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Forums - Gaming Discussion - UNITY - Nintendo & Wii U Finish The REVOLUTION

johnlucas on 30 October 2013
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
So let me get this straight, the only reason Wii didnt sell 240 million is because Nintendo pulled the plug on it in favor of the Wii U and now ur saying Wii U will sell 240 million and finish what Wii started.

In 3-4 years when a Wii U successor is announced and Wii U is nowhere close to those numbers will u simply say they pulled the plug on it in favor of the Revolution Part 3 and that it will sell 240 million?

Absurd isn't it?? Wii hit its peak in year 2/3 well before Nintendo gave up on it, sales were dwindling. Somehow Lucas either expected it to sell 15m a year consistantly up to 2020 or he expect a rise (somehow). Like I said, no logic involved at all.

The part that I find hilarious is he thinks It will take Wii U 3 years to sell 60m but it will sell 180m after that. If it sell an average of 20m a year starting in 2016 it wouldnt reach that number until 2024. Or if it sell an average of 30m a year it wouldnt reach 240m until 2021 and there is no way in hell Nintendo doesnt release a successor by then. If it follows a typical Nintendo cycle of 5-6 years it would have to sell about 60-90m per year starting in 2016.

But in all seriousness he makes Nintendo fans look bad. As u probably know im very optimistic about Wii Us future and in guessing at least 50% of my posts are explaining to people how Wii U has a strong chance of recovery. But I like to use past trends and actual data to support my arguments whereas he kinda lives in his own world and likes to grossly exaggerate almost every point he tries to make.


I make Nintendo fans look bad...
OK.

I must have made them look bad when I against so many doubters said that Wii would outsell the XBox 360 within the Summer specifically July.
I must have made them look bad when I against so many doubters said that Wii will sell 20 million worldwide by the end of 2007.
They ended up looking good because I called those things ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

Yeah I can understand why you think my arguments are ridiculous.
Sometimes you need to look BEYOND the data available.
Sometimes you need INTUITION & no intuition is not logical.
Logic is only ONE way of understanding the world.
Even scientists use intuition to know what leads to follow in an experiment.
Sometimes people know how things generally work without having the scientific explanation broken down for them.
They just know. It doesn't have to be explained.

There's more than the tale of the tape.
There's more than the spec sheets.
There's more than historical data even.
Those things help to get a fuller view but they are not the entire view.

There's nothing that could have prepared you for Wii's 3.8 million in December of 2009.
No historical data, no sales trends spreadsheets, nothing.
There's nothing that could have prepared you for Michael Jackson's record-selling Thriller.
The best you could come up with is "it's probably gonna do pretty good".
No, it did FAR MORE than "pretty good". It did ASTRONOMICAL.
Michael wrote over & over on his bathroom mirror "I will sell 20 million records. I will sell 20 million records."
His brother Jackie laughed this off & said he can't sell that many.

Even Michael in all his vision couldn't see how much he could sell from Thriller. Even 20 million was too low.
You look back at Off The Wall & you couldn't see Michael getting THIS big.
Off The Wall was amazing but the best-selling album of all time???

This is how phenomena work. That's why we're mesmerized by phenomena.

I tell you now zorg1000 not to get too attached past sales trends & available data to figure out this business.
You have to leave a little room for the impossible becoming possible.
You have to use your intuition & see what cannot be seen by normal eyes.

When 3DS struggled in 2011, you couldn't see it doing what's it's doing now.
Nobody thought Nintendo could come of the Gamecube era firing full power like they did with Wii.
Everything ain't on that paper.

When looking at a phenomenon your best bet is to trust your intuition.
A phenomenon defies logic by definition.

Wii U will explode EXPONENTIALLY on the sales charts & maybe you'll just have to see it to believe it.
In the end you doggone sure will believe it.
John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

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zorg1000 on 30 October 2013
johnlucas said:
zorg1000 said:
Seece said:
zorg1000 said:
So let me get this straight, the only reason Wii didnt sell 240 million is because Nintendo pulled the plug on it in favor of the Wii U and now ur saying Wii U will sell 240 million and finish what Wii started.

In 3-4 years when a Wii U successor is announced and Wii U is nowhere close to those numbers will u simply say they pulled the plug on it in favor of the Revolution Part 3 and that it will sell 240 million?

Absurd isn't it?? Wii hit its peak in year 2/3 well before Nintendo gave up on it, sales were dwindling. Somehow Lucas either expected it to sell 15m a year consistantly up to 2020 or he expect a rise (somehow). Like I said, no logic involved at all.

The part that I find hilarious is he thinks It will take Wii U 3 years to sell 60m but it will sell 180m after that. If it sell an average of 20m a year starting in 2016 it wouldnt reach that number until 2024. Or if it sell an average of 30m a year it wouldnt reach 240m until 2021 and there is no way in hell Nintendo doesnt release a successor by then. If it follows a typical Nintendo cycle of 5-6 years it would have to sell about 60-90m per year starting in 2016.

But in all seriousness he makes Nintendo fans look bad. As u probably know im very optimistic about Wii Us future and in guessing at least 50% of my posts are explaining to people how Wii U has a strong chance of recovery. But I like to use past trends and actual data to support my arguments whereas he kinda lives in his own world and likes to grossly exaggerate almost every point he tries to make.


I make Nintendo fans look bad...
OK.

I must have made them look bad when I against so many doubters said that Wii would outsell the XBox 360 within the Summer specifically July.
I must have made them look bad when I against so many doubters said that Wii will sell 20 million worldwide by the end of 2007.
They ended up looking good because I called those things ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

Yeah I can understand why you think my arguments are ridiculous.
Sometimes you need to look BEYOND the data available.
Sometimes you need INTUITION & no intuition is not logical.
Logic is only ONE way of understanding the world.
Even scientists use intuition to know what leads to follow in an experiment.
Sometimes people know how things generally work without having the scientific explanation broken down for them.
They just know. It doesn't have to be explained.

There's more than the tale of the tape.
There's more than the spec sheets.
There's more than historical data even.
Those things help to get a fuller view but they are not the entire view.

There's nothing that could have prepared you for Wii's 3.8 million in December of 2009.
No historical data, no sales trends spreadsheets, nothing.
There's nothing that could have prepared you for Michael Jackson's record-selling Thriller.
The best you could come up with is "it's probably gonna do pretty good".
No, it did FAR MORE than "pretty good". It did ASTRONOMICAL.
Michael wrote over & over on his bathroom mirror "I will sell 20 million records. I will sell 20 million records."
His brother Jackie laughed this off & said he can't sell that many.

Even Michael in all his vision couldn't see how much he could sell from Thriller. Even 20 million was too low.
You look back at Off The Wall & you couldn't see Michael getting THIS big.
Off The Wall was amazing but the best-selling album of all time???

This is how phenomena work. That's why we're mesmerized by phenomena.

I tell you now zorg1000 not to get too attached past sales trends & available data to figure out this business.
You have a little room for the impossible becoming possible.
You have to use your intuition & see what cannot be seen by normal eyes.

When 3DS struggled in 2011, you couldn't see it doing what's it's doing now.
Nobody thought Nintendo could come of the Gamecube era firing full power like they did with Wii.
Everything ain't on that paper.

When looking at a phenomenon your best bet is to trust your intuition.
A phenomenon defies logic by definition.

Wii U will explode EXPONENTIALLY on the sales charts & maybe you'll just have to see it to believe it.
in the end you doggone sure will believe it.
John Lucas


Well that was an odd rant but ur wrong. I did see 3DS making a great comeback and I did think Wii was going to sell better than PS3/360 back at E3 2006. I also expect Wii U to have a very strong and healthy life but 240m is just not happening.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Torillian on 30 October 2013
johnlucas said:


You have reading comprehension problems.
I'll repost this excerpt here. Absorb its meaning.
PlayStation division posts losses, PS3, Vita sales lower than expected

The firm had originally forecast combined PS3/PS2 sales of 10 million for the entire year, but has so far only managed to shift 1.1 million.

Likewise, Sony has forecast 5 million Vita sales, but only managed to sell 600,000 in the three-month period ending June 30.

They're not gonna make it, brother.
I have been seeing the 360 at that same 78 million mark forever now.
Sony expected 10 million. They only got 1 million.

The 7th gen is declining. It's eroding. It's almost over.
Each passing year weakens the ability for the console to sell.

My "terrrrible" prediction of 240 million Wii lifetime sales minimum only failed because Nintendo MADE it fail.
They withdrew the console in its prime. They passed its power onto its successor who will capture that 240 million number.

Have any of my predictions come true?
How do you think I got this following here at VGChartz?
I detailed it at the opening post of this very thread.

I made my first post here on March 14, 2007 & immediately laughed off the popular opinion that Wii wouldn't beat the XBox 360 that year of 2007.
Not only did I say that Wii would beat the 360, I said it would beat the 360 within the SUMMER.
Not only did I say that but I ALSO said that Wii would sell 20 million worldwide by the end of 2007.

I was right on both counts.

Press Release: Nintendo Wii is market leader in home console business
Wow, that was fast: Wii outsells Xbox 360
Excerpt:

The report is based on sales figures from Enterbrain in Japan, NPD Group in the US and GfK of Germany, which tracks European sales. Sales figures from each console's launch date through the end of July (and the end of August in Japan) were added up, with the Wii just barely edging out the 360: 9 million for the Wii, 8.9 million for the 360, and 3.7 million for the PlayStation 3.

Nintendo: Wii at 20M, profits up by 96%
Nintendo Revises Forecasts/DS+Wii Sales News
Excerpt:

For the nine-month period ended December 31st 2007, Nintendo saw sales of the DS achieve 24.5 million units, leading to 64.79 million units for the handheld to-date. Worldwide Wii sales for the period achieved 14.29 million units, helping it to exceed 20 million since launch.

All this was said right in my very first post. And I said it in MARCH of 2007 when this wasn't so obvious to see.
Here's a recap just for you, Seece's Pieces.

johnlucas said at the very beginning of this thread:

A poster named PS4 had just made a post called "Worldwide Wii sales are now only 4 million behind Xbox 360 - closing the gap".
I had been lurking around the place for awhile looking for a good place to talk about videogame sales (this was much better than NextGenWars.com!).
After listening to so many folks doubting Wii's ability to surpass the XBox 360, I finally decide to say my piece:

"I'm laughing at all the posts that say Wii can't beat XBox 360 this year. LAUGHING! Have you people been paying attention to these charts? If VGCharts.org's figures are correct, Wii is gonna pass XBox 360 within the SUMMER! YES! They will surpass XBox 360 by the summer. XBox 360 has been at that 9 million mark for a while now while Wii seems to move a million a month!...

...In fact Wii has been underestimated on every level & THAT will be the mistake that will haunt the competition & the naysayers. It was played that way on purpose and we are seeing the results on the sales charts. I mean once Super Mario Galaxy comes out this holiday season & Nintendo unveils their full online playable titles we will be seeing NEW shortages & sellouts that will make Wii's representation on the charts baffling dumbfounding to disbelief! I predict by end of year we'll be seeing Wii be on its way to that 20 million mark probably even passed that. That is not hyperbole. Half a year they sell 10 million so why do you think the other half they can't sell 10 million? You know holiday sales give a little more oomph than rest of year, right?"

INSTANTLY this bold proclamation was challenged by a poster named The Source & I UNDERLINE my statement even further:

"Well that's what I'm proposing. I see Wii besting the 360 within the month of July. By August We will see Wii pulling ahead...

...But I guarantee you that we won't have to wait 'til fall to see Wii catching the 360. It will be the worldwide leader this summer I guarantee you. By holiday season will be start of its domination period which will carry it all the way through this generation as top system. By then it's not just gonna outsell the competition it's gonna overshadow the competition. You'll be seeing me on these boards, trust me. Just wait and see what the numbers say to see if I'm full of hot air or some other type of 'substance'. I call it for July. That's when we'll see Wii catch the 360. I call it for 20 million at Dec 31, 2007. That's the worldwide tally of sales for Wii. We'll just have to see if I'm right. I don't play the caution game when I see a sure thing. I don't like hedging bets. I'm very confident in my predictions."

John Lucas


You got internet famous off of the back of a fortunate Wii prediction that panned out.  Since then I've seen you make all kinds of ludicrous predictions about Nintendo taking over the world and doom and gloom for Playstation.  That Popzara article where you argued about PS3 dying off any time now back in 2009 or so is still one of the most embarassing things I've seen VGC publish.  So, out of curiosity, have you been right about a Sony based prediction ever?  And what's your record like for Nintendo ever since that one prediction that people love you for?  

Even if you end up right on this one, you shouldn't be lauded because you based it on a bunch of semi-religious ferver bullshit that shouldn't be rewarded instead of logic.  It's honestly quite disturbing to read.  



...

zorg1000 on 30 October 2013
Torillian said:
johnlucas said:


You have reading comprehension problems.
I'll repost this excerpt here. Absorb its meaning.
PlayStation division posts losses, PS3, Vita sales lower than expected

The firm had originally forecast combined PS3/PS2 sales of 10 million for the entire year, but has so far only managed to shift 1.1 million.

Likewise, Sony has forecast 5 million Vita sales, but only managed to sell 600,000 in the three-month period ending June 30.

They're not gonna make it, brother.
I have been seeing the 360 at that same 78 million mark forever now.
Sony expected 10 million. They only got 1 million.

The 7th gen is declining. It's eroding. It's almost over.
Each passing year weakens the ability for the console to sell.

My "terrrrible" prediction of 240 million Wii lifetime sales minimum only failed because Nintendo MADE it fail.
They withdrew the console in its prime. They passed its power onto its successor who will capture that 240 million number.

Have any of my predictions come true?
How do you think I got this following here at VGChartz?
I detailed it at the opening post of this very thread.

I made my first post here on March 14, 2007 & immediately laughed off the popular opinion that Wii wouldn't beat the XBox 360 that year of 2007.
Not only did I say that Wii would beat the 360, I said it would beat the 360 within the SUMMER.
Not only did I say that but I ALSO said that Wii would sell 20 million worldwide by the end of 2007.

I was right on both counts.

Press Release: Nintendo Wii is market leader in home console business
Wow, that was fast: Wii outsells Xbox 360
Excerpt:

The report is based on sales figures from Enterbrain in Japan, NPD Group in the US and GfK of Germany, which tracks European sales. Sales figures from each console's launch date through the end of July (and the end of August in Japan) were added up, with the Wii just barely edging out the 360: 9 million for the Wii, 8.9 million for the 360, and 3.7 million for the PlayStation 3.

Nintendo: Wii at 20M, profits up by 96%
Nintendo Revises Forecasts/DS+Wii Sales News
Excerpt:

For the nine-month period ended December 31st 2007, Nintendo saw sales of the DS achieve 24.5 million units, leading to 64.79 million units for the handheld to-date. Worldwide Wii sales for the period achieved 14.29 million units, helping it to exceed 20 million since launch.

All this was said right in my very first post. And I said it in MARCH of 2007 when this wasn't so obvious to see.
Here's a recap just for you, Seece's Pieces.

johnlucas said at the very beginning of this thread:

A poster named PS4 had just made a post called "Worldwide Wii sales are now only 4 million behind Xbox 360 - closing the gap".
I had been lurking around the place for awhile looking for a good place to talk about videogame sales (this was much better than NextGenWars.com!).
After listening to so many folks doubting Wii's ability to surpass the XBox 360, I finally decide to say my piece:

"I'm laughing at all the posts that say Wii can't beat XBox 360 this year. LAUGHING! Have you people been paying attention to these charts? If VGCharts.org's figures are correct, Wii is gonna pass XBox 360 within the SUMMER! YES! They will surpass XBox 360 by the summer. XBox 360 has been at that 9 million mark for a while now while Wii seems to move a million a month!...

...In fact Wii has been underestimated on every level & THAT will be the mistake that will haunt the competition & the naysayers. It was played that way on purpose and we are seeing the results on the sales charts. I mean once Super Mario Galaxy comes out this holiday season & Nintendo unveils their full online playable titles we will be seeing NEW shortages & sellouts that will make Wii's representation on the charts baffling dumbfounding to disbelief! I predict by end of year we'll be seeing Wii be on its way to that 20 million mark probably even passed that. That is not hyperbole. Half a year they sell 10 million so why do you think the other half they can't sell 10 million? You know holiday sales give a little more oomph than rest of year, right?"

INSTANTLY this bold proclamation was challenged by a poster named The Source & I UNDERLINE my statement even further:

"Well that's what I'm proposing. I see Wii besting the 360 within the month of July. By August We will see Wii pulling ahead...

...But I guarantee you that we won't have to wait 'til fall to see Wii catching the 360. It will be the worldwide leader this summer I guarantee you. By holiday season will be start of its domination period which will carry it all the way through this generation as top system. By then it's not just gonna outsell the competition it's gonna overshadow the competition. You'll be seeing me on these boards, trust me. Just wait and see what the numbers say to see if I'm full of hot air or some other type of 'substance'. I call it for July. That's when we'll see Wii catch the 360. I call it for 20 million at Dec 31, 2007. That's the worldwide tally of sales for Wii. We'll just have to see if I'm right. I don't play the caution game when I see a sure thing. I don't like hedging bets. I'm very confident in my predictions."

John Lucas


You got internet famous off of the back of a fortunate Wii prediction that panned out.  Since then I've seen you make all kinds of ludicrous predictions about Nintendo taking over the world and doom and gloom for Playstation.  That Popzara article where you argued about PS3 dying off any time now back in 2009 or so is still one of the most embarassing things I've seen VGC publish.  So, out of curiosity, have you been right about a Sony based prediction ever?  And what's your record like for Nintendo ever since that one prediction that people love you for?  

Even if you end up right on this one, you shouldn't be lauded because you based it on a bunch of semi-religious ferver bullshit that shouldn't be rewarded instead of logic.  It's honestly quite disturbing to read.  

I think this is where u put ur sunglasses on and walk off into the sunset



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

JoeTheBro on 30 October 2013
RedPikmin95 said:

Seems like Wii U sales stay rather constant since WW HD is released. Another 66k/67k-ish. Next week Wii Party U will be included, so let's see in what extent will this game contribute to the sales in the west =) And in the week after next week there several Wii U bundles will be released in Japan (on Oct 31st) + the releases of Wii Party U, Wii Sports Club AND Wii Fit U(Download, also in the west, and the Retail-version follows in Dec). -> Triple power in Japan =)
And then Black Friday in Nov followed by Christmas in Dec.
Will be very interesting in the upcoming days...

I stay with it: Wii U still has the potential to hit 10 million mark by the end of this year.


Eh I don't know. Back during summer it felt very possible with W101, Pikmin, WWHD, Wii Party U, Wii Fit U, Sonic, Mario & Sonic at the winter games, Donkey Kong, and 3D Mario. Well it's selling better now but nowhere close to 10 million better. The Wii U really only has 3D Mario as its last bump. Could that be enough to push 10 mil? Sadly I doubt it. I'd put its max sales by the end of the year at 8.5.



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Final-Fan on 30 October 2013
Seece said:
Final-Fan said:
Seece said:

lol indeed this is all very silly. I don't think PS360 owners would care if they were 40 mill sales off Wii, we got the vast majority of third party games this generation, that is all what matters to gamers.

No one cares about first party games?  ok

Each platform has first party games, only two have first + third (to any great degree) hence that's why gamers care, PS360 gamers didn't lose out.

You are not only exaggerating the lack of third parties on Nintendo hardware but ignoring the fact that not all first parties are equal



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johnlucas on 30 October 2013
zorg1000 said:

Well that was an odd rant but ur wrong. I did see 3DS making a great comeback and I did think Wii was going to sell better than PS3/360 back at E3 2006. I also expect Wii U to have a very strong and healthy life but 240m is just not happening.


"A great comeback" "To sell better" But what does that mean?
HOW great? HOW much better?
What number can you put to those vague terms?

When the PS2 came out did you think it would sell great?
If you did, did you see the PS2 selling 155 million great?

The Earth's population is 7 billion & growing.
Parts are Earth are bound by extreme poverty & war-torn environments so you can't count them as a potential audience for consoles.
But the potential videogame audience is MUCH bigger than 155 million.
That potential is so open ended that there will be room for growth for a long long time (we're nowhere near even 1 billion much less 7 billion).

Let's go through the entire history of the console generations to see the number of the console gaming audience (arcades harder to quantify).
Only major players sales listed (handhelds & home consoles).

1st Generation
Home Consoles
Magnavox Odyssey (1972) - 330 thousand
Atari PONG (1975) - 150 thousand
Coleco Telstar (1976) - 1 million
Nintendo Color TV Game (1977) - 3 million

TOTAL Audience - 4.48 million

2nd Generation
Home Consoles
Fairchild Channel F (1976) - 250 thousand
Atari Video Computer System/2600 (1977) - 30 million
Magnavox Odyssey² (1978) - 2 million
Mattel Intellivision (1980) - 3 million
Atari 5200 (1982) - 1 million
Colecovision (1982) - 2 million
Milton Bradley Vectrex (1982) -unknown but very little

Handheld Consoles
Mattel Electronics [Auto Race, Football] (1977) - unknown but much
Milton Bradley Microvision (1979) - unknown but not much
Nintendo Game & Watch (1980) - 43.4 million

TOTAL Audience - over 81.65 million

3rd Generation
Home Consoles
Nintendo Family Computer/Nintendo Entertainment System (1983) - 61.91 million
Sega SG-1000 (1983) - unknown but low
Sega Mark III/Master System (1985) - 11.8 million
Atari 7800 (1986) - 3.77 million

Handheld Consoles
Nintendo Game & Watch (1980) - 43.4 million

TOTAL Audience - 120.88 million

4th Generation
Home Consoles
NEC PC Engine/TurboGrafx-16 (1987) - 10 million
Sega Mega Drive/Genesis (1988) - 40 million
Nintendo Super Famicom/Super Nintendo Entertainment System (1990) - 49.10 million
SNK NeoGeo Advanced Entertainment System (1991) - 1 million

Handheld Consoles
Nintendo Game Boy (1989) - 118.69 million
Atari Lynx (1989) - 500 thousand
Sega Game Gear (1990) - 15 million
NEC PC Engine GT (Game Tank)/Turbo Express (1990) - 1.5 million

TOTAL Audience -235.79 million

5th Generation
Home Consoles
3DO (1993) - 2 million
Atari Jaguar (1993) - 250 thousand
Sega Saturn (1994) - 9.4 million
Sony PlayStation (1994) - 102.49 million
Nintendo 64 (1996) - 32.93 million

Handheld Consoles
Sega Nomad (1995) - 1 million
Nintendo Virtual Boy (1995) - 770 thousand
Tiger Electronics game.com (1997) - 300 thousand
Nintendo Game Boy Color (1998) - 118.69 million (with original Game Boy)
SNK NeoGeo Pocket (1998) - 2 million
Bandai Wonderswan (1999) - 1 million

TOTAL Audience -270.83 million

6th Generation
Home Consoles
Sega Dreamcast (1998) - 10.6 million
Sony PlayStation 2 (2000) - 155 million
Nintendo Gamecube (2001) - 22 million
Microsoft XBox (2001) -24 million

Handheld Consoles
Nintendo Game Boy Advance (2001) - 81.51 million
Nokia N-Gage (2003) - 3 million
Tapwave Zodiac (2003) - 200 thousand

TOTAL Audience -296.31 million

7th Generation
Home Consoles
Microsoft XBox 360 (2005) - currently 78.7 million—according to VGChartz
Sony PlayStation 3 (2006) - currently 80.1 million—according to VGChartz
Nintendo Wii (2006) - currently 100.04 million—according to VGChartz

Handheld Consoles
Nintendo DS (2004) - currently 153.93 million
Sony PlayStation Portable (2005) - 76.3 million

TOTAL Audience - 489.07 million so far

8th Generation
Home Consoles
Nintendo Wii U (2012) - currently 3.74 million—according to VGChartz
Sony PlayStation 4 (2013) - To Be Determined
Microsoft XBox One (2013) - To Be Determined

Handheld Consoles
Nintendo 3DS (2011) - currently 35.5 million—according to VGChartz
Sony PlayStation Vita (2012) -currently 5.9 million—according to VGChartz

TOTAL Audience - 39.24 million so far

So the highest we got is a number slightly under 500 million.
500 million is only 1/14 of 7 billion.
Do you think the console audience can never go any further than 500 million all platforms combined?
Why wouldn't you? You saw it go far beyond its 4.5 million in the 1st generation.
You saw it go far beyond its 82 million in the 2nd generation.
You saw it go far beyond its 121 million in the 3rd generation.
How did it span the entire range of 200-300 million in the 4th, 5th, & 6th gens only to reach nearly 500 million in the 7th gen?

There are more people out there that can be potential console players.
And it is possible for one console to double the efforts of the top consoles of the past eras.
I spelled it out on the charts for you right here.

Atari 2600 took those handfuls of thousands & millions of the 1st gen consoles & sold 30 million.
The NES took Atari's 30 million & got to nearly 62 million.
The PS1 took NES's 62 million & got 102 million.
The PS2 took PS1's 102 million & got 155 million.

Why can't Wii U take PS2's 155 million & go further with it?
Wii was on track to do this before Nintendo withdrew the console support so why can't Wii U which will have more selling potential than Wii did?
Lots of people in the world just waiting to be console gamers.
All you have to do is make the right proposition.
Look at how much both Wii & DS expanded the gaming audience in the 7th gen.

Saturation point has not been reached yet.
There's plenty of room for growth.
I can see this potential & I will speak on it despite how unbelievable it may seem to others.

Look beyond the paper stats, zorg1000. Look beyond "the reasonable".
You can't reason with a phenomenon.
All you can do is just stand in awe.

Wii U is a phenomenon in the making.
John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

johnlucas on 30 October 2013
Torillian said:


You got internet famous off of the back of a fortunate Wii prediction that panned out.  Since then I've seen you make all kinds of ludicrous predictions about Nintendo taking over the world and doom and gloom for Playstation.  That Popzara article where you argued about PS3 dying off any time now back in 2009 or so is still one of the most embarassing things I've seen VGC publish.  So, out of curiosity, have you been right about a Sony based prediction ever?  And what's your record like for Nintendo ever since that one prediction that people love you for?  

Even if you end up right on this one, you shouldn't be lauded because you based it on a bunch of semi-religious ferver bullshit that shouldn't be rewarded instead of logic.  It's honestly quite disturbing to read.  


Fortunate?
As much grief as I got for daring to say that at that time??
Fortunate?

No, I got it right & I didn't let the naysayers deter me. Not one bit.
I challenged their mode of thinking & dared them to try a new way of thinking.
Dared them to see another way.
I made those statements when it WASN'T easy to see, when I suffered the backlash, & that's why people gave me my props for it.

And in a sense the PlayStation 3 DID die in 2009. It was reborn as the PS3 Slim that year.
They rebooted the console. Console's philosophy changed. Logo change & everything.
Total overhaul.

I will review my enitre post history & come up with a point by point list of what I got right & what I got wrong & why.
If I wasn't screwing around with that dumb website I would have had time to make more predictions.

You say even if I "end up right on this one".
The stakes are even higher this time around.
I won't be "fortunate" to get the call right. Many mocked the Gargamel out of me for this thread.
It takes balls to stand against the crowd & lay it out plain.

Once again I'm DARING them to see another way.
I'm DARING them to do away with "conventional thinking".

I said it already. Logic is only ONE way to understand the world.
Knowledge is a little more complex than that.
The power of insight & intuition is very mighty if you can harness it.

How does Logic explain this following story?

Boy, 2, survives SIX-STORY fall onto concrete
Excerpt:

A baby somehow survived falling several floors onto concrete, crawling away with only minor injuries.

The two-year-old boy fell six stories from a balcony Sunday in a Toronto suburb. The tot landed on a concrete patio and somehow survived with only a few lacerations to his face.

Logic says that if you fall from a 6-story building & hit the concrete, you'll probably end up dead or at the very least severely injured.
So how did this happen?
There's a lot more to this universe than we understand.
John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

joesampson on 30 October 2013

Wow, this is pretty ridiculous. No offense John Lucas, but your points are hard to follow. You speak in walls of one line texts full of hyperbole akin to a evangelist preacher. I have read zero valid points in your arguments that are backed up by any logic.

I agree with Seece and Zorg here. While the Wii U will not continue to be a complete failure due to the strength of Nintendo's first party franchises, your predictions are way off and the Wii U will likely sell less than both the X1 and PS4 at around 40-60 million units. The original Wii caught lightning in a bottle with a traditionally non-gamer audience with its innovative motion controls. However, this type of audience is pretty fickle and will not necessarily stay loyal to these fads.

Related to the PS3 and 360's lifetime sales I wouldn't bet hard money that they will beat the Wii but to dismiss the possibility, especially after Nintendo has discontinued production, is absolutely absurd. Given that the PS3 and 360 are not backwards compatible, they have huge libraries of incredible games, and will likely get price cuts in 2014, I'll bet gamers looking for a cheaper system with a good library will continue to drive good sales for both companies.

Lastly, these arguments against hardware power are absurd. First of all, while we certainly are beginning to reach diminishing returns on graphical fidelity, many gamers still desire further improvements towards more photo-realistic graphics to improve the immersion of certain genres. Don't try to dismiss this. Just because graphical fidelity doesn't affect your enjoyment of Nintendo games like Mario and Pokemon, doesn't mean that there aren't other market segments that value these improvements. Further, your example of AC IV is deceptive given that it was originally built with 7th gen technology in mind. We will see further progress in next gen exclusive games like The Division, Destiny, and the inevitable first part Sony and Microsoft studio games.

Second and more importantly, hardware power will contribute to far more than just graphical fidelity. We will be able to see games with more complex and detailed environments, better physics, better AI, and more advanced features not possible with current hardware. For example, cities in GTA might finally have realistic traffic, pedestrians, fully destructible environments, and much larger detailed worlds. RPGs may be able to rid themselves of cumbersome dialog tree interfaces and allow natural language technologies with Kinect and PS Eye voice (a la Siri) to have more open ended speech. More powerful hardware will only free developers to build more innovative features into their games.



johnlucas on 30 October 2013
joesampson said:
Wow, this is pretty ridiculous. No offense John Lucas, but your points are hard to follow. You speak in walls of one line texts full of hyperbole akin to a evangelist preacher. I have read zero valid points in your arguments that are backed up by any logic.

I agree with Seece and Zorg here. While the Wii U will not continue to be a complete failure due to the strength of Nintendo's first party franchises, your predictions are way off and the Wii U will likely sell less than both the X1 and PS4 at around 40-60 million units. The original Wii caught lightning in a bottle with a traditionally non-gamer audience with its innovative motion controls. However, this type of audience is pretty fickle and will not necessarily stay loyal to these fads.

Related to the PS3 and 360's lifetime sales I wouldn't bet hard money that they will beat the Wii but to dismiss the possibility, especially after Nintendo has discontinued production, is absolutely absurd. Given that the PS3 and 360 are not backwards compatible, they have huge libraries of incredible games, and will likely get price cuts in 2014, I'll bet gamers looking for a cheaper system with a good library will continue to drive good sales for both companies.

Lastly, these arguments against hardware power are absurd. First of all, while we certainly are beginning to reach diminishing returns on graphical fidelity, many gamers still desire further improvements towards more photo-realistic graphics to improve the immersion of certain genres. Don't try to dismiss this. Just because graphical fidelity doesn't affect your enjoyment of Nintendo games like Mario and Pokemon, doesn't mean that there aren't other market segments that value these improvements. Further, your example of AC IV is deceptive given that it was originally built with 7th gen technology in mind. We will see further progress in next gen exclusive games like The Division, Destiny, and the inevitable first part Sony and Microsoft studio games.

Second and more importantly, hardware power will contribute to far more than just graphical fidelity. We will be able to see games with more complex and detailed environments, better physics, better AI, and more advanced features not possible with current hardware. For example, cities in GTA might finally have realistic traffic, pedestrians, fully destructible environments, and much larger detailed worlds. RPGs may be able to rid themselves of cumbersome dialog tree interfaces and allow natural language technologies with Kinect and PS Eye voice (a la Siri) to have more open ended speech. More powerful hardware will only free developers to build more innovative features into their games.


All I can say joesampson is that you're backing the wrong horse. I wouldn't follow Seece if I were you.

About that 7th gen overlapping the 8th gen argument. Sony can't afford that.
The PS4 MUST supercede the PS3 or Sony Computer Entertainment is in major trouble.
Here's that article again just for you.

PlayStation division posts losses, PS3, Vita sales lower than expected
Excerpt:

The firm's gaming division, however, posted operating losses of 14.8 billion yen (£98.7 million / $150.1 million) - compared to 3.5 billion yen (£23.3 million / $35.5 million) during the same period in 2012 - and flat revenues of 117.9 billion yen (£789.2 millon / $1.2 billion).

The increased operating losses have been attributed to research and development of the PS4, and declining PS3 and Vita sales.

The firm had originally forecast combined PS3/PS2 sales of 10 million for the entire year, but has so far only managed to shift 1.1 million.

Likewise, Sony has forecast 5 million Vita sales, but only managed to sell 600,000 in the three-month period ending June 30.

Despite warnings that operating costs will continue to deteriorate, the company hopes to turn its gaming business around with the release of the PS4.


In 2012 the PS3 already could not stop SCE from losing $35.5 million in their 1st Quarter from April 1st to June 30th.
In 2013 the PS3 couldn't stop SCE from losing over 4 times that amount at $150.1 million in their 1st Quarter from April 1st to June 30th.
Part of the reason behind 2013's drop is the preparation of the PS4 for the market.
So Sony needs the PS4 to be a success.

I already mentioned in this post here the succession of failures Sony has dealt with since the 2005's PSP.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5760090

If PS4 is caught in PS3's shadow, how are they gonna effectively pay back those expenses for the PS4?
Especially since PS3 ALREADY IS NOT bringing enough money into SCE as it is?
Is that my lack of logic? No, that's very logical.

PS3 is not stopping SCE's losses now. A price drop makes it even harder for the PS3 to stop it.
And a PS3 outselling a PS4 too long makes SCE drown since they'll be stuck with an eroding console overshadowing the one they pinned the hopes of the company on.

Remember the following quote comes directly from the President & Group CEO of Sony Computer Entertainment, Inc.
Andrew House: "Sony Computer Entertainment Isn't Allowed To Fail Anymore with PS4"
Excerpt:

"Sony Computer Entertainment isn’t allowed to fail anymore with PS4, because the game business for Sony is a “Core” (business) that embodies a fusion of both hardware and software."

Don't back the wrong horse, joesampson.
Time will vindicate my words.
John Lucas



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!