

I just checked sales numbers for the original Ninja Gaiden in Japan. And although it did around 45k units in its first week, which must be very impressive for an XBox title, XBox sales where only around 700-800 units for that week. So I doubt Ninja Gaiden will be able to move a significant amount of PS3s. Seems like one less reason to see PS3 reaching 1M before Wii reaching 3M. Btw, Wii is still trailing PS2 if you allign both launches, but its weekly sales did fall down to around 60k by this time and in 5 weeks it will drop down to around 40k and below, so Wii could actually start to catch up with PS2 sales soon.

That can't be all the PS3 games in 2007... can it???

Is it just me or is the Golden Week over hyped? I am looking at the lifetime sales for PS2, and assuming the Golden Week falls roughly the same time every year then it doesn't seem to have that large of an impact. It's no Christmas.