johnlucas said:
Seece said: Never seen somebody talk so much and yet all the while saying, essentially, nothing.
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Seece, the man that won't desist.
This reply is dedicated to my man Seece. All the references to me in his replies to others. The least I can do is respond. Point-by-point rebuttal follows. Links to direct post ahead of each reply.
I will offer bitesize replies because it's unneccessery to churn out an essay 0_o
Seece's reply to Incubi in reference to the "saying, essentially, nothing" remark. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5665194
Seece said:
Incubi said: Are you not entertained? |
I would be if I knew he was 100% serious (as long as I saw the reaction after the holidays too)
Alas it's all too crazy for me to believe he's serious :(
He's not coming up with any solid reasoning, just a bunch of mumbo jumbo that has nothing to do with anything.
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Hahahahahaha! Mumbo jumbo. So dismissive. Seece, I'm VERY serious about what I have said here. I mean each & every word. And you may not appreciate my reasoning but it IS solid. I back up everything I say if not with a source then with a logical argument. But you should be entertained, Seece. Throughout it all, I like to keep it fun.
No it isn't, I can't actually pinpoint any reasoning and what the hell has sources got to do with anything, stop living in the past like it's gonna tell you the future.
Seece's brief reply to me as I talk with RedPikmin95 about Nintendo not intending Wii to be a "casual console". http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5665406
Seece said:
johnlucas said:
Thank God Nintendo resists this crap!! And with Wii U they will put an end to this garbage. Wii U restores what was seen in that video that showed the Revolution's weapon, the Wiimote. The Console for All Audiences, All Backgrounds, All Skill Levels. Wii U. Wii UNITED. Reunited. John Lucas
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Except no, the vast majority of PS360 won't settle or want what WiiU has to offer, how is this so difficult to grasp?
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How do you know this? In the late 1980s/early 1990s, did the vast majority of NES owners want or settle for what the Sega Genesis had to offer? Did they all stick with Nintendo for the SNES? In the mid 1990s, did the vast majority of those who wanted & settled for the Sega Genesis want or to settle for what the Sony PlayStation had to offer? In the mid 2000s, did all those who wanted & settled for both the Sony PlayStation 1 & 2 want or settle for what the Microsoft XBox 360 had to offer? More importantly how about the Nintendo Wii? Did they want or settle for what Wii had to offer?
A) It was a very different landscape back then with fewer competitors. B) Even then no Nintendo system except Wii has ever done incredibly numbers. C) I don't even see your point here anyhow, why don't you type that out instead?
You're too caught up in NOW. You can only see how things are NOW & think that's how they will always be. I can see you in 2011: "It has been a year now. The 3DS is a failure. It is not keeping pace with the DS with launches aligned. People are waiting it out for the Vita and are not willing to settle on last-gen ports & remakes." You couldn't fathom a turnaround because at that present moment it had not reached that point.
Nope, 3DS always had Pokemon coming, and I was never even vocal about the platform because I don't care about handhelds. I really need to stress though, that despite a significant price cut and games, the 3DS is still VERY underwhelming in the US and especially Europe, it didn't take THAT intervention to get the DS going. Yes 3DS will do very well this holiday with Pokemon and the Japanese supporting it, but it still isn't at DS level and despite how it does over the holiday, it won't be continuing the DS level momentum into the new year (if it gets that at all).
Despite tablets and phones burning dedicated gaming handheld shares I still believe there is a market for them, but this is a market Nintendo has always dominated, so using it as an example is weak and you know. You're comparing Xbox One and PS4 to Vita, do me a favour.
In 2004, you couldn't see any chance for Microsoft or Nintendo to challenge to the home console dominance of Sony & the PS2. In 2004, you probably thought Nintendo was done for & would end up like Sega.
Wasn't even into talking about Videogames at that age, wasn't even aware of the industry much tbh! The very big difference there however is that that was BEFORE the systems launched, WiiU has been out for 10 months now and it's failing. Would many have said WiiU would have failed this bad prior launch. I don't think so.
In 2013, you think the tandem of PlayStation & XBox (7th gen's PS360) will remain intact in the incoming generation.
Every generation is different & things play out differently. The incumbent champion CAN go on to win another round but things happen differently than last gen. I'm preparing you for the reality that this unofficial double platform cannot & will not survive in the 8th gen. And once one of them drops, it changes the interactions between the 3rd party & Nintendo because the 3rd party will be faced with survival. They depend on that PS360 combination to make sales. But if there's no PX4One combo, how are they gonna make their money back selling on just one platform? It is at THAT time that they'll make the decision to put games on Wii U & gamers will follow because they go where their games go. Now how is this so difficult to grasp?
Your reasoning here is a complete and utter joke. Stop talking crap about champions. Your reasoning (is there actually any reasoning?) Xbox One and PS4 won't survive is weak and simply won't happen, they have strong first party support, strong third party support but most importantly that market is in tact, unlike the audience for the Wii that has largely dissipated elsewhere.
It's all just a fantasy in your head, that's what it reads like.
First Seece's point-by-point rebuttal to nin10do's predictions. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5666221
Seece said:
nin10do said: I hope you guys don't mind me making predictions of my own. By March 31st, 2014. Xbox One: 2.5-3 Million Units Sold Playstation 4: 2-2.5 Million Units Sold Wii U: 11-12 Million Units Sold
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Predictions are crazy laughable especially with the slate of games both consoles have (Titanfall in March for Xbox One) You're expecting weaker sell through for both compared to WiiU, despite the fact the hyper and interest for both are ten fold of that WiiU had.
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XBox One & PlayStation 4 will most likely have good launches. But don't get too caught up in launch fever. I already talked about Sega Dreamcast's excellent launch in this thread. And remember that people were getting shot in the streets & robbed at gunpoint for Sony's PS3. It would be fair to say interest was high for that console too. But what happened in the aftermath? What happened once launch fever wore off? Pyramids of PS3s stacked in the aisles of stores.
Dreamcast launched before PS2. PS3? Went on to be very successful and will outsell Wii lifetime, it has had a far more sustainable lifespan to boot, that's what happened. Xbox One and PS4 will offer PS360 owners what they want, you can't grasp this or refuse too.
I can tell that you're gonna be constantly surprised at Wii U's turnaround in the near future. You don't seem to have vision for the future. Too caught up in the present. Just remember that I told you it would happen. You heard it here first.
I'm not because it isn't going to happen, I predict anywhere from 3.5 - 5.5m WiiU's this holiday, but I would say 2m~ in the US, 1m in Europe and Japan ... I have no idea, it's a wildcard and even Wii only sold 13m there lifetime.
Seece said:
nin10do said: Now those are just sales predictions. Now let me say something else, another prediction. PS4/XBO and the most underwhelming consoles I've seen, in terms of what's actually offered, which is nothing the previous consoles aren't offering.
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Like I said above given the hyper/interest, a lot of people don't agree with you. You're also not looking very hard. They both offer graphical improvements, much better online functionality and system OS enhancements and both have more immersive controller inputs than what PS360 launched with.
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Ha! Graphical improvements. Graphics don't mean nothing anymore, Seece. I have posted the Killzone comparison umpteen times in this thread. The jump ain't there. The leap ain't there. Both have more immersive controller inputs??? HAHAHAHAHA!!! You mean Sony with that SAME SNES/N64 derivative called the DualShock? The exact same it has been for the past 20 years only this time it has a little screen on the front? Microsoft's XBox One controller looks virtually the same as the XBox 360 controller. All that's different is the specialized Rumble called Impulse Triggers. And the battery pack is more flush inside the controller body. System OS enhancements? What? Hahahahahaha. Much better online functionality? More servers, eh. Hmm. All I can say Seece is prepare to be surprised at the 8th gen's outcome. You're probably not gonna like it but we tried to prepare you for it.
Yes, all you can do is laugh because you clearly don't have a clue what each offer (have you even done your homework on these systems? tsktsk)
MS and Sony are improving on stuff gamers like and want, not throwing stuff at a wall and hoping it sticks (Gamepad).
Seece said:
nin10do said: Nintendo is irrelevant now, sure. Come Holiday and Kart, when people outside of the core and the fanboys start buying the system, that's when it will become apparent. MS, Sony, and the media have tried hard at pushing Nintendo into a corner and making them seem irrelevant after the success of the Wii, but when it comes down to it, and people start getting their hands on this thing, it's going to explode.
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You realise Nintendo have already had one holiday right? It's funny how the Wii didn't need a 10 month buffer to get going isn't it? Why exactly is it going to explode? What is it going to offer to the masses which it hasn't for the last 10 months? How exactly are they going to get their hands on it when people aren't buying it? ....
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The Nintendo 3DS launched in Japan on February 26, 2011 & March 11, 2011 in North America well ahead of the 2011 holiday season. After a pretty good launch (that didn't quite match Nintendo's sales goals), 3DS went into Slumpsville. It was so bad Nintendo made the biggest price drop in recent memory to jumpstart the system & it STILL didn't really help. But once Nintendo unloaded their bounty of varied games & trusted franchise players, sales rebounded magically overnight & Nintendo had a pretty good holiday season worldwide. Next year at 2012's holiday season, 3DS didn't just do "pretty good" it did FANTASTIC around the world. And in 2013's holiday season, it will do even better than that. The Fall and Rise of Nintendo's 3DS
DS set the tone for Wii. 3DS sets the tone for Wii U. Wii U had great sales at launch putting it right in league with Wii's figures for opening November & December combined. And just like 3DS it will rebound for its 2nd holiday season then get even stronger for its next then DOMINATE the next.
Every generation's different. NES dominated the 3rd gen with no chance of challenge. SNES had to fight for its food against the strong challenger Sega Genesis/Mega Drive in the 4th gen. PS1 & PS2 dominated their competition on the sales charts in the 5th & 6th gens. PS3 WAS dominated by their competition in the 7th gen. So Wii U will not begin like Wii but Wii U will end better than Wii did. Whether you believe it or not, watch what I say. Your clue to Wii U's progress is the 3DS. That's your sign.
Seece said:
nin10do said: This is a system that takes playing to understand and in the midst of silence, post e3 and all this, I've been keeping an ear out and I've noticed, attention is starting to garner with the Wii U.
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Really? Because despite Pikmin releasing it just posted sales on par with its lowest ever in the US, and that is its best market. So that's completely anecdotal on your part and evidently isn't what is actually happening.
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Summertime. The summertime slump. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D came out for the suddenly struggling 3DS in June of 2011. That Zelda didn't change the fortunes for the 3DS either & about a month later Nintendo did the $80 price cut. Pikmin releases in August that summertime period. Outside of phenomenal-sellers like Wii in its first few years, most consoles usually take a dip in the summertime. Handhelds seem to jump in June as kids are getting gifts for graduating their grade or to give them something to do on the summer road trip. But for the most part all consoles do weaker in the summer.
Once the 3DS picked up by the holidays though that Zelda assisted in its selling power. The same will go for Pikmin this holiday season. It all builds up & then explodes. The pressure principle. Nintendo adding to the pressure of Wii U by unloading a mass of killer games to lock down the holidays. He is right. Buzz IS building. And judging from my co-worker who was once all about Vita & now has bought a 3DS, buzz for 3DS is getting higher too. Expect big Nintendo explosions on the charts this holiday season as Iwata makes good on his ¥100 billion/$ 1 billion profit call for fiscal 2013.
Seece said:
nin10do said: People are starting to get curious about it. What will happen when Nintendo does another Nintendo Experience event with Super Mario 3D World and Kart and people see their old time favorites in HD with this amazing new system that does so much more, when the other two don't do much of anything new.
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The same as when they first announced them? Pretty much nothing?
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I can't wait to see your face when the sales come out. Simultaneous 4-player in a 3D Mario game has never been done before.It will be a MAJOR hit. Mario Kart is a phenomenon on its own. A Miiverse-empowered Mario Kart will make it even more so. Wow. It's gonna be sweet to see your reaction. The wait is killing me!
Seece said:
nin10do said: This is after those 11-12 million sales, because once people have the box in their home, and maybe some having the other boxes as well, they'll be underwhelmed by the difference in the PS4/XBO. I predict they will become irrelevant and by this time next year, when Smash is out or about to be out, the notion of getting a PS4 or XBO will be ridiculous, even for the core gamers that were all up and excited at the Sony presser. That was me at first, I shouted into the air with that DRM stuff and proclaimed myself a Sony gamer. Then the dust settled and I asked myself, "why?" Then I looked into the Wii U which was honestly off my radar at the time, once I saw it, and what it could do, I became a believer.
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The difference is already striking, and yet again people thinking all Sony and Microsoft offer on the table is graphics, tsk tsk. Your comment about them becoming irrelevant is just embarrassing. You can't actually be serious. Yes all those God of War, Halo, GTA, ect fans are simply going to upsticks and jump on board WiiU because of Smash, because that's totally what they did last gen isn't, and the one before that ...
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That IS all Sony & Microsoft offer. They have not added anything useful to the gameplay experience that Nintendo hasn't already done. Yep all those God of War, Halo, GTA folks will jump on board Wii U. That's right. But not just because of Smash. There's gonna be a host of games that will be too compelling for them to turn down despite the 3rd party's best efforts to sabotage this console. Throughout the 8th gen Wii U will be siphoning off Sony's & Microsoft's fanbase.
I personally know a serious Sega fan who went to Microsoft after Sega fell out of the console business. He's BIG into XBox 360 & is all about Xbox One. But in his house is a Wii U bought at launch. And he plays it along with his son. He was always a non-Nintendo man. Not necessarily that he hates them but he liked Sega more.
The Sony & Microsoft fans don't have to buy Wii U as their primary console, no. In fact it will be BETTER that Wii U is thought of as the secondary console because just like Wii that will ensure it gets into more homes than just being the primary one. So you take all the folks (like me) who will make Wii U their one & only—their primary console, then take all the XOne & PS4 folks who make Wii U their junior—their secondary console, and you have a DOMINANT console overall. It's all about selling games & selling consoles to play them. And making a profit in the process while influencing the future of the videogame world. Wii U is best poised to do this & you will see this within the next 15 months.
Seece said:
nin10do said: As such, I've been buying stocks and I will be buying more in these days before the price drop hits, and especially before Pokemon hits. I don't know where the market will be 2 years from now, but I do know that the next year will be a good year for Nintendo.
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You don't know that you're just guessing.
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nin10do puts his money where his mouth is. Money don't grow on trees & I don't think a guy who admitted elsewhere in this thread that he was once all gungho about the PS4 (after the E3 XBox One fiasco) is foolishly frittering his money away. He saw something that has his confidence in the company up. He sees what I see & he's making sure that he will benefit from the rise. Good stock market players defy conventional wisdom. The crowd usually doesn't have foresight. Individuals do. The crowd then follows the individual who led the way. The crowd is more caught up in the safety of numbers so by design they cannot step out on a limb. They will not go against the group because they need the comfort of those numbers. The individual can go it alone & work independently of the crowd & will see things no one else sees. They don't need the crowd for validation. That's why inventions usually come from one person instead of a group of people.
Nintendo certainly functions in an individualistic fashion. They don't follow the crowd & often DEFY the crowd. When everybody goes right, here's Nintendo going left. When everybody goes right again, here's Nintendo going forward. They leave the X-axis & go straight to the Z-axis! Not just the opposite direction on the same dimension but a totally different direction on a whole 'nother dimension!
nin10do's not guessing. nin10do knows. And nin10do will laugh once the crowd catches up to what he sees & I see... ...with his stacks of cash from strengthening Nintendo stock.
Seece said:
nin10do said: P.S; it's not underpowered, it's more powerful than it seems but again, I'll get to that soon. I will say this, PS4 and XBO aren't getting better than what we'll see at launch. The reason things get progressively better with most consoles is that they use custom hardware which is hard to develop for and they don't know how to use the hardware and it takes time to develop special tools for them. That's not the case anymore with those two. They have no barrier for entry so what we see now is what we get from them. What we see from Wii U now, is only the beginning.
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It is what it is, fact of the matter is though that third parties are not interested and there is still a significant gap between WiiU and PS4ONE. Also you're completely wrong on the last part.
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3rd parties are playing games as always. Political games, that is. They will be broken & humbled this generation. They can't help but to be interested once their vehicle crashes. That vehicle known in the 7th gen as the PS360 combination. PX4One won't sustain. They can't depend on the dual platforms of Sony & Microsoft this generation. One or both will drop this gen. And they will come crawling to the Wii U sooner or later. The easy way or the hard way.
nin10do has shared with me in private messages the hidden hardware potential of Wii U. I'm impressed by it but I'm more impressed by Nintendo's software potential. This foolishness about significant gaps. The PS2 had a significant gap versus the GC & XB. But that didn't stop it from becoming the best-selling home console of all time, did it? Based on nin10do's private messages, I'm inclined to believe him on that last part. The big shock this generation will be how One & PS4 don't look significantly better than 360 & PS3. I'm just waiting for the shoe to drop.
Then from same post, Seece's after-remarks to nin10do. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5666221
Seece said:
Thoughts in bold - Overall this reads like a pipe dream and a wishlist. At least you offer some (all be it ridiculous) reasoning, unlike JohnLucas who is talking nonsense and offering nothing.
It amazes me how you guys are defying logic here, in actual fact after reading what you guys have said I can't believe either of you are serious :P
Nintendo will do well with their core base this holiday, but outside of that nobody is interested. The casuals noticed the Wii from the start, and they didn't buy in because of Zelda and Donkey Kong (are you frigging kidding me?) they bought it because it was accessible, fresh and the IT product of its time. It's laughable you just expect this thing to be a mega hit out of the blue because of Nintendo franchises (that never even pushed the Wii to the masses, that was Wiifit, Wii Sports ect)
As for gamers overall abandoning Sony and Microsoft, that's a joke in itself it too many ways to count. PS4 and One offer them more or less exactly what they wanted from PS360, whilst WiiU offers them the same as what the Wii did, how and why do you expect them to give up all those franchises to play Nintendo and Ubisoft games??? No Halo, God of War, Forza, Gran Turismo, Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Division, Destiny, Titanfall, Fable, LBP, Killzone, Uncharted ect ect ect .....
I'll be back in January to see what you guys make of the holiday sales (which will disappoint you)
Even a significant price drop and games for the 3DS never pushed it hard in the US 540k in November 2012 and 1.2m in December. On the back of an $80 price cut and a slew of games, all whilst selling on average 4 times better monthly than WiiU before its price cut. Sales continue to disappoint there, (yes they will pick up with Pokemon).
WiiU has to sell 6m+ for these insane predictions to come true by the end of the year, when US is its strongest market, and the drastic 3DS intervention failed to give it more than 1.6m in the US in the holiday season, why are you guys expecting something like 3m+ in the US this holiday? Probably more, given Europe is Nintendos weakest market (by a margin) right now and home consoles never do millions over the holiday period in Japan.
Lucas your prediction is even more ludicrus, 12m by end of the year, that's 8m+ ...
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You still believe in this "casual" bull, don't you? The casuals. The casuals. You don't realize that you're just spewing marketer talk, right? No such thing as casuals. No such thing as hardcores. I have explained that point many times in this thread.
You seem like the kind of guy who wouldn't think the Titanic could ever sink. Who wouldn't think Three Mile Island would have a nuclear meltdown. Who wouldn't think Atari could ever be dethroned from the videogame kingdom. Who wouldn't think Apple could ever dethrone Sony from the portable music world. Who wouldn't think tablets could be a threat to laptops on the retail shelves.
It seems you're the type who has to see it believe it. Fair enough. You're underestimating Japan HEAVILY but that's OK. With Sony putting itself out of the picture ENTIRELY in Japan for the PS4, Nintendo has a chance to clamp down the Japanese market all to itself much like Sony did to its Japanese competition in the 6th gen with the PS2. Vita ain't a threat & probably will never become one at this point. So Nintendo will have the hot 3DS droppin' bombs AND the Wii U droppin' hammers. They get to do this uncontested in Japan since both the PS4 AND XOne won't even show up until 2014. They do this against the tide of the near-simultaneous launches of the XOne & PS4 in America & Europe. Both Wii U & ESPECIALLY 3DS pick up the prospectors who didn't jump in last holiday season but have been curious about the consoles.
Critical mass is coming & I can't wait. They're about to get off the fence, Seece. The headlines will be endless about 3DS's domination & Wii U's turnaround. You'll just have to see it to believe it.
Seece's reply to Incubi about my ability to inspire people to join VGChartz & words from some random analyst guy. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5666358
Seece said:
Incubi said:
The real power of John Lucas is to inspire people to actually make VGChartz accounts so they can post in this thread;)
Michael Pachter, the infamous analyst of Wedbush have predicted WiiU to reach 8,5 mill by this calendar year, despite its awful 1st quarter sales. At the same time, he predicted 3DS sales to be ridiculous this holiday. Either way, Nintendo as a whole will be fine. What happens in 2014? God knows.
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Yeah I agree, Ninty will be fine. Pachter predicted 8.5m? That's actually a solid prediction! If a little high.
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Even wrong-way Pachter knows. He NEVER hardly gets it right but even HE knows Nintendo will be strong this holiday season. You're gonna trust a guy like that over a guy like me?? Hahahahahahahaha!
Pachter.
Deep down even you know that Nintendo will be alright this holiday season despite your arguments on this thread.
Nope, not really. I'm expecting the average of 4.5m to be OK for them, not a turnaround because it's fueled by the holidays. If they sell 6m+ then it's a turn around. But more importantly if they sustain that.
Fact is PS3 never topped 2m in Nov + Dec NPD, I can't envisage a world in which WiiU does that, the casuals are just not on board with this system.
But 2013 is just the beginning. 2014 will REALLY show you what Nintendo is all about. Satoru Iwata was COMMITTED to ¥100 billion in profits for the 2013 fiscal year. That's roughly $1 billion American. You don't hear Iwata making such bold claims if he couldn't back it up. He knows & I know Nintendo will have an EXCELLENT 2013 & the past 2 years of annual losses will soon become a distant memory, a bad dream. From this point forward, NINTENDOMINATION will be at hand once again. And it will overshadow last generation's NINTENDOMINATION when the history books are done being written.
Nintendo don't know anything, they've missed their console forecasts for Wii and WiiU for 5 straight running years, it's become a running joke now, they've even downgraded their forecasts for Wii 3 times in one year and still didn't hit it. What has Nintendo hitting $1b got to do with anything? 3DS + Pokemon can ensure that, it has nothing to do with WiiU being a hit.
3DS is your clue to the success of the Wii U. Remember this.
3DS is still, a very mild hit in the west. 130k in US this move, weak. DS was doing 600k at this point and without a 600k price cut, why don't you stop being so selective with your history lessons Lucas.
John Lucas
P.S.: Yes I'm serious.
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