People are buying into what he is saying though (Nintendo fans) perhaps because they're scared of the real outcome? Throwing away all logic and reason, heck he could be proclaiming WiiU is on track for 1 billion sales and the people agreeing with him wouldn't bat an eyelid by the looks of it.

At this point WiiU fans should just go enjoy their system rather than worry and fight over sales numbers, because it aint gonna happen for them.

Why is this still going?

It's a videogame console prediction. I can respect it, that doesn't mean I think it will happen. I think the Wii U can reach 10 million. Yeah, it's crazy but it could happen. You are not going to respect me for that?

So you can't respect him for his love of Nintendo? He might be biased but it's his prediction! Its crazy but you can respect it and disagree with it at the same time.

What I'm trying to say is that we should wait and see how it comes out. I don't think the gaming world is going to collapse, johnlucas was being kind of hyperbolic! If he is right, cool he proved his point! If not, well he lost to his prediction. There is no need to pick an argument with him, he will always respond the messages or reply.

Hey I found some old numbers and Sony shipped 30 million PS1s or so after the PS2's launch in Japan. Add 30 mil to both PS3 and 360 and the gens at 320 million console sales. 240 could be possible for Wii U...

In the end i dont really care who is going to come on top of this gen, all i want is to enjoy playing my Wii U with or without the major 3rd parties games.

A lot of gamers likes to argue about "this runs best on X" or "no no you wrong, it runs best on Y" and forget the whole point of playing video games: to have some fun.

So lets all grab our hands and sing how awesome these consoles are, no matter wich one you buy we are all good friends as it should be.

Well, I'm actually someone who like to come first from the "worst case"- scenario. So let's do it like this:

We're know at 3,91M sold Wii Us as of September 30th according to the latest financial results made public by Nintendo today. When the Wii U came out in mid-November(end Nov in EU and Dec in Jap.) it managed to do roughly 3 Million (shipped of course) until the end of the year 2012. So it did in about HALF OF Q4 2012 a little over 3 Million! Now, let's look at this holiday: I think you can presume they will also ship 3 M at the MINIMUM this quarter! It got not only a decent price cut by 50$/50€, but also have now the FULL MONTH OF OCTOBER and certainly a clearly BETTER HOLIDAY LINEUP THAN LAST YEAR. Look at releases liek Wii Party U, WW HD, Wii Fit, SM3DW and so on + 3rd Parties again just like last year! 

Thus 3 M will be DEFINITELY possible to reach which led you to a total of about 7 million by the end of 2013....but as I said that's the WORST case...so 8.5 should pretty much a given and with a bit luck it could even top the 10 million mark! (But let's agree with 9M :))

Until March 2014: Well, if Mario Kart comes out just in time it could do in Q1 2014 easily another 1 oder 1.5M AT THE LEAST...let's say 2M in reality and then we are already at 11 oder 12M =) 

If they managed to ship at the 349$-price 390.000 WiiUs in Q1 2013, then they could EASILY ship about 1-2M in Q1 2014 ESPECIALLY with DK AND MK8 AND at a pricepoint of 299$ together with the support of the evergreens Wii Party U, SM3DW and maybe also Wii Fit U !

About the 3DS: It's very appropiate to VGCs numbers, it lists 34.5M sold 3DSs by the end of September 28th so no worries =) 

No.
There's a difference between a natural ebb & an abrupt dropoff.

Every console ebbs eventually. It's inevitable in this transient business.
Even in its natural ebb it was still doing breakout numbers.
Wii's 2.4 million in December 2010 was the second biggest monthly home console sales in the 7th generation & the 3rd biggest monthly home console sales ever in videogame history.
Wii's 3.8 million in December 2009 was THE BIGGEST monthly sales ever—home OR handheld—& PS2's 2.7 million in December 2002 was the 2nd biggest monthly home console sales ever.

But when Nintendo pretty much moved all resources to Wii U in 2011 that's when Wii dropped off the cliff.
You could see the change starting in 2009 in the middle of the year.
Wii began to sell more like a normal console in that period compared to what it was doing before.
It dipped in the middle & picked up on the ends.
Same thing happened in 2010.
You can tell in hindsight that Nintendo was beginning to divert resources & attention to the making of the 3DS & Wii U during those dips.
They put focus back on Wii in the fall, ran the holidays, then went back to focusing on the coming 3DS & Wii U afterwards.

They stopped doing even that in 2011.
Kirby's Return to Dreamland & The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword were sendoff gifts.
Yeah they were big games but Nintendo did not have a strong campaign to move the system like they did in years past.
Those games were the kiss goodbye.

Why didn't they release a gold Wii alongside Skyward Sword instead of that Sky Blue one for Zelda 25th Anniversary?
Do you know how much gold Wiis would have sold???
They painted it red for SMB 25th & topped the competition. If they painted it gold for Zelda 25th AND had actual focus on Wii for a better part of the year, Wii would have trounced the HD Twins one more time that year.
Especially if they didn't make that godawful "Family Edition" Wii.

But I see EVEN YOU agree with me that Nintendo withdrew virtually all focus on Wii in 2011.
I have been saying this all over this thread.

If they maintained focus on this console, PS2's record would have been topped by Wii. EASILY.
But it's all good. They'll achieve that through Wii U, the one Wii they cannot deny.
John Lucas

3 million minimum? That's suggesting 750k in Nov and Dec NPD (Because US will be well over 50% of WiiU sales this holiday) which is somewhat believeable, but not a minimum. Also suggests Japan will do 750k and Europe 750k, which both seem too high.

You can barely call it a price cut, the baseline price of $300 is still the same. It didn't drop, it got a sku shuffle and more value added. Fact is cheapest you could buy a WiiU at launch was $300, cheapest you can buy one this holiday, is $300. Fact.

Full month of October, woohoo! That amounts to about 200k tops ....

Wii Party U and Wii Fit are pandering to an audience that no longer has interest in the Wii brand, they're not gonna chuck down $300 for Wii U Party ... just insane. 3rd Party games are thin on the ground. COD, Assassins Creed .... that's about it. The line up overall is incredibly weak in terms of system sellers. There is one and it's Mario 3D World.

8.5m pretty much a given? lol so 4.5m over the holiday, that's 2.3m in the US, 1.1m in Europe and 1.1m in Japan. Not happening.

Anything over that and I don't even need to disect it, it's a pipedream. But hey, why not 15m by the end of the year? It seems you don't need logic, you literally throw up whatever numbers you want it to do and think it's achieveable.

Ur denying the fact that Wii had strong first and third party support in 2009/2010 and still saw an annual drop of roughly 15% per year. Even if Wii was heavily supported in 2011 and onward it would have still dropped in sales each year. Lets assume it continued to drop roughly 15% per year.

2006-2010-82.1 million

2011-14.7 million

2012-12.5 million

2013-10.6 million

2014-9.0 million

2015-7.7 million

2016-6.5 million

2017-5.5 million

2018-4.7 million

2019-4.0 million

2020-3.4 million

2021-2.9 million

2022-2.5 million

2023-2.1 million

2024-1.8 million

2025-1.5 million

2026-1.3 million

Total-172.8 million

That means after 20 years Wii would have still failed to meet your goal by over 60 million.