Seece said: Never seen somebody talk so much and yet all the while saying, essentially, nothing.
Seece, the man that won't desist.
This reply is dedicated to my man Seece. All the references to me in his replies to others. The least I can do is respond. Point-by-point rebuttal follows. Links to direct post ahead of each reply.
I would be if I knew he was 100% serious (as long as I saw the reaction after the holidays too)
Alas it's all too crazy for me to believe he's serious :(
He's not coming up with any solid reasoning, just a bunch of mumbo jumbo that has nothing to do with anything.
Hahahahahaha! Mumbo jumbo. So dismissive. Seece, I'm VERY serious about what I have said here. I mean each & every word. And you may not appreciate my reasoning but it IS solid. I back up everything I say if not with a source then with a logical argument. But you should be entertained, Seece. Throughout it all, I like to keep it fun.
Thank God Nintendo resists this crap!! And with Wii U they will put an end to this garbage. Wii U restores what was seen in that video that showed the Revolution's weapon, the Wiimote. The Console for All Audiences, All Backgrounds, All Skill Levels. Wii U. Wii UNITED. Reunited. John Lucas
Except no, the vast majority of PS360 won't settle or want what WiiU has to offer, how is this so difficult to grasp?
How do you know this? In the late 1980s/early 1990s, did the vast majority of NES owners want or settle for what the Sega Genesis had to offer? Did they all stick with Nintendo for the SNES? In the mid 1990s, did the vast majority of those who wanted & settled for the Sega Genesis want or to settle for what the Sony PlayStation had to offer? In the mid 2000s, did all those who wanted & settled for both the Sony PlayStation 1 & 2 want or settle for what the Microsoft XBox 360 had to offer? More importantly how about the Nintendo Wii? Did they want or settle for what Wii had to offer?
You're too caught up in NOW. You can only see how things are NOW & think that's how they will always be. I can see you in 2011: "It has been a year now. The 3DS is a failure. It is not keeping pace with the DS with launches aligned. People are waiting it out for the Vita and are not willing to settle on last-gen ports & remakes." You couldn't fathom a turnaround because at that present moment it had not reached that point. In 2004, you couldn't see any chance for Microsoft or Nintendo to challenge to the home console dominance of Sony & the PS2. In 2004, you probably thought Nintendo was done for & would end up like Sega. In 2013, you think the tandem of PlayStation & XBox (7th gen's PS360) will remain intact in the incoming generation.
Every generation is different & things play out differently. The incumbent champion CAN go on to win another round but things happen differently than last gen. I'm preparing you for the reality that this unofficial double platform cannot & will not survive in the 8th gen. And once one of them drops, it changes the interactions between the 3rd party & Nintendo because the 3rd party will be faced with survival. They depend on that PS360 combination to make sales. But if there's no PX4One combo, how are they gonna make their money back selling on just one platform? It is at THAT time that they'll make the decision to put games on Wii U & gamers will follow because they go where their games go. Now how is this so difficult to grasp?
nin10do said: I hope you guys don't mind me making predictions of my own.
By March 31st, 2014.
Xbox One: 2.5-3 Million Units Sold Playstation 4: 2-2.5 Million Units Sold Wii U: 11-12 Million Units Sold
Predictions are crazy laughable especially with the slate of games both consoles have (Titanfall in March for Xbox One)You're expecting weaker sell through for both compared to WiiU, despite the fact the hyper and interest for both are ten fold of that WiiU had.
XBox One & PlayStation 4 will most likely have good launches. But don't get too caught up in launch fever. I already talked about Sega Dreamcast's excellent launch in this thread. And remember that people were getting shot in the streets & robbed at gunpoint for Sony's PS3. It would be fair to say interest was high for that console too. But what happened in the aftermath? What happened once launch fever wore off? Pyramids of PS3s stacked in the aisles of stores.
I can tell that you're gonna be constantly surprised at Wii U's turnaround in the near future. You don't seem to have vision for the future. Too caught up in the present. Just remember that I told you it would happen. You heard it here first.
Seece said:
nin10do said: Now those are just sales predictions. Now let me say something else, another prediction. PS4/XBO and the most underwhelming consoles I've seen, in terms of what's actually offered, which is nothing the previous consoles aren't offering.
Like I said above given the hyper/interest, a lot of people don't agree with you. You're also not looking very hard. They both offer graphical improvements, much better online functionality and system OS enhancements and both have more immersive controller inputs than what PS360 launched with.
Ha! Graphical improvements. Graphics don't mean nothing anymore, Seece. I have posted the Killzone comparison umpteen times in this thread. The jump ain't there. The leap ain't there. Both have more immersive controller inputs??? HAHAHAHAHA!!! You mean Sony with that SAME SNES/N64 derivative called the DualShock? The exact same it has been for the past 20 years only this time it has a little screen on the front? Microsoft's XBox One controller looks virtually the same as the XBox 360 controller. All that's different is the specialized Rumble called Impulse Triggers. And the battery pack is more flush inside the controller body. System OS enhancements? What? Hahahahahaha. Much better online functionality? More servers, eh. Hmm. All I can say Seece is prepare to be surprised at the 8th gen's outcome. You're probably not gonna like it but we tried to prepare you for it.
Seece said:
nin10do said: Nintendo is irrelevant now, sure. Come Holiday and Kart, when people outside of the core and the fanboys start buying the system, that's when it will become apparent. MS, Sony, and the media have tried hard at pushing Nintendo into a corner and making them seem irrelevant after the success of the Wii, but when it comes down to it, and people start getting their hands on this thing, it's going to explode.
You realise Nintendo have already had one holiday right? It's funny how the Wii didn't need a 10 month buffer to get going isn't it? Why exactly is it going to explode? What is it going to offer to the masses which it hasn't for the last 10 months? How exactly are they going to get their hands on it when people aren't buying it? ....
The Nintendo 3DS launched in Japan on February 26, 2011 & March 11, 2011 in North America well ahead of the 2011 holiday season. After a pretty good launch (that didn't quite match Nintendo's sales goals), 3DS went into Slumpsville. It was so bad Nintendo made the biggest price drop in recent memory to jumpstart the system & it STILL didn't really help. But once Nintendo unloaded their bounty of varied games & trusted franchise players, sales rebounded magically overnight & Nintendo had a pretty good holiday season worldwide. Next year at 2012's holiday season, 3DS didn't just do "pretty good" it did FANTASTIC around the world. And in 2013's holiday season, it will do even better than that. The Fall and Rise of Nintendo's 3DS
DS set the tone for Wii. 3DS sets the tone for Wii U. Wii U had great sales at launch putting it right in league with Wii's figures for opening November & December combined. And just like 3DS it will rebound for its 2nd holiday season then get even stronger for its next then DOMINATE the next.
Every generation's different. NES dominated the 3rd gen with no chance of challenge. SNES had to fight for its food against the strong challenger Sega Genesis/Mega Drive in the 4th gen. PS1 & PS2 dominated their competition on the sales charts in the 5th & 6th gens. PS3 WAS dominated by their competition in the 7th gen. So Wii U will not begin like Wii but Wii U will end better than Wii did. Whether you believe it or not, watch what I say. Your clue to Wii U's progress is the 3DS. That's your sign.
Seece said:
nin10do said: This is a system that takes playing to understand and in the midst of silence, post e3 and all this, I've been keeping an ear out and I've noticed, attention is starting to garner with the Wii U.
Really? Because despite Pikmin releasing it just posted sales on par with its lowest ever in the US, and that is its best market. So that's completely anecdotal on your part and evidently isn't what is actually happening.
Summertime. The summertime slump. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D came out for the suddenly struggling 3DS in June of 2011. That Zelda didn't change the fortunes for the 3DS either & about a month later Nintendo did the $80 price cut. Pikmin releases in August that summertime period. Outside of phenomenal-sellers like Wii in its first few years, most consoles usually take a dip in the summertime. Handhelds seem to jump in June as kids are getting gifts for graduating their grade or to give them something to do on the summer road trip. But for the most part all consoles do weaker in the summer.
Once the 3DS picked up by the holidays though that Zelda assisted in its selling power. The same will go for Pikmin this holiday season. It all builds up & then explodes. The pressure principle. Nintendo adding to the pressure of Wii U by unloading a mass of killer games to lock down the holidays. He is right. Buzz IS building. And judging from my co-worker who was once all about Vita & now has bought a 3DS, buzz for 3DS is getting higher too. Expect big Nintendo explosions on the charts this holiday season as Iwata makes good on his ¥100 billion/$ 1 billion profit call for fiscal 2013.
Seece said:
nin10do said: People are starting to get curious about it. What will happen when Nintendo does another Nintendo Experience event with Super Mario 3D World and Kart and people see their old time favorites in HD with this amazing new system that does so much more, when the other two don't do much of anything new.
The same as when they first announced them? Pretty much nothing?
I can't wait to see your face when the sales come out. Simultaneous 4-player in a 3D Mario game has never been done before.It will be a MAJOR hit. Mario Kart is a phenomenon on its own. A Miiverse-empowered Mario Kart will make it even more so. Wow. It's gonna be sweet to see your reaction. The wait is killing me!
Seece said:
nin10do said: This is after those 11-12 million sales, because once people have the box in their home, and maybe some having the other boxes as well, they'll be underwhelmed by the difference in the PS4/XBO. I predict they will become irrelevant and by this time next year, when Smash is out or about to be out, the notion of getting a PS4 or XBO will be ridiculous, even for the core gamers that were all up and excited at the Sony presser. That was me at first, I shouted into the air with that DRM stuff and proclaimed myself a Sony gamer. Then the dust settled and I asked myself, "why?" Then I looked into the Wii U which was honestly off my radar at the time, once I saw it, and what it could do, I became a believer.
The difference is already striking, and yet again people thinking all Sony and Microsoft offer on the table is graphics, tsk tsk. Your comment about them becoming irrelevant is just embarrassing. You can't actually be serious. Yes all those God of War, Halo, GTA, ect fans are simply going to upsticks and jump on board WiiU because of Smash, because that's totally what they did last gen isn't, and the one before that ...
That IS all Sony & Microsoft offer. They have not added anything useful to the gameplay experience that Nintendo hasn't already done. Yep all those God of War, Halo, GTA folks will jump on board Wii U. That's right. But not just because of Smash. There's gonna be a host of games that will be too compelling for them to turn down despite the 3rd party's best efforts to sabotage this console. Throughout the 8th gen Wii U will be siphoning off Sony's & Microsoft's fanbase.
I personally know a serious Sega fan who went to Microsoft after Sega fell out of the console business. He's BIG into XBox 360 & is all about Xbox One. But in his house is a Wii U bought at launch. And he plays it along with his son. He was always a non-Nintendo man. Not necessarily that he hates them but he liked Sega more.
The Sony & Microsoft fans don't have to buy Wii U as their primary console, no. In fact it will be BETTER that Wii U is thought of as the secondary console because just like Wii that will ensure it gets into more homes than just being the primary one. So you take all the folks (like me) who will make Wii U their one & only—their primary console, then take all the XOne & PS4 folks who make Wii U their junior—their secondary console, and you have a DOMINANT console overall. It's all about selling games & selling consoles to play them. And making a profit in the process while influencing the future of the videogame world. Wii U is best poised to do this & you will see this within the next 15 months.
Seece said:
nin10do said: As such, I've been buying stocks and I will be buying more in these days before the price drop hits, and especially before Pokemon hits. I don't know where the market will be 2 years from now, but I do know that the next year will be a good year for Nintendo.
You don't know that you're just guessing.
nin10do puts his money where his mouth is. Money don't grow on trees & I don't think a guy who admitted elsewhere in this thread that he was once all gungho about the PS4 (after the E3 XBox One fiasco) is foolishly frittering his money away. He saw something that has his confidence in the company up. He sees what I see & he's making sure that he will benefit from the rise. Good stock market players defy conventional wisdom. The crowd usually doesn't have foresight. Individuals do. The crowd then follows the individual who led the way. The crowd is more caught up in the safety of numbers so by design they cannot step out on a limb. They will not go against the group because they need the comfort of those numbers. The individual can go it alone & work independently of the crowd & will see things no one else sees. They don't need the crowd for validation. That's why inventions usually come from one person instead of a group of people.
Nintendo certainly functions in an individualistic fashion. They don't follow the crowd & often DEFY the crowd. When everybody goes right, here's Nintendo going left. When everybody goes right again, here's Nintendo going forward. They leave the X-axis & go straight to the Z-axis! Not just the opposite direction on the same dimension but a totally different direction on a whole 'nother dimension!
nin10do's not guessing. nin10do knows. And nin10do will laugh once the crowd catches up to what he sees & I see... ...with his stacks of cash from strengthening Nintendo stock.
Seece said:
nin10do said: P.S; it's not underpowered, it's more powerful than it seems but again, I'll get to that soon. I will say this, PS4 and XBO aren't getting better than what we'll see at launch. The reason things get progressively better with most consoles is that they use custom hardware which is hard to develop for and they don't know how to use the hardware and it takes time to develop special tools for them. That's not the case anymore with those two. They have no barrier for entry so what we see now is what we get from them. What we see from Wii U now, is only the beginning.
It is what it is, fact of the matter is though that third parties are not interested and there is still a significant gap between WiiU and PS4ONE. Also you're completely wrong on the last part.
3rd parties are playing games as always. Political games, that is. They will be broken & humbled this generation. They can't help but to be interested once their vehicle crashes. That vehicle known in the 7th gen as the PS360 combination. PX4One won't sustain. They can't depend on the dual platforms of Sony & Microsoft this generation. One or both will drop this gen. And they will come crawling to the Wii U sooner or later. The easy way or the hard way.
nin10do has shared with me in private messages the hidden hardware potential of Wii U. I'm impressed by it but I'm more impressed by Nintendo's software potential. This foolishness about significant gaps. The PS2 had a significant gap versus the GC & XB. But that didn't stop it from becoming the best-selling home console of all time, did it? Based on nin10do's private messages, I'm inclined to believe him on that last part. The big shock this generation will be how One & PS4 don't look significantly better than 360 & PS3. I'm just waiting for the shoe to drop.
Thoughts in bold - Overall this reads like a pipe dream and a wishlist. At least you offer some (all be it ridiculous) reasoning, unlike JohnLucas who is talking nonsense and offering nothing.
It amazes me how you guys are defying logic here, in actual fact after reading what you guys have said I can't believe either of you are serious :P
Nintendo will do well with their core base this holiday, but outside of that nobody is interested. The casuals noticed the Wii from the start, and they didn't buy in because of Zelda and Donkey Kong (are you frigging kidding me?) they bought it because it was accessible, fresh and the IT product of its time. It's laughable you just expect this thing to be a mega hit out of the blue because of Nintendo franchises (that never even pushed the Wii to the masses, that was Wiifit, Wii Sports ect)
As for gamers overall abandoning Sony and Microsoft, that's a joke in itself it too many ways to count. PS4 and One offer them more or less exactly what they wanted from PS360, whilst WiiU offers them the same as what the Wii did, how and why do you expect them to give up all those franchises to play Nintendo and Ubisoft games??? No Halo, God of War, Forza, Gran Turismo, Elder Scrolls, Fallout, Division, Destiny, Titanfall, Fable, LBP, Killzone, Uncharted ect ect ect .....
I'll be back in January to see what you guys make of the holiday sales (which will disappoint you)
Even a significant price drop and games for the 3DS never pushed it hard in the US 540k in November 2012 and 1.2m in December. On the back of an $80 price cut and a slew of games, all whilst selling on average 4 times better monthly than WiiU before its price cut. Sales continue to disappoint there, (yes they will pick up with Pokemon).
WiiU has to sell 6m+ for these insane predictions to come true by the end of the year, when US is its strongest market, and the drastic 3DS intervention failed to give it more than 1.6m in the US in the holiday season, why are you guys expecting something like 3m+ in the US this holiday? Probably more, given Europe is Nintendos weakest market (by a margin) right now and home consoles never do millions over the holiday period in Japan.
Lucas your prediction is even more ludicrus, 12m by end of the year, that's 8m+ ...
You still believe in this "casual" bull, don't you? The casuals. The casuals. You don't realize that you're just spewing marketer talk, right? No such thing as casuals. No such thing as hardcores. I have explained that point many times in this thread.
You seem like the kind of guy who wouldn't think the Titanic could ever sink. Who wouldn't think Three Mile Island would have a nuclear meltdown. Who wouldn't think Atari could ever be dethroned from the videogame kingdom. Who wouldn't think Apple could ever dethrone Sony from the portable music world. Who wouldn't think tablets could be a threat to laptops on the retail shelves.
It seems you're the type who has to see it believe it. Fair enough. You're underestimating Japan HEAVILY but that's OK. With Sony putting itself out of the picture ENTIRELY in Japan for the PS4, Nintendo has a chance to clamp down the Japanese market all to itself much like Sony did to its Japanese competition in the 6th gen with the PS2. Vita ain't a threat & probably will never become one at this point. So Nintendo will have the hot 3DS droppin' bombs AND the Wii U droppin' hammers. They get to do this uncontested in Japan since both the PS4 AND XOne won't even show up until 2014. They do this against the tide of the near-simultaneous launches of the XOne & PS4 in America & Europe. Both Wii U & ESPECIALLY 3DS pick up the prospectors who didn't jump in last holiday season but have been curious about the consoles.
Critical mass is coming & I can't wait. They're about to get off the fence, Seece. The headlines will be endless about 3DS's domination & Wii U's turnaround. You'll just have to see it to believe it.
The real power of John Lucas is to inspire people to actually make VGChartz accounts so they can post in this thread;)
Michael Pachter, the infamous analyst of Wedbush have predicted WiiU to reach 8,5 mill by this calendar year, despite its awful 1st quarter sales. At the same time, he predicted 3DS sales to be ridiculous this holiday. Either way, Nintendo as a whole will be fine. What happens in 2014? God knows.
Yeah I agree, Ninty will be fine. Pachter predicted 8.5m? That's actually a solid prediction! If a little high.
Even wrong-way Pachter knows. He NEVER hardly gets it right but even HE knows Nintendo will be strong this holiday season. You're gonna trust a guy like that over a guy like me?? Hahahahahahahaha!
Deep down even you know that Nintendo will be alright this holiday season despite your arguments on this thread. But 2013 is just the beginning. 2014 will REALLY show you what Nintendo is all about. Satoru Iwata was COMMITTED to ¥100 billion in profits for the 2013 fiscal year. That's roughly $1 billion American. You don't hear Iwata making such bold claims if he couldn't back it up. He knows & I know Nintendo will have an EXCELLENT 2013 & the past 2 years of annual losses will soon become a distant memory, a bad dream. From this point forward, NINTENDOMINATION will be at hand once again. And it will overshadow last generation's NINTENDOMINATION when the history books are done being written.
3DS is your clue to the success of the Wii U. Remember this. John Lucas
God these guys are relentless! Here we go. Let's see if I can keep it as short as I can.
richardhutnik said:
Yes, you are right here. The PS3 and 360 will keep outselling the Wii U, because they have much larger libraries, are cheaper, and you really can't tell the difference between the WiiU and current gen stuff anyhow. Power doesn't matter at all. Hey, you are right! Or, hey, do you want to argue power matters, JUST ENOUGH, so that the Wii U has a reason for people to buy it.
No. Power isn't a selling feature anymore & Wii U doesn't sell itself on the power of the system. THAT'S the difference. They're selling you a new playing experience not a more powerful playing experience. Your mocking statements will actually factor in for the PS4 & the One. Since these guys aren't really giving you much more than what you experienced with the PS3 & 360, they'll run into competition with their older cheaper predecessors.
Both Sony & Microsoft are sort of at a loss in how to promote their console after the revolution Wii started. You got Microsoft talking about TV & sports & you get the sense that they want to promote power but are gunshy about it due to what happened in the 7th gen. You got Sony hoping for any break & trying to get brownie points on Microsoft's mistakes. They seem to want to say power power power too but they too are gunshy about it due to the 7th gen's outcome. And this time they don't have a new media format to push like they had for each PlayStation in the past (much like Vita didn't) so what do they say?
Hardware refinements are a given. You always try to tweak performance & get it better & more efficient. But Power is NO LONGER a selling feature. NO LONGER A SELLING FEATURE. Wii made sure of that.
"The time when horsepower alone made an important difference is over," says the brilliant Satoru Iwata at E3 2004. I said this quote a million times in this thread & I'll say it a million more. Let it sink in before you get the urge to talk about power arguments.
richardhutnik said:
If johnlucas were predicting sales of Nintendo's next home console after this upcoming generation and after the Wii U, no way would I even get near that. There is WAY too much not known. I personally hate getting into the predicing game, because too much weird stuff can happen that makes everyone look bad. I can now see a scenario happening when the 3DS and WiiU come together in a single tablet, due to the 2DS coming out. This would be an integrated system for home and portable that I have no idea how well it would do, particularly if it goes all digital download. I now see this happening. I did not see it before the 2DS. Nintendo has been telegraphing what its future moves might be, based on what they do at a given time. The DS telegraphed the Wii U, for example.
What I saw from johnlucas is predictions of an upcoming crash, presumptions Nintendo escapes unharmed, and Nintendo being the ONLY option for gamers, so third party MUST return to Nintendo, and they will be humbled and forced to bow to Nintendo's wishes, because they won't have other options. Assuming you take out Microsoft and Sony, you still have PC and Android. Apple could also decide to enter the market also. SOMEONE will enter if Microsoft and Sony drop out, so no way Nintendo gets the market alone, Thus the 240 million lifetime isn't happening for the WiiU.
I'm just gonna reference what I put in bold here.
My argument is that what is currently now known as the "PS360", the unofficially combined platform the 3rd party uses to make its sales will not continue to exist in the 8th generation. They will not be able to count on the 8th gen version the "PX4One" to pad their sales & recoup the costs of their multi-million dollar/billion dollar game budgets. One of those guys is going to drop out, maybe Sony, maybe Microsoft, but one of those guys won't be able to continue this fight or at the very least refuse to continue the fight under pressure from stockholders.
You think the 3rd party has refuge in the PC market & that is LAUGHABLE. The PC market is gone except for a few holdouts like I said so many times before Blizzard, Maxis, & Valve. And only Blizzard remains ENTIRELY in the PC market to sell its games. Maxis throws stuff to consoles (can't help it being a subsidiary of EA). And even Valve puts out Portal 2 for the XBox 360 & PlayStation 3. Valve is so unconfident in the PC market that they are somehow trying to create a console everybody calls the Steam Box! You already GOT a Steam Box! It's called the PC! Hahahahahahahaha!
Yeah the few that remain maximize their potential & make revenues up to $20 billion. But a lot of that $20 billion is run by Blizzard. World of Warcraft is a lifestyle not so much a game anymore. And before you mention China, the most populated country in the world, I got this article for you. Just read the headline alone. PC Gaming Hits $20 Billion in 2012, Has One-Billion Gamers Worldwide
20 Billion dollars. 1 Billion people. That's a lot of people. That's a lot of money.
Now keep in mind that the first link I put is counting for 2008 when it is for Nintendo's Fiscal 2007 (ending March 2008) & counting for 2009 when it is for Nintendo's Fiscal 2008 (ending March 2009). It took me awhile to figure that out since their numbers weren't matching Nintendo's fiscal sheets if you counted how they presented it.
In Fiscal 2007, Nintendo made revenues equivalent to over $16.7 billion. Life-to-date unit sales of their DS's were at that time 70.6 million. Life-to-date unit sales of their Wiis were at that time 24.45 million. In Fiscal 2008, Nintendo made revenues equivalent to over $18.7 billion. Life-to date unit sales of their DS's were at the time 101.78 million. Life-to date unit sales of their Wiis were at the time 50.39 million.
So for Fiscal 2007, one company alone—Nintendo—made nearly $17 Billion with a combined userbase of 95.05 million (70.6 + 24.45). So for Fiscal 2008, one company alone—Nintendo—made nearly $19 Billion with a combined userbase of 152.17 million (101.78 + 50.39). 17 Billion dollars with 95 Million people. 19 Billion dollars with 152 Million people.
So Nintendo ALONE made about the same amount of revenue as THE ENTIRE PC gameworld COMBINED... ...and did it with only 1/10 of the people the PC world used. One-tenth. 10% to make the same amount of revenues. It took a BILLION for ALL the PC guys COMBINED to see 20 Billion. It took a HUNDRED MILLION for Nintendo BY ITSELF to see 20 Billion. And Nintendo didn't even need China to do it!
The PC is in every industrialized & semi-industrialized nation on Earth. Consoles are mostly concentrated in Japan, the Americas (mostly North), Europe, Australia & various scattered parts of the world. WAY more PCs are sold than consoles. Yet consoles have this push in the gaming world that PC's just can't match. And who governs the console world? The House of Mario, Nintendo.
That $20 Billion/1 Billion people article LOOKS good but when the facts are laid out like I just did here, you see quite clearly why the game developers go to the consoles to make money. Including Maxis owner EA. Electronic Arts started as a computer game developer. There's a reason why The PC Gaming Alliance formed & there's a reason why they're trying hard to promote the PC as a viable place for gaming business. It's because the consoles (ultimately meaning Nintendo at the root) wrecked their world decades ago. They're trying their best to salvage this wasteland. Maybe they'll turn it back into a grassland at least. Perhaps start a little garden even. That's what they hope anyway.
And I told you many times on this thread not to get too gung ho about Android working through the new PC, the smartphones & tablets. If the 3rd party saw any REAL opportunity over there to make bucks, they would have left both Sony AND Microsoft out to dry & moved everything over to the tablets great & small. 3rd party are mercenaries, they don't care. They don't have long-lasting loyalties. They're just dabbling right now because they ultimately don't trust this market. They'll play in the waters for a while but when the piss starts to contaminate the pool, they're jumping right out of the waters & toweling off on the way to the console car.
By the way, Apple is already IN the market. That's what the backdoor strategy of the iPod Touch & iPhone was all about. They're a part of the smartphone gang I mentioned in this thread. The leading member in fact. They opened the door for Google's Android.
And "SOMEONE" will enter the market if Microsoft and/or Sony drop out. Who? Microsoft & Sony are among the BIGGEST companies IN THE WORLD. It doesn't get much bigger than these guys. If THEY can't handle a little playing card/toy/game company from Kyoto, who in the hell can? Who in the hell would want to? The videogame business is rough!
We have already seen electronics companies involved with this videogame thing: Magnavox, Tandy [Radio Shack], RCA, APF, Emerson, Casio, Daewoo, Amstrad, Sony, Phillips, Watara, Pioneer, Matsushita/Panasonic, Tiger Telematics, Apex Digital. Toy companies involved: Milton Bradley, Coleco, Mattel, Bandai, Epoch, Entex, Worlds of Wonder, Tiger Electronics, TecToy. Arcade/computer game makers involved: Atari, Bally/Midway, Sega, RDI Video Systems, Hudson Soft, SNK, Bit, 3DO. Game Park, Valve. Game peripheral makers involved: MadCatz, Razer. Semiconductor companies involved: Fairchild, UMC, Qualcomm, Sony, VM Labs. Computer/information technology companies involved: NEC, Commodore, Fujitsu, Altera, Apple, Microsoft, Nokia, NVidia. Cloud software/network companies involved: Google, Valve, Onlive, Gaikai, OTOY, Playcast, PlayJam, BlueStacks. And a host of random startups involved from Tapwave to Infinium Labs/Phantom Entertainment to Ouya trying to make it big.
You see all that & you think somebody would be worthy to challenge Nintendo? Some of those companies I mentioned are well-known while others are more obscure but it shows that both BEFORE Nintendo & AFTER Nintendo none of those companies ever could or would keep this business intact.
Nintendo's about to finish off these mega-sized giants Sony & Microsoft in the videogame realm. I would LOVE to see the next challenger. Who would it be? Guess we'll have to settle for this mobile market in the meantime. Nintendo will be helping to wreck that market soon if the mobile guys don't do it to themselves first, that is.
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. The 3rd party has to deal with Nintendo sooner or later & they'll have to do it on Nintendo's terms. John Lucas
You think the 3rd party has refuge in the PC market & that is LAUGHABLE. The PC market is gone except for a few holdouts like I said so many time before Blizzard, Maxis, & Valve. And only Blizzard remains ENTIRELY in the PC market to sell its games. Maxis throws stuff to consoles (can't help it being a subsidiary of EA). And even Valve puts out Portal 2 for the XBox 360 & PlayStation 3. Valve is so unconfident in the PC market that they are somehow trying to create a console everybody calls the Steam Box! You already GOT a Steam Box! It's called the PC! Hahahahahahahaha!
Yeah the few that remain maximize their potential & make revenues up to $20 billion. But a lot of that $20 billion is run by Blizzard. World of Warcraft is a lifestyle not so much a game anymore. And before you mention China, the most populated country in the world, I got this article for you. Just read the headline alone. PC Gaming Hits $20 Billion in 2012, Has One-Billion Gamers Worldwide
20 Billion dollars. 1 Billion people. That's a lot of people. That's a lot of money.
Nah. The PC seems to be switching into another gear over the last year and the next couple of years. Star Citizen being a prime example, being the first AAA game funded by the people, for the people and only on PC.
Then you have League of Legends, with more players in that one game than exists on the entirety of Xbox Live. DOTA 2 is also climbing.
StarWars MMO that Bioware put out is the most expensive game ever made, which is also PC only. - That wouldn't have happened if there was no business case for it. World of Tanks is also climbing up the popularity ladder.
Valve hasn't lost confidence in the PC, it's profits, the amount of people using, playing and buying on Steam has been climbing over the past few years and not slowly either, that's mostly just hyperbole on your part, any smart business should look to expand outside of it's bread-and-butter market which is exactly what valve has and will continue to attempt.
World of WarCraft however is on the decline, it's still a very profitable game or heck, even the most profitable game ever made, but that won't last forever. :)
Plenty of PC only developers, lots of kickstarter projects, lots of mods that are being turned into full fledged games that are PC only, lets not forget PC games are cheaper, look better, sound better, run smoother and have a better and a larger choice of controls too! Entire genre's of games are pretty much non-existent on consoles, all genre's are pretty much readily available on PC.
Of course, some people have specific reasons for choosing a particular platform, mostly just personal tastes and all.
And lastly, Valve doesn't give out any numbers on the amount of games sold or the profits from each game sold (Neither does EA with Origin or Ubisoft with uPlay), hence that 20 billion number is probably incredibly inaccurate.
I will try to respond to johnlucas's wall of text here. It is very long and bear with my memory being what it is.
* Raw power isn't an issue, but SUFFICIENT power is. Third party has ramped up to the specs of the PS4 and XBOX ONE and have bypassed the WiiU completely. The Wii U gets some current gen stuff, but next gen stuff isn't there. What will be required is companies scale back their projects, doing Boomblox type specific targets for the Wii U, and reposition. This will be a number of years from now, as next gen development has been there.
* Nintendo MUST show the second screen is a killer app type feature. Things live or die based upon this. I says this in regards to the "raw power" comment. One can't just say "raw power isn't the answer" and say it is something else, and then fail to show some other feature which is desired. You can't end around and not explain why people are going to want the second screen in large numbers. I have yet to see johnlucas show this. Of course, johnlucas can't because there is no evidence in regards to sales numbers that show this.
* The ONE and PS4 are very close to PCs in their specs. You are going to see studios go on PC or Android or iOS BEFORE they go to Nintendo. There is very little licensing fees involved. You have control, AND you have a much larger established market for games than you do with Nintendo, in regards to places to play.
* And yes Apple and Google are making plays in the game market, secondarily. Google will far more be doing so here, as more Android micro-consoles hit the market. Amazon is looking to do it, for their market of games. And others are coming. Point of that is that there ARE alternatives to Nintendo that johnlucas completely discounts.
Haha, thanks for holding the fort while I was away, I'll tag in now. I've been doublechecking numbers, and verifying my theories with something much more knowledgeable in computers than myself, and I think I'll get to posting what I sent you in the PMs, with more data to support it and even an irrelevant video that just so happened to get uploaded a few hours ago talking about the Xbox One and PS4's power, by 2 more people with technical prowess that just happily coincides with me getting the info ready. Be warned, you'll be here for a while (Why not listen to this while you read) So let's begin, I'll start with the contents of the PM:
That was a few weeks back now, and at the time was more of a theory, now it's more than that. First off, let's talk about the XBO/PS4. No doubt you've seen the mentions of Battlefield 4 on the PS4, but there's also Killer Instinct on the Xbox One, a fighting game runnng at 720p. Here's that video I mentioned, you could watch the first 10 minutes, it gets the main point across: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdaCxtDg1qA
So if you watched all the way you'll see what was mentioned, if not I'll summarize. It quotes a KI developer talking about the game, and when asked about the resolution he says it technically runs at 720p 60FPS and anything that drops the framerate or resolution is removed or optimized. This is a launch downloadable title. Even if it was retail, w/e they are hitting walls. He goes on to mention what I've been saying for the longest, there's no progression with these systems. Bare in mind this dude is unbiased and knows his stuff. Moreso than I can say. He also mentions that it's incredibly bad that they are hitting walls before launch and the results aren't that great, and maybe the Wii U isn't that far behind as everyone expects, despite the RAM.
Now there's the CPU. So on the discussion of power someone with more technical prowess gave their thoughts:
The Wii U's CPU has a 4-stage pipeline. Running above 1 GHz with a 4-stage pipeline is very impressive. The Jaguar CPU has up to a 14-stage pipeline. These Jaguar CPUs are capable of a much higher clock rate than 1.5 GHz. Each core in the Wii U's CPU is at least twice as powerful as each Jaguar core due to being far more efficient with clock rates. The only difference here is that the PS4 and XB1 have 8 cores and not 6.
Trying to put the 4-stage to 14-stage pipeline into simple comparison. Saying the Wii U's CPU runs at 1.2GHz, it takes 3 nanoseconds for an operation to complete. Using the figure of the XB1 CPU running at 1.75GHz, it takes 8 nanoseconds for an operation to complete.The reason for more stages in a pipeline is that the next operation typically completes .87 nanoseconds later for the Wii U and .57 nanoseconds later for the XB1. The problem is that there are these conditional branch operations, all of the flow control and logic functions. If the next operation in the pipeline is not the correct operation, the next operation starts at stage 1 on the next clock cycle, leaving the next 13 hertz wasted. It doesn't sound like much, but these are among the most common statements handled in a CPU.
As far as RAM, the Jaguar cores use an x86 based instruction set. It needs 8GB of RAM because x86 is not as efficient as newer instruction sets. The engineers can't fix this because it would break backwards compatibility on PCs.
My opinion is that the Wii U is more efficient with its resources than the XB1 and PS4. That bandwidth the Wii U has will have smaller objects passed across it than what the XB1 will have, permitting more objects to move on the Wii U. The Wii U's CPU will have very few wasted clock cycles compared the the PS4/XB1 CPUs.
Just because the PS4/XB1 CPUs are 8 core and run 1.5~1.75 GHz does not mean that every hertz will be fully used. Even with multi-threading and multi-tasking, all 8 cores will never be used to max capabilities. That is functionally impossible. The reason for 8 cores, and the GDDR5 RAM on the PS4, is to provide enough slack to compensate for performance impacts. The GDDR5 RAM may have the capability of transferring X GB/s of data, but the real numbers the engineers want is the quantity of times per second the RAM is accessed and how large of an object can be sent in one transfer. Something extra, that 0.3 TFLOPS rating for the Wii U's GPU is likely the GPGPU's performance, not the graphics rendering performance.
This was the beginning. The biggest question is x86 vs PowerPC. He gave me some insight on that:
x86
The x86 instruction code was designed back in the 1970s when RAM was very limited, 1024 to like 4086 bytes of RAM. It used variable length instruction code to be space efficient in RAM. This was fine when the CPU was 8 bit. Going into 16 bit and 32 bit, the RAM size moved up to 65,536 bytes and then 2 million bytes. Further, the first chip did not have expansion libraries, but only restricted to a library of 127 functions on the CPU, because one bit in the first byte on x86 (the operation to perform) was 0 if in the primary 127 functions or 1 if it wasn't. When the 286 came out, extended functions required a second byte to fetch for operation code.
Intel never intended for x86 to live past the 1990s. They developed the Itanium instruction code to replace it. When I get to megahertz myth, I will explain that. x86 was designed for small systems, which today are appliances. It was efficient in early models, but not these advanced systems of today.
PowerPC
IBM developed POWERPC in the 1990s, 2 decades after x86. Systems have evolved, and this newer architecture takes advantage of it. The reason why I put POWERPC in caps here is because it really is an acronym. To be short, POWERPC is RISC design, Reduced Instruction Set Computer, built for performance.
For POWERPC, instruction code is fixed width, 32bit for most POWERPC CPUs, like the Wii U. This takes less clock cycles to fetch instructions. It requires less memory usage. Overall, requires less power for the CPU and cooler temperatures. This gives room for higher clock speeds and allowing multiple instruction operations per clock cycle.
Another part with POWERPC CPUs, many are not backwards compatible because IBM's engineers may adjust the instruction library to be more efficient to process in the CPU.
Overall, POWERPC is more powerful than x86 with current systems by a long shot by not requiring as much resources per instruction to perform operations.
So I presented him with my theory from the PM, and well:
Developers, like managers, can exaggerate. They do so to justify a budget and the need of so many employees. Using multiple speed RAM is a matter of resource allocation, which is not that hard to handle.
The Wii U follows the design of the Gamecube. It is not as hard to develop as said.
x86 is very inefficient today. It was efficient back when it was made for cheap 4-bit and 8-bit systems.
The Wii U uses less RAM and loses less cycles than the XB1 and PS4. Smaller is better, as clock rate is govern by speed of light.
The overclocking statement is a misunderstanding. If the Wii U CPU is able to reach higher clock rates, it is really underclocked, not overclocked. The CPU may have power states that reduce the clock rate and shut down extra units when not needed. The guy who said the clock rate is 1.2 GHz may not have pushed the system to go to full power or did not know the instruction to force full power state. He was probing around, not working with a manual.
All of this supports my admittedly originally half baked theory, well not anymore. Of course my word isn't everything, just watch that video I linked, the caps are being hit on the PS4/XBO. Bayonetta, the first obviously graphically intenstive game coming out of Nintendo is going to be at 1080p 60FPS. There's no dicking around on that one. It's not a racer or a fighter or with simple textures/models. It's a full blown game with great performance at year 2, with the consoles shipping at their max potential what excuse is there for Killer Instinct? For Knack at 720p, and Killzone at 30FPS with dips, Ryse looking like a buggy mess with dips as well. AC4 at 30FPS aiming for 1080p. At stated before, graphics don't matter too much, neither does power in general, but let's put that aside since you are all so insistent. What does this show? This is year 2, hell I wouldn't even say that since the devs had pushbacks due to understaffing, even then what's Mario Kart, at just over a year with 1080p 60FPS with 2 player Split screen ready at e3, and with them aiming for 4 player splitscreen 60FPS native 1080p. Battlefield struggling to do 720p and with unsatisfactory visuals. What say you of this?
Here's my theory, one that will never be confirmed of course because this information will never be public but regardless. My thoughts are that Sony and MS saw Nintendo put their system on the market, and they got flustered and rushed to designing a new system. 2011 was right when they started profiting on the PS3/360 with no signs of sales faltering, had it gone their way they would have kept it up for another 3-5 years. It didn't go their way, and 3 months after that inspiring speech of continuing to make the impossible possible, they did, by revealing the Wii U and throwing their competition a curveball out of nowhere. Sure Cerny said they've been planning it since 08 but I don't buy that and there's a difference between the conceptual stage and actually starting R&D, something tells me that bit began for both MS and Sony in 2011. They rushed to not let themselves get beaten to the market badly and both designed something easy for them, a laptop/budget pc with their firmware and sent it through testing. These consoles are clearly rushed, as has been the software. Looking at their displays this year objectively. These surprise announcements 6 months before release, last second hardware changes (not policies), nothing ready for e3. News of Xbox One cases MELTING! and them having to underclock the CPU and that's why they've been slowly increasing it bit by bit.
These aren't consoles, they are laptops chopped in half and put in custom boxes. They push and push to make things seem better for them than they really are, and again Sony is offering false promises. Does nobody remember PS3 launch or the PS2 with Toy Story Graphics? Deep Down has since been confirmed to have been a CG render, despite them saying on stage it was running in real time on the PS4, when they didn't even have devkits ready until Gamescom! As well as everything at e3 running on PCs with higher graphical fidelity than the systems themselves. They are throwing a whole bunch of CG at us and hoping we don't notice again when the console comes out. It'll bite them in the ass though. Early adopters will be fooled, but that's only 2 million or so users.
These systems are static, but Wii U is growing, day by day, week by week, month by month, year by year. Sure, 2013 they'll have the upper hand, but what about next year? Wii U will intensify while the others stay in the same spot. Maybe they'll take holiday 2014 graphics as well, but after that? No I think that's when it's going to be an issue for them. By holiday 2014 it'll be clear to the general public the Wii U is taking the lead through performance in games, but in 2015 it will be known to everyone which system is on top. The Wii U is the only true console in the 8th gen, but not only that it is the perfect console by design. It follows the greatness of the Wii, and expands on that with the ultimate peripheral, the U pad. Build for the so called "hardcore" gamer. Rather, the core gamer. Sure you can say other systems can do it, but technically an SNES controller can do anything current systems can do, just use the bumpers to cycle between what the buttons can do. It just wouldn't be very efficient. That's what the Wii U is all about, from the software, to the hardware, and most importantly the peripheral, the U pad. Dual screens were the same thing, why do I need them? Well after you use them on a DS it becomes clear, it makes games a lot better to have that dual screen. Even if it's a simple thing like a mini map in Kart. No, not all games require it, a Platformer won't make much use of it, but now with the gamepad you aren't being held back, so you can still do anything other controllers can do and then some. Sure, Wonderful 101 could be done on a standard controller, but as reviews have stated, the stick isn't as good as using the gamepad. That style of game wouldn't have been made for regular controllers because they don't offer the complete functionality of the pad. Mario games won't need the gamepad but Zelda games gain a lot out of it. As does Pikmin and so will Metroid.
The Gamepad makes the system what it is, and without it, it'd just be another HD box to join the fray. With it, you can play games like never before. That's what will lead it to victory, it truly is Unique, while PS4/XBO are more of the same, without reason to buy it. Their online isn't any better, that's a misconception. It's simply a matter of features, the XBO won't offer anything that the 360 doesn't, it's the same Xbox LIVE, same with PSN, the only difference is an OS improvement. You can't say the Wii U is lacking online because it doesn't have some of the social features, which is something we know Nintendo is fixing and the unified account system for the Wii U and 3DS will likely drop before the WWHD bundle or in early October, the second update. The Wii U has just as capable online infastructure, thanks to the help of EA, which goes against the naysay from a certain completely irrelevant company, in which Nintendo had EA help them with the online infrastucture.
This system is not only plenty powerful for the average consumer (about 99% of us), it's much more efficient than the PS4 and Xbox One and it will blow them away, not for the superior power, but for the unique exclusive gameplay experiences while still offering what you already love.
Nah. The PC seems to be switching into another gear over the last year and the next couple of years. Star Citizen being a prime example, being the first AAA game funded by the people, for the people and only on PC.
Then you have League of Legends, with more players in that one game than exists on the entirety of Xbox Live. DOTA 2 is also climbing.
StarWars MMO that Bioware put out is the most expensive game ever made, which is also PC only. - That wouldn't have happened if there was no business case for it. World of Tanks is also climbing up the popularity ladder.
About time we got some new folks debating in this thread. Glad to see you Pemalite.
OK, I checked out the points you made. Star Citizen. Developed primarily by Cloud Imperium Games (owned by Chris Roberts of Wing Commander fame) & Behaviour Interactive, the largest independent developer in Canada. Game to be released somewhere in 2015. Top-notch game development by the people, for the people, & exclusive to PC.
This shows confidence in the PC platform! I see so little of that from all the loudmouthed PC developers flapping gums about Nintendo's deficiencies while either being owned by a publisher who makes its money mostly on consoles (Maxis—owned by EA, DICE—owned by EA, BioWare—owned by EA, idSoftware—owned by Bethesda/ZeniMax) or being self-owned but going to the consoles to make their money (Bethesda, Epic Games, Telltale Games, Avalanche Studios, Funcom/Red Thread Games, GSC Game World/4A Games, & yes EA). These PC guys had become salty when their games didn't sell enough on PC alone & they were forced to go to the consoles to stay alive. Some even let themselves be bought out to stay afloat & be subsidized. Problem is that subsidization comes from the consoles. Let's see if Star Citizen can make it solely on the PC. If they do, at least they actually believed in their platform unlike these loudmouths & made success from it.
Next, League of Legends. Developed by Riot Games, a subsidiary of China-based internet services house Tencent Holdings. Game released worldwide on October 27, 2009. According to my findings, in 2012 this MMO battle arena game had over 32 million registered players & averages about 12 million players a day worldwide. As of 2013 this game is the most popular e-sports game in South Korea. Hmmmm. There have been cash prizes given out in public tournaments of the game one of them being a pool for $5 million. Impressive. Riot Games, the maker of the game, has rumored revenues of over $150 million... ...wait a minute. Just $150 million? After all that I just posted??
Ah that's the situation. The game is free to play. There it is. Money is only made through microtransactions buying Riot Points which give you the ability to buy new characters (champions) to play with, skins for those characters, performance enhancing boosts & other options. Freemium stuff again. More pay-to-win stuff. Easy to get a large gathering when you don't have to pay for nothing. And these guys should be making a LOT more than $150 million as big as this game is. Once again, it shows flaws in the PC market for revenue/profit potential.
Dota 2. Developed by Valve. Game just released on July 9, 2013. It's a little better than League of Legends setup. No signs of pay-to-win there so far. Free-to-play with no holding back of essential gameplay content. They pretty much just take donations as people buy community-created costumes & other things like virtual books (interactive compendiums?) from the in-game store. Valve even shares royalties with the costume makers. Pretty nice. Valve won't share those revenues with the public, however, & all we got to go on is Team Fortress 2's free-to-pay/donations model which raised $3.5 million for its costume makers. Nice number but it's not enough to have the strong videogame business that Nintendo enjoys.
Star Wars: The Old Republic. Developed by Electronic Arts' subsidiary BioWare. Co-published by Electronic Arts & LucasArts. Game released on December 20, 2011. This game, the most expensive video game ever made, was originally subscription-based by times between 30-day to 180-day spans & prices between $14.99 to $77.94. Co-publishers EA & LucasArts expected to beat World of Warcraft's record of 11 million subscribers with this game. After all it's the Star Wars universe full of Billy Dee as Lando, Princess Leia in a bikini for Jabba the Hutt, "Luke I am your father!", Ewoks, Wookies, Death Stars, Boba Fetts, Yodas, R2-D2s & C-3POs, Darth Mauls, Samuel L. as Jedi, Lightsaber Fights, Clone Attacks, Millenium Falcons & Darth Vader not to mention Jar Jar & the Expanded Universe. What could go wrong?
After reaching 1.7 million subscribers in February of 2012, the subscription count for the world's most expensively-made game started slipping. That July after the subscriber count slipped under 1 million, EA decides to open up the first 15 levels for free-to-play. We're a long way from 11 million, boss! They had already been giving out numerous free trial weekends that year to sweeten the pot. Not enough. And soon neither was this. That November, EA then opens up the first 50 levels for free-to-play! EA mentions that it only takes half a million subscribers for this game to be profitable & they were well above that number. Sure you are, bo. Sure you are. Then what are those layoffs at BioWare Austin all about? Hey, the EA Louse warned you! Sorry Old Republic subscribers.
Funny thing happened to the other co-publisher LucasArts that year of 2012. They published Kinect Star Wars for April. Powered by the Star Wars-themed XBox 360/Kinect bundle package with R2-D2 styled console & C-3PO styled controller the game makes it to 1.39 million despite disappointing feedback. Suffering from years of layoffs, resignations, & random disappointments, LucasArts would soon get the biggest blow ever. George Lucas, the Lucas in LucasArts, was ready to retire. He was tired of the blockbusters, tired of the whole business in general. He was ready to sell his namesakes............to The Walt Disney Company. Darth Mickey? WHAT? With that move the whole Lucas Empire including Industrial Light & Magic, LucasFilm, & LucasArts was owned by Disney. Almost fittingly the last game published by LucasArts was Rovio's Angry Birds Star Wars.
Disney stated that they wanted all employees in Lucas' properties to stay where they are... ...until they laid them off, of course. On April 3, 2013, LucasArts would no longer be a game developer. The company along with ILM was gutted save for 10 employees to keep the label open as a licensor. Disney made these moves to minimize the company's risk while achieving a broad portfolio of Star Wars games. The first game made from the Disney-run LucasArts.........Angry Birds Star Wars II. Like its predecessor it will probably be ported to consoles.
World of Tanks. Developed by Wargaming.net. Game released first in Russia on August 12, 2010 with other releases spanning 2011-2012. Freemium model. Pay-to-win. Interesting to have an MMO tanks game though. You get tired of orcs sometimes. Wargaming.net's fiscal 2012 revenue (ending December 31, 2012) was over €217.9 million with a nearly €6.2 million profit! (that was about $287.4 million U.S. for revenue & nearly $8.2 million U.S. for profit) And it comes almost entirely from this game! Impressive. 60 million registered players worldwide too. Nice.
By the way, World of Tanks will be coming to the consoles. The XBox 360 to be exact. So there's that. In addition, Wargaming.net's CEO Victor Kislyi is EXCITED to bring World of Ranks TO the XBox 360, a console. By ratios, World of Tanks has about double the registered players as League of Legends does & fittingly about double the revenues. As big as a game like this is, you would expect more money to be in Wargaming.net's pockets.
Though it's not perfectly comparable let's just take the 33.92 million Mario Kart Wii alone has sold & compare it to League of Legends & World of Tanks. 33.92 million Mario Kart Wiis sold × $49.99 price = $1,695,660,800 → nearly $1.7 billion in revenue. Just one simple game from Nintendo made them nearly $1.7 billion in revenue. That's headed in the neighborhood of $2 billion. $2 billion is about Oprah's financial worth! Nintendo damn near sold an Oprah!
So where League of Legends makes $150 million with 32 million registered players, Mario Kart Wii alone made $1.7 billion with above 32 million owners. And World of Tanks making its equivalent of $287.4 million with 60 million registered players, double Mario Kart Wii's figures to get $3.4 billion with well above 60 million owners. The PC market just can't compare to the console market even at its best. I don't wish the platform harm but business-wise I have broken down & detailed everything you just mentioned. And these are the results.
Pemalite said: Valve hasn't lost confidence in the PC, it's profits, the amount of people using, playing and buying on Steam has been climbing over the past few years and not slowly either, that's mostly just hyperbole on your part, any smart business should look to expand outside of it's bread-and-butter market which is exactly what valve has and will continue to attempt.
World of WarCraft however is on the decline, it's still a very profitable game or heck, even the most profitable game ever made, but that won't last forever. :)
Plenty of PC only developers, lots of kickstarter projects, lots of mods that are being turned into full fledged games that are PC only, lets not forget PC games are cheaper, look better, sound better, run smoother and have a better and a larger choice of controls too! Entire genre's of games are pretty much non-existent on consoles, all genre's are pretty much readily available on PC.
Of course, some people have specific reasons for choosing a particular platform, mostly just personal tastes and all.
Well, Nintendo hasn't left their bread & butter market & it has gone well for them. You never (legally) see Nintendo's stuff on any other platform but Nintendo's. They don't entertain PCs or smartphones or none of that. They stick with their own platform to sell their games & nothing but. It doesn't get any more confident than that. Those rare times you saw Nintendo's stuff outside of Nintendo's platforms (the pre-Famicom/NES days & the CD-i), quality was HORRIBLE! I believe Nintendo made Ocarina of Time so good because last time a Zelda game was out we heard this:
The Steam Box just doesn't make sense really. Valve pretty much already has their own virtual console (no trademark infringement intended ) so why do they need to create a physical console for it? And on that point why build a console in the first place if they already have a physical machine—the PC—to host that Steam service to begin with? Shouldn't they be more concerned with bringing players over to the PC instead of making a console that might not get them there?
Listen, I have used Steam before. Nice service. Lots of games to choose from. Decent prices. My cousin got me to use it this summer. It's a great option for videogaming. They're already on the smartphones & tablets—a natural fit being that those devices are the new PC market. Why did Valve put it on the PS3 though? Doesn't the PS3 already have an online service. the PlayStation Network? Is Valve trying to turn the console into a PC? Keyboard & mouse controls for Counter-Strike: Global Offensive through Steam?? Seems strange to me all this hanging around consoles from these PC guys. Especially if PC's supposed to be the superior platform.
It's been about 10 years for World of Warcraft so no surprise it's slowing down. But one thing I'll say PC games can do better than console games is draw out the life of the game to the nth degree. Mods & expansions can keep a game going for years & years before they have to release the TRUE sequel.
I hear you on the Kickstarter thing, the range of genres & all that but here's my question. If PC games are cheaper, look better, sound better, run smoother, & have a better & larger choice of controls... ...then why do consoles exist?
If PC is superior, why do consoles exist? Why haven't consoles ended up like the 8-track by now? At the end of the day, the traditional desktop PC is a work device. It comes from the office world. You sit upright in a stiff computer chair & look at an upright monitor with arms cocked at about 90° to type on the keyboard. With TV & computer monitor merging (inevitably) over the years this is alleviated somewhat but the PC just doesn't scream FUN. The laptop is not comfortable for gaming with its flatter set-in buttons that can cause you more mistakes than the desktop keyboards. Laptop is a portable work device & while it can be more fun than a desktop based on its portability, it's still awkward with that big hot lower half with all the buttons.
The new PC, the tablets, remedies a lot of this. They look more fun, they're less awkward, & they're easier to carry around. A console-ized PC I like to call them. They have other problems like being TOO optimum in design which over time won't allow the game design to change. On the small tablets known as the smartphones, games are compromised by the primary function of smartphones: To make calls. And the business model of the games on this market is not as stable as it seems to be.
The console exists because it still has a purpose. That's why it survived the 1980s. That's why it survives in the 2010s. And the one who makes sure the console has a purpose is none other than Nintendo.
I see your PC Gaming Alliance charts on the current year when Nintendo is coming out of a slump (and still Nintendo puts together $7.6 billion in revenues matching Sony's & Microsoft's numbers) but I have shown my work here with Mario Kart Wii alone. In the earlier post you responded to here I broke down (I should say dismantled) that $20 billion/1 billion people stat as I compared it to Nintendo's 2007 & 2008 fiscal years. I notice they represent the consoles with Halo 4 & try to juxtapose themselves against that to look big. How about they put some Wii Sports or even Wii Play against those PC numbers? How about Wii Fit? How about Mario Kart Wii? How about some New Super Mario Bros. Wii? How about some Nintendogs? Hell put some Brain Age on that sucker. Some Pokémon Diamond & Pearl. Shoot even put some Super Smash Bros. Brawl on it.
They won't do that 'cause they'll be EMBARRASSED if they do that. Nintendo with one title alone can smash their BEST representative. But Nintendo has all these monsters all to themselves. Put 'em all together & Nintendo alone can make the PC game world look wannabe. Wait until the Wii U gets off the rocky road. They'll be back to fiscal 2007 & 2008 in no time. And they will even surpass it!
Pemalite said: And lastly, Valve doesn't give out any numbers on the amount of games sold or the profits from each game sold (Neither does EA with Origin or Ubisoft with uPlay), hence that 20 billion number is probably incredibly inaccurate.
That's what gets me. If it's such a strong platform then why not publicize your power? Show the world why they would want to bring their games to Steam. To be fair none of these online marketplaces share their info INCLUDING Nintendo with their DSiWare/WiiWare/eShop situations. But I would think Valve would do it just to show the strength of the PC games market while showing that Valve rules a big part of that market.
A lot of smoke & mirrors going on here & I don't trust it. All I can go on is behaviors & the PC guys keep showing me behaviors that they are not really as confident in their platform as they seem. They just keep coming back to the consoles one way or another. The mathematical/logical breakdowns I exampled in this post & the one replying to richardhutnik most likely explain why they do. John Lucas
Here's my theory, one that will never be confirmed of course because this information will never be public but regardless. My thoughts are that Sony and MS saw Nintendo put their system on the market, and they got flustered and rushed to designing a new system. 2011 was right when they started profiting on the PS3/360 with no signs of sales faltering, had it gone their way they would have kept it up for another 3-5 years. It didn't go their way, and 3 months after that inspiring speech of continuing to make the impossible possible, they did, by revealing the Wii U and throwing their competition a curveball out of nowhere. Sure Cerny said they've been planning it since 08 but I don't buy that and there's a difference between the conceptual stage and actually starting R&D, something tells me that bit began for both MS and Sony in 2011. They rushed to not let themselves get beaten to the market badly and both designed something easy for them, a laptop/budget pc with their firmware and sent it through testing. These consoles are clearly rushed, as has been the software. Looking at their displays this year objectively. These surprise announcements 6 months before release, last second hardware changes (not policies), nothing ready for e3. News of Xbox One cases MELTING! and them having to underclock the CPU and that's why they've been slowly increasing it bit by bit.
These aren't consoles, they are laptops chopped in half and put in custom boxes. They push and push to make things seem better for them than they really are, and again Sony is offering false promises. Does nobody remember PS3 launch or the PS2 with Toy Story Graphics? Deep Down has since been confirmed to have been a CG render, despite them saying on stage it was running in real time on the PS4, when they didn't even have devkits ready until Gamescom! As well as everything at e3 running on PCs with higher graphical fidelity than the systems themselves. They are throwing a whole bunch of CG at us and hoping we don't notice again when the console comes out. It'll bite them in the ass though. Early adopters will be fooled, but that's only 2 million or so users.
I had to capsulize this part of what you said, nin10do.
I have said that sentiment all over this thread. Nintendo launched early to force Sony's & Microsoft's hands.
That announcement of Wii's successor WAS abrupt. It was so abrupt it pissed off some of Wii's fans like me & Gamerace. But Nintendo did it because they knew it would break Sony & Microsoft. They spent the entire generation catching up to Wii & then Wii goes on to Wii U all of a sudden. They had just started on the path to profitability with those consoles & then Nintendo starts a new generation.
Nintendo knew that Sony & Microsoft couldn't let Nintendo get a whole generation to itself uncontested as powerful as Nintendo is. But they also knew that Sony & Microsoft would worry that they couldn't max out on the PS3 & 360. On top of that Nintendo knew that these guys couldn't really push power power power as a selling feature anymore so they wouldn't know about how to promote their consoles. A hell of a dilemma Nintendo put those guys in.
The result is "We gotta put something out!" & then you get games freezing at E3. Hahahahahahaha!
I knew of this intuitively & you just spelled it out in technical terms.
Wii U has all the power it needs. And most importantly it's EFFICIENT power. But that's exactly why you're hearing so much propaganda from the 3rd party against Wii U. They know Nintendo's about to raze their house. I said in this thread many times that Wii was the olive branch. But Wii U is the nasty one. Wii U won't ask the 3rd party to come aboard. It will FORCE them to come aboard.
Gamecraft matters this generation. Not CG. Not weak slapped together PC architectures. Gamecraft. Nintendo will make the impossible possible. They will bring UNITY to this videogame world once again. John Lucas
Haha, thanks for holding the fort while I was away, I'll tag in now. I've been doublechecking numbers, and verifying my theories with something much more knowledgeable in computers than myself, and I think I'll get to posting what I sent you in the PMs, with more data to support it and even an irrelevant video that just so happened to get uploaded a few hours ago talking about the Xbox One and PS4's power, by 2 more people with technical prowess that just happily coincides with me getting the info ready. Be warned, you'll be here for a while (Why not listen to this while you read) So let's begin, I'll start with the contents of the PM:
That was a few weeks back now, and at the time was more of a theory, now it's more than that. First off, let's talk about the XBO/PS4. No doubt you've seen the mentions of Battlefield 4 on the PS4, but there's also Killer Instinct on the Xbox One, a fighting game runnng at 720p. Here's that video I mentioned, you could watch the first 10 minutes, it gets the main point across: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdaCxtDg1qA
So if you watched all the way you'll see what was mentioned, if not I'll summarize. It quotes a KI developer talking about the game, and when asked about the resolution he says it technically runs at 720p 60FPS and anything that drops the framerate or resolution is removed or optimized. This is a launch downloadable title. Even if it was retail, w/e they are hitting walls. He goes on to mention what I've been saying for the longest, there's no progression with these systems. Bare in mind this dude is unbiased and knows his stuff. Moreso than I can say. He also mentions that it's incredibly bad that they are hitting walls before launch and the results aren't that great, and maybe the Wii U isn't that far behind as everyone expects, despite the RAM.
Now there's the CPU. So on the discussion of power someone with more technical prowess gave their thoughts:
The Wii U's CPU has a 4-stage pipeline. Running above 1 GHz with a 4-stage pipeline is very impressive. The Jaguar CPU has up to a 14-stage pipeline. These Jaguar CPUs are capable of a much higher clock rate than 1.5 GHz. Each core in the Wii U's CPU is at least twice as powerful as each Jaguar core due to being far more efficient with clock rates. The only difference here is that the PS4 and XB1 have 8 cores and not 6.
Trying to put the 4-stage to 14-stage pipeline into simple comparison. Saying the Wii U's CPU runs at 1.2GHz, it takes 3 nanoseconds for an operation to complete. Using the figure of the XB1 CPU running at 1.75GHz, it takes 8 nanoseconds for an operation to complete.The reason for more stages in a pipeline is that the next operation typically completes .87 nanoseconds later for the Wii U and .57 nanoseconds later for the XB1. The problem is that there are these conditional branch operations, all of the flow control and logic functions. If the next operation in the pipeline is not the correct operation, the next operation starts at stage 1 on the next clock cycle, leaving the next 13 hertz wasted. It doesn't sound like much, but these are among the most common statements handled in a CPU.
As far as RAM, the Jaguar cores use an x86 based instruction set. It needs 8GB of RAM because x86 is not as efficient as newer instruction sets. The engineers can't fix this because it would break backwards compatibility on PCs.
My opinion is that the Wii U is more efficient with its resources than the XB1 and PS4. That bandwidth the Wii U has will have smaller objects passed across it than what the XB1 will have, permitting more objects to move on the Wii U. The Wii U's CPU will have very few wasted clock cycles compared the the PS4/XB1 CPUs.
Just because the PS4/XB1 CPUs are 8 core and run 1.5~1.75 GHz does not mean that every hertz will be fully used. Even with multi-threading and multi-tasking, all 8 cores will never be used to max capabilities. That is functionally impossible. The reason for 8 cores, and the GDDR5 RAM on the PS4, is to provide enough slack to compensate for performance impacts. The GDDR5 RAM may have the capability of transferring X GB/s of data, but the real numbers the engineers want is the quantity of times per second the RAM is accessed and how large of an object can be sent in one transfer. Something extra, that 0.3 TFLOPS rating for the Wii U's GPU is likely the GPGPU's performance, not the graphics rendering performance.
This was the beginning. The biggest question is x86 vs PowerPC. He gave me some insight on that:
x86
The x86 instruction code was designed back in the 1970s when RAM was very limited, 1024 to like 4086 bytes of RAM. It used variable length instruction code to be space efficient in RAM. This was fine when the CPU was 8 bit. Going into 16 bit and 32 bit, the RAM size moved up to 65,536 bytes and then 2 million bytes. Further, the first chip did not have expansion libraries, but only restricted to a library of 127 functions on the CPU, because one bit in the first byte on x86 (the operation to perform) was 0 if in the primary 127 functions or 1 if it wasn't. When the 286 came out, extended functions required a second byte to fetch for operation code.
Intel never intended for x86 to live past the 1990s. They developed the Itanium instruction code to replace it. When I get to megahertz myth, I will explain that. x86 was designed for small systems, which today are appliances. It was efficient in early models, but not these advanced systems of today.
PowerPC
IBM developed POWERPC in the 1990s, 2 decades after x86. Systems have evolved, and this newer architecture takes advantage of it. The reason why I put POWERPC in caps here is because it really is an acronym. To be short, POWERPC is RISC design, Reduced Instruction Set Computer, built for performance.
For POWERPC, instruction code is fixed width, 32bit for most POWERPC CPUs, like the Wii U. This takes less clock cycles to fetch instructions. It requires less memory usage. Overall, requires less power for the CPU and cooler temperatures. This gives room for higher clock speeds and allowing multiple instruction operations per clock cycle.
Another part with POWERPC CPUs, many are not backwards compatible because IBM's engineers may adjust the instruction library to be more efficient to process in the CPU.
Overall, POWERPC is more powerful than x86 with current systems by a long shot by not requiring as much resources per instruction to perform operations.
So I presented him with my theory from the PM, and well:
Developers, like managers, can exaggerate. They do so to justify a budget and the need of so many employees. Using multiple speed RAM is a matter of resource allocation, which is not that hard to handle.
The Wii U follows the design of the Gamecube. It is not as hard to develop as said.
x86 is very inefficient today. It was efficient back when it was made for cheap 4-bit and 8-bit systems.
The Wii U uses less RAM and loses less cycles than the XB1 and PS4. Smaller is better, as clock rate is govern by speed of light.
The overclocking statement is a misunderstanding. If the Wii U CPU is able to reach higher clock rates, it is really underclocked, not overclocked. The CPU may have power states that reduce the clock rate and shut down extra units when not needed. The guy who said the clock rate is 1.2 GHz may not have pushed the system to go to full power or did not know the instruction to force full power state. He was probing around, not working with a manual.
All of this supports my admittedly originally half baked theory, well not anymore. Of course my word isn't everything, just watch that video I linked, the caps are being hit on the PS4/XBO. Bayonetta, the first obviously graphically intenstive game coming out of Nintendo is going to be at 1080p 60FPS. There's no dicking around on that one. It's not a racer or a fighter or with simple textures/models. It's a full blown game with great performance at year 2, with the consoles shipping at their max potential what excuse is there for Killer Instinct? For Knack at 720p, and Killzone at 30FPS with dips, Ryse looking like a buggy mess with dips as well. AC4 at 30FPS aiming for 1080p. At stated before, graphics don't matter too much, neither does power in general, but let's put that aside since you are all so insistent. What does this show? This is year 2, hell I wouldn't even say that since the devs had pushbacks due to understaffing, even then what's Mario Kart, at just over a year with 1080p 60FPS with 2 player Split screen ready at e3, and with them aiming for 4 player splitscreen 60FPS native 1080p. Battlefield struggling to do 720p and with unsatisfactory visuals. What say you of this?
Here's my theory, one that will never be confirmed of course because this information will never be public but regardless. My thoughts are that Sony and MS saw Nintendo put their system on the market, and they got flustered and rushed to designing a new system. 2011 was right when they started profiting on the PS3/360 with no signs of sales faltering, had it gone their way they would have kept it up for another 3-5 years. It didn't go their way, and 3 months after that inspiring speech of continuing to make the impossible possible, they did, by revealing the Wii U and throwing their competition a curveball out of nowhere. Sure Cerny said they've been planning it since 08 but I don't buy that and there's a difference between the conceptual stage and actually starting R&D, something tells me that bit began for both MS and Sony in 2011. They rushed to not let themselves get beaten to the market badly and both designed something easy for them, a laptop/budget pc with their firmware and sent it through testing. These consoles are clearly rushed, as has been the software. Looking at their displays this year objectively. These surprise announcements 6 months before release, last second hardware changes (not policies), nothing ready for e3. News of Xbox One cases MELTING! and them having to underclock the CPU and that's why they've been slowly increasing it bit by bit.
These aren't consoles, they are laptops chopped in half and put in custom boxes. They push and push to make things seem better for them than they really are, and again Sony is offering false promises. Does nobody remember PS3 launch or the PS2 with Toy Story Graphics? Deep Down has since been confirmed to have been a CG render, despite them saying on stage it was running in real time on the PS4, when they didn't even have devkits ready until Gamescom! As well as everything at e3 running on PCs with higher graphical fidelity than the systems themselves. They are throwing a whole bunch of CG at us and hoping we don't notice again when the console comes out. It'll bite them in the ass though. Early adopters will be fooled, but that's only 2 million or so users.
These systems are static, but Wii U is growing, day by day, week by week, month by month, year by year. Sure, 2013 they'll have the upper hand, but what about next year? Wii U will intensify while the others stay in the same spot. Maybe they'll take holiday 2014 graphics as well, but after that? No I think that's when it's going to be an issue for them. By holiday 2014 it'll be clear to the general public the Wii U is taking the lead through performance in games, but in 2015 it will be known to everyone which system is on top. The Wii U is the only true console in the 8th gen, but not only that it is the perfect console by design. It follows the greatness of the Wii, and expands on that with the ultimate peripheral, the U pad. Build for the so called "hardcore" gamer. Rather, the core gamer. Sure you can say other systems can do it, but technically an SNES controller can do anything current systems can do, just use the bumpers to cycle between what the buttons can do. It just wouldn't be very efficient. That's what the Wii U is all about, from the software, to the hardware, and most importantly the peripheral, the U pad. Dual screens were the same thing, why do I need them? Well after you use them on a DS it becomes clear, it makes games a lot better to have that dual screen. Even if it's a simple thing like a mini map in Kart. No, not all games require it, a Platformer won't make much use of it, but now with the gamepad you aren't being held back, so you can still do anything other controllers can do and then some. Sure, Wonderful 101 could be done on a standard controller, but as reviews have stated, the stick isn't as good as using the gamepad. That style of game wouldn't have been made for regular controllers because they don't offer the complete functionality of the pad. Mario games won't need the gamepad but Zelda games gain a lot out of it. As does Pikmin and so will Metroid.
The Gamepad makes the system what it is, and without it, it'd just be another HD box to join the fray. With it, you can play games like never before. That's what will lead it to victory, it truly is Unique, while PS4/XBO are more of the same, without reason to buy it. Their online isn't any better, that's a misconception. It's simply a matter of features, the XBO won't offer anything that the 360 doesn't, it's the same Xbox LIVE, same with PSN, the only difference is an OS improvement. You can't say the Wii U is lacking online because it doesn't have some of the social features, which is something we know Nintendo is fixing and the unified account system for the Wii U and 3DS will likely drop before the WWHD bundle or in early October, the second update. The Wii U has just as capable online infastructure, thanks to the help of EA, which goes against the naysay from a certain completely irrelevant company, in which Nintendo had EA help them with the online infrastucture.
This system is not only plenty powerful for the average consumer (about 99% of us), it's much more efficient than the PS4 and Xbox One and it will blow them away, not for the superior power, but for the unique exclusive gameplay experiences while still offering what you already love.
Oh boy...oh boy....oh man....
if that's really the truth.....then I must admit I feel a bit sorry for both Microsoft and Sony....these poor giants....
But what I REALLY found IMPRESSIVE: The WiiU has the potential to DO BETTER GRAPHICS THAN PS4/XB1???!!!
HOLY F****** S*** !!!!
If that comes out....if it's mostly noticed in 2015....there is gonna be a HUUUUUUUUUGE HUUUUUGE HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE MELTDOWN!!!!
OH MY GOSH!!!
What's going on with that curious console??! What is this system!????! What is this?!?!? What the F*** did I buy there at launch???!!!! Does it have secret Nintendo-magic in there or why is it so good, so awesome??!! man.....man.....man......sorry for my current behavior here, but.....
I'm just so fully hyped at the moment....oh man, oh man....
This just now blew my mind....
NOW NINTENDOMINATION IS REALLY CONFIRMED!!!
That's just......I can't describe it....
Edit(now I'm calm again ;P):
By the way: Now this fact would also explain why Nintendo is selling the WiiU at a LOSS. As johnlucas said...components just weren't cheap enough..that's why the price cut will come not until September, following Europe at the beginning of October...It is not just gamepad....actually I think this new controller isn't THAT expensive...well, it was apparently the EFFICIENT hardware that added extra cost...
Haha, thanks for holding the fort while I was away, I'll tag in now. I've been doublechecking numbers, and verifying my theories with something much more knowledgeable in computers than myself, and I think I'll get to posting what I sent you in the PMs, with more data to support it and even an irrelevant video that just so happened to get uploaded a few hours ago talking about the Xbox One and PS4's power, by 2 more people with technical prowess that just happily coincides with me getting the info ready. Be warned, you'll be here for a while (Why not listen to this while you read) So let's begin, I'll start with the contents of the PM:
That was a few weeks back now, and at the time was more of a theory, now it's more than that. First off, let's talk about the XBO/PS4. No doubt you've seen the mentions of Battlefield 4 on the PS4, but there's also Killer Instinct on the Xbox One, a fighting game runnng at 720p. Here's that video I mentioned, you could watch the first 10 minutes, it gets the main point across: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdaCxtDg1qA
So if you watched all the way you'll see what was mentioned, if not I'll summarize. It quotes a KI developer talking about the game, and when asked about the resolution he says it technically runs at 720p 60FPS and anything that drops the framerate or resolution is removed or optimized. This is a launch downloadable title. Even if it was retail, w/e they are hitting walls. He goes on to mention what I've been saying for the longest, there's no progression with these systems. Bare in mind this dude is unbiased and knows his stuff. Moreso than I can say. He also mentions that it's incredibly bad that they are hitting walls before launch and the results aren't that great, and maybe the Wii U isn't that far behind as everyone expects, despite the RAM.
Now there's the CPU. So on the discussion of power someone with more technical prowess gave their thoughts:
The Wii U's CPU has a 4-stage pipeline. Running above 1 GHz with a 4-stage pipeline is very impressive. The Jaguar CPU has up to a 14-stage pipeline. These Jaguar CPUs are capable of a much higher clock rate than 1.5 GHz. Each core in the Wii U's CPU is at least twice as powerful as each Jaguar core due to being far more efficient with clock rates. The only difference here is that the PS4 and XB1 have 8 cores and not 6.
Trying to put the 4-stage to 14-stage pipeline into simple comparison. Saying the Wii U's CPU runs at 1.2GHz, it takes 3 nanoseconds for an operation to complete. Using the figure of the XB1 CPU running at 1.75GHz, it takes 8 nanoseconds for an operation to complete.The reason for more stages in a pipeline is that the next operation typically completes .87 nanoseconds later for the Wii U and .57 nanoseconds later for the XB1. The problem is that there are these conditional branch operations, all of the flow control and logic functions. If the next operation in the pipeline is not the correct operation, the next operation starts at stage 1 on the next clock cycle, leaving the next 13 hertz wasted. It doesn't sound like much, but these are among the most common statements handled in a CPU.
As far as RAM, the Jaguar cores use an x86 based instruction set. It needs 8GB of RAM because x86 is not as efficient as newer instruction sets. The engineers can't fix this because it would break backwards compatibility on PCs.
My opinion is that the Wii U is more efficient with its resources than the XB1 and PS4. That bandwidth the Wii U has will have smaller objects passed across it than what the XB1 will have, permitting more objects to move on the Wii U. The Wii U's CPU will have very few wasted clock cycles compared the the PS4/XB1 CPUs.
Just because the PS4/XB1 CPUs are 8 core and run 1.5~1.75 GHz does not mean that every hertz will be fully used. Even with multi-threading and multi-tasking, all 8 cores will never be used to max capabilities. That is functionally impossible. The reason for 8 cores, and the GDDR5 RAM on the PS4, is to provide enough slack to compensate for performance impacts. The GDDR5 RAM may have the capability of transferring X GB/s of data, but the real numbers the engineers want is the quantity of times per second the RAM is accessed and how large of an object can be sent in one transfer. Something extra, that 0.3 TFLOPS rating for the Wii U's GPU is likely the GPGPU's performance, not the graphics rendering performance.
This was the beginning. The biggest question is x86 vs PowerPC. He gave me some insight on that:
x86
The x86 instruction code was designed back in the 1970s when RAM was very limited, 1024 to like 4086 bytes of RAM. It used variable length instruction code to be space efficient in RAM. This was fine when the CPU was 8 bit. Going into 16 bit and 32 bit, the RAM size moved up to 65,536 bytes and then 2 million bytes. Further, the first chip did not have expansion libraries, but only restricted to a library of 127 functions on the CPU, because one bit in the first byte on x86 (the operation to perform) was 0 if in the primary 127 functions or 1 if it wasn't. When the 286 came out, extended functions required a second byte to fetch for operation code.
Intel never intended for x86 to live past the 1990s. They developed the Itanium instruction code to replace it. When I get to megahertz myth, I will explain that. x86 was designed for small systems, which today are appliances. It was efficient in early models, but not these advanced systems of today.
PowerPC
IBM developed POWERPC in the 1990s, 2 decades after x86. Systems have evolved, and this newer architecture takes advantage of it. The reason why I put POWERPC in caps here is because it really is an acronym. To be short, POWERPC is RISC design, Reduced Instruction Set Computer, built for performance.
For POWERPC, instruction code is fixed width, 32bit for most POWERPC CPUs, like the Wii U. This takes less clock cycles to fetch instructions. It requires less memory usage. Overall, requires less power for the CPU and cooler temperatures. This gives room for higher clock speeds and allowing multiple instruction operations per clock cycle.
Another part with POWERPC CPUs, many are not backwards compatible because IBM's engineers may adjust the instruction library to be more efficient to process in the CPU.
Overall, POWERPC is more powerful than x86 with current systems by a long shot by not requiring as much resources per instruction to perform operations.
So I presented him with my theory from the PM, and well:
Developers, like managers, can exaggerate. They do so to justify a budget and the need of so many employees. Using multiple speed RAM is a matter of resource allocation, which is not that hard to handle.
The Wii U follows the design of the Gamecube. It is not as hard to develop as said.
x86 is very inefficient today. It was efficient back when it was made for cheap 4-bit and 8-bit systems.
The Wii U uses less RAM and loses less cycles than the XB1 and PS4. Smaller is better, as clock rate is govern by speed of light.
The overclocking statement is a misunderstanding. If the Wii U CPU is able to reach higher clock rates, it is really underclocked, not overclocked. The CPU may have power states that reduce the clock rate and shut down extra units when not needed. The guy who said the clock rate is 1.2 GHz may not have pushed the system to go to full power or did not know the instruction to force full power state. He was probing around, not working with a manual.
All of this supports my admittedly originally half baked theory, well not anymore. Of course my word isn't everything, just watch that video I linked, the caps are being hit on the PS4/XBO. Bayonetta, the first obviously graphically intenstive game coming out of Nintendo is going to be at 1080p 60FPS. There's no dicking around on that one. It's not a racer or a fighter or with simple textures/models. It's a full blown game with great performance at year 2, with the consoles shipping at their max potential what excuse is there for Killer Instinct? For Knack at 720p, and Killzone at 30FPS with dips, Ryse looking like a buggy mess with dips as well. AC4 at 30FPS aiming for 1080p. At stated before, graphics don't matter too much, neither does power in general, but let's put that aside since you are all so insistent. What does this show? This is year 2, hell I wouldn't even say that since the devs had pushbacks due to understaffing, even then what's Mario Kart, at just over a year with 1080p 60FPS with 2 player Split screen ready at e3, and with them aiming for 4 player splitscreen 60FPS native 1080p. Battlefield struggling to do 720p and with unsatisfactory visuals. What say you of this?
Here's my theory, one that will never be confirmed of course because this information will never be public but regardless. My thoughts are that Sony and MS saw Nintendo put their system on the market, and they got flustered and rushed to designing a new system. 2011 was right when they started profiting on the PS3/360 with no signs of sales faltering, had it gone their way they would have kept it up for another 3-5 years. It didn't go their way, and 3 months after that inspiring speech of continuing to make the impossible possible, they did, by revealing the Wii U and throwing their competition a curveball out of nowhere. Sure Cerny said they've been planning it since 08 but I don't buy that and there's a difference between the conceptual stage and actually starting R&D, something tells me that bit began for both MS and Sony in 2011. They rushed to not let themselves get beaten to the market badly and both designed something easy for them, a laptop/budget pc with their firmware and sent it through testing. These consoles are clearly rushed, as has been the software. Looking at their displays this year objectively. These surprise announcements 6 months before release, last second hardware changes (not policies), nothing ready for e3. News of Xbox One cases MELTING! and them having to underclock the CPU and that's why they've been slowly increasing it bit by bit.
These aren't consoles, they are laptops chopped in half and put in custom boxes. They push and push to make things seem better for them than they really are, and again Sony is offering false promises. Does nobody remember PS3 launch or the PS2 with Toy Story Graphics? Deep Down has since been confirmed to have been a CG render, despite them saying on stage it was running in real time on the PS4, when they didn't even have devkits ready until Gamescom! As well as everything at e3 running on PCs with higher graphical fidelity than the systems themselves. They are throwing a whole bunch of CG at us and hoping we don't notice again when the console comes out. It'll bite them in the ass though. Early adopters will be fooled, but that's only 2 million or so users.
These systems are static, but Wii U is growing, day by day, week by week, month by month, year by year. Sure, 2013 they'll have the upper hand, but what about next year? Wii U will intensify while the others stay in the same spot. Maybe they'll take holiday 2014 graphics as well, but after that? No I think that's when it's going to be an issue for them. By holiday 2014 it'll be clear to the general public the Wii U is taking the lead through performance in games, but in 2015 it will be known to everyone which system is on top. The Wii U is the only true console in the 8th gen, but not only that it is the perfect console by design. It follows the greatness of the Wii, and expands on that with the ultimate peripheral, the U pad. Build for the so called "hardcore" gamer. Rather, the core gamer. Sure you can say other systems can do it, but technically an SNES controller can do anything current systems can do, just use the bumpers to cycle between what the buttons can do. It just wouldn't be very efficient. That's what the Wii U is all about, from the software, to the hardware, and most importantly the peripheral, the U pad. Dual screens were the same thing, why do I need them? Well after you use them on a DS it becomes clear, it makes games a lot better to have that dual screen. Even if it's a simple thing like a mini map in Kart. No, not all games require it, a Platformer won't make much use of it, but now with the gamepad you aren't being held back, so you can still do anything other controllers can do and then some. Sure, Wonderful 101 could be done on a standard controller, but as reviews have stated, the stick isn't as good as using the gamepad. That style of game wouldn't have been made for regular controllers because they don't offer the complete functionality of the pad. Mario games won't need the gamepad but Zelda games gain a lot out of it. As does Pikmin and so will Metroid.
The Gamepad makes the system what it is, and without it, it'd just be another HD box to join the fray. With it, you can play games like never before. That's what will lead it to victory, it truly is Unique, while PS4/XBO are more of the same, without reason to buy it. Their online isn't any better, that's a misconception. It's simply a matter of features, the XBO won't offer anything that the 360 doesn't, it's the same Xbox LIVE, same with PSN, the only difference is an OS improvement. You can't say the Wii U is lacking online because it doesn't have some of the social features, which is something we know Nintendo is fixing and the unified account system for the Wii U and 3DS will likely drop before the WWHD bundle or in early October, the second update. The Wii U has just as capable online infastructure, thanks to the help of EA, which goes against the naysay from a certain completely irrelevant company, in which Nintendo had EA help them with the online infrastucture.
This system is not only plenty powerful for the average consumer (about 99% of us), it's much more efficient than the PS4 and Xbox One and it will blow them away, not for the superior power, but for the unique exclusive gameplay experiences while still offering what you already love.
Oh boy...oh boy....oh man....
if that's really the truth.....then I must admit I feel a bit sorry for both Microsoft and Sony....these poor giants....
But what I REALLY found IMPRESSIVE: The WiiU has the potential to DO BETTER GRAPHICS THAN PS4/XB1???!!!
HOLY F****** S*** !!!!
If that comes out....if it's mostly noticed in 2015....there is gonna be a HUUUUUUUUUGE HUUUUUGE HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE MELTDOWN!!!!
OH MY GOSH!!!
What's going on with that curious console??! What is this system!????! What is this?!?!? What the F*** did I buy there at launch???!!!! Does it have secret Nintendo-magic in there or why is it so good, so awesome??!! man.....man.....man......sorry for my current behavior here, but.....
I'm just so fully hyped at the moment....oh man, oh man....
This just now blew my mind....
NOW NINTENDOMINATION IS REALLY CONFIRMED!!!
That's just......I can't describe it....
Edit(now I'm calm again ;P):
By the way: Now this fact would also explain why Nintendo is selling the WiiU at a LOSS. As johnlucas said...components just weren't cheap enough..that's why the price cut will come not until September, following Europe at the beginning of October...It is not just gamepad....actually I think this new controller isn't THAT expensive...well, it was apparently the EFFICIENT hardware that added extra cost...
So basically the only and debatable argument of Sony and MS fans will just fall flat on the ground when they realize that Ps4 and Xone are just a bunch of heavily inefficient and expensive duck taped hardware? and that the Wii U is way more efficient? oh boy, this winter and the entire year of 2014 will surely deliver.
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