Keep in mind that not all preorders are guaranteed sales week 1. If you check Amazon's website for instance, it indicates that it may not arrive day 1.
Anyway, 1.5-2.0 seems reasonable for week 1. It really depends on what the inventory is like.
I'd say 3-3.5 million first year. Again it also depends on the supply, so it's hard to guess.
For 2014, I'd go with about 8 million. The PS4's sales are going to be a lot more front-loaded than the XBox 360 or PS3 because of how effectively companies like Gamestop have built up the idea of preordering. Assuming Sony does a good job at making enough PS4's for the holiday, there will be a bit of a slump in 2014.
















